NZ will never grow! altered by request to ---> NZ's economy is unlikely to grow
Jun 25th 2011, 4:29 pm
#61
Truth is the safest lie.
Joined: Jul 2008
Location: @ the beach.
Posts: 7,247
Re: NZ will never grow!
Talking to some friends in the UK starting graduate jobs now (proper graduates BEng, BBS, BSc etc), usually being paid between £21-24k/yr (those that can even find jobs! 
) which is probably about the same starting rate as New Zealand (but our unemployment rate is lower).
The thing is I can’t see the trend reversing soon either. These last couple of years have been tough on New Zealand, no one could foresee the scale of natural disasters, but we’ve been making progress in the right direction despite the setbacks.
- Both the UK and NZ are aiming to balance their budgets by 2015.
- New Zealand has a debt to GDP ratio is about 25% and the UK is about 75%.
- New Zealand external debt is at U.S. $ 33,418 per capita, the UK is at about U.S. $ 144,757 per capita.
- GDP per capita of New Zealand is $32,145/per capita while the UK is at about $36,120/per capita.
(Statistics taken from wikipedia)
So I suspect we’ll continue in this direction compared to the UK for a while, we have less of a hole to dig ourselves out of than the UK. I think it also makes clear why the trapdoor has just fallen open in the UK regarding their debt problems. Their financial success during the property bubble, at least in part, appears to have been a house of cards IMO.
Edited to add: In the interests of full disclosure I’m not an economist and it’s possible someone better informed could throw more light on the issue. That said the statistics appear pretty startling for the UK.
) which is probably about the same starting rate as New Zealand (but our unemployment rate is lower).The thing is I can’t see the trend reversing soon either. These last couple of years have been tough on New Zealand, no one could foresee the scale of natural disasters, but we’ve been making progress in the right direction despite the setbacks.
- Both the UK and NZ are aiming to balance their budgets by 2015.
- New Zealand has a debt to GDP ratio is about 25% and the UK is about 75%.
- New Zealand external debt is at U.S. $ 33,418 per capita, the UK is at about U.S. $ 144,757 per capita.
- GDP per capita of New Zealand is $32,145/per capita while the UK is at about $36,120/per capita.
(Statistics taken from wikipedia)
So I suspect we’ll continue in this direction compared to the UK for a while, we have less of a hole to dig ourselves out of than the UK. I think it also makes clear why the trapdoor has just fallen open in the UK regarding their debt problems. Their financial success during the property bubble, at least in part, appears to have been a house of cards IMO.
Edited to add: In the interests of full disclosure I’m not an economist and it’s possible someone better informed could throw more light on the issue. That said the statistics appear pretty startling for the UK.
Last edited by Charismatic; Jun 25th 2011 at 4:36 pm.
Jun 25th 2011, 5:29 pm
#62
It is what it is Member
Joined: Feb 2010
Location: Blockhouse Bay, Auckland
Posts: 2,797
Re: NZ will never grow!
Don´t mention the "T for
Spoiler:
Jun 25th 2011, 9:38 pm
#64
It is what it is Member
Joined: Feb 2010
Location: Blockhouse Bay, Auckland
Posts: 2,797
Jun 26th 2011, 1:13 am
#65
Truth is the safest lie.
Joined: Jul 2008
Location: @ the beach.
Posts: 7,247
Re: NZ will never grow!
New Zealands public debt is 31% of GDP, Net external debt is 127% of GDP.
UK’s public debt is 76.7% of GDP, Net external debt is 398% of GDP. <--Beany's fault! Location, location...double mortgage to foreign lender.
Ireland’s public debt is 93.6% of GDP, Net external debt is 1224% of GDP.<-- Built more houses than they now have people. Your children can have a full size playhouse.
Greece’s public debt is 130.2% of GDP, Net external debt is 165% of GDP. <--Pay taxes and stop being corrupt? We'll riot to keep corruption, it's our culture.
From that Ireland appears particularly bad in terms of private sector debt but it turns out no one is worried about you or me meeting repayments, we are safe. People are worried about states meeting their debt obligations.
Last year New Zealand added 3.3% to our public debt, <--How much for a MPs Limo? Outrageous, should have got a Toyota Corolla.
UK added 13.3%, <-- Busy with foreign war and collapsing banks.
Ireland added 12.2%, <-- Reading up on recession and making a plan.
Greece added 9.8%. <-- Rioting and robbing their children of futures.
So as you can see the UK and Ireland have years before they catch Greece even though they are running a higher rate of debt accumulation. As I’m sure you can imagine the difference between NZ trimming 3.3% and the UK trying to trim 13.3% of GDP by 2015 will also play into our hands. Also Ireland has made deeper cuts for 2011 to reduce their deficit so they are seen as less of a threat, the Greeks on the other hand are rioting and not cutting spending back so they are very risky. Reflected in the countries credit ratings:
New Zealand – AA+ <--Recession, will we get it as well?
UK – AAA <--In a spot of bother but not yet serious.
Ireland – BBB+ <-- In big trouble and dealing with the problem
Greece – CCC <----Lowest rating you can get without actually defaulting!
New Zealand doesn’t get the AAA because our economy isn’t diversified enough (what happens if people stop drinking milks and eating sheeps?
) but we should keep our current rating, the UK and U.S. might fall back a notch.
Ideally we’ll stabilize spending and balance our budget, when things get better start to get better buy back our debt so our children aren't left with the bills
. What I'm really saying, in a very long winded way, is that we have been prudent and are in no danger as long as you lot keep working.
So yeah...the thread title may be innacurate IMO.
UK’s public debt is 76.7% of GDP, Net external debt is 398% of GDP. <--Beany's fault! Location, location...double mortgage to foreign lender.
Ireland’s public debt is 93.6% of GDP, Net external debt is 1224% of GDP.<-- Built more houses than they now have people. Your children can have a full size playhouse.
Greece’s public debt is 130.2% of GDP, Net external debt is 165% of GDP. <--Pay taxes and stop being corrupt? We'll riot to keep corruption, it's our culture.
From that Ireland appears particularly bad in terms of private sector debt but it turns out no one is worried about you or me meeting repayments, we are safe. People are worried about states meeting their debt obligations.
Last year New Zealand added 3.3% to our public debt, <--How much for a MPs Limo? Outrageous, should have got a Toyota Corolla.
UK added 13.3%, <-- Busy with foreign war and collapsing banks.
Ireland added 12.2%, <-- Reading up on recession and making a plan.
Greece added 9.8%. <-- Rioting and robbing their children of futures.
So as you can see the UK and Ireland have years before they catch Greece even though they are running a higher rate of debt accumulation. As I’m sure you can imagine the difference between NZ trimming 3.3% and the UK trying to trim 13.3% of GDP by 2015 will also play into our hands. Also Ireland has made deeper cuts for 2011 to reduce their deficit so they are seen as less of a threat, the Greeks on the other hand are rioting and not cutting spending back so they are very risky. Reflected in the countries credit ratings:
New Zealand – AA+ <--Recession, will we get it as well?
UK – AAA <--In a spot of bother but not yet serious.
Ireland – BBB+ <-- In big trouble and dealing with the problem
Greece – CCC <----Lowest rating you can get without actually defaulting!
New Zealand doesn’t get the AAA because our economy isn’t diversified enough (what happens if people stop drinking milks and eating sheeps?
) but we should keep our current rating, the UK and U.S. might fall back a notch.Ideally we’ll stabilize spending and balance our budget, when things get better start to get better buy back our debt so our children aren't left with the bills
. What I'm really saying, in a very long winded way, is that we have been prudent and are in no danger as long as you lot keep working.So yeah...the thread title may be innacurate IMO.
Jun 26th 2011, 10:05 pm
#66
Forum Regular
Joined: Dec 2010
Location: west yorkshire - heading for Cambridge NZ
Posts: 133
Re: NZ will never grow!
Well, I would tend to disagree with the title of the room. I have been in auckland for ten days now. We are just getting settled and I feel comfportable with the growing activity I am seeing reklated to infrastructure development. Projects in Energy generation will top over $100m of investment in new generation development, transport investment will exceed $500m over the next three years and there are discussions regarding ports and harbours and new manufacturers currently on the table across both sides of the island. I advise banks and investors. By the way my move was permanent !!...............All the best folks 
Jun 27th 2011, 12:41 am
#67
Just Joined
Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 12
Re: NZ will never grow!
NZ south island is one of the emptiest part of NZ more like a huge farm with a few locals and farmers, with the strive to bring Asians and from other parts of Europe, the effort is merely useless after the few earthquakes that occurred in Christchurch in the recent times which got most of the investors scared to even step into the south island, New Zealand should improve and make it easy to bring more migrant workers investors in order to improve the quality of living and increasing jobs and businesses around the south region.
No wonder why most of the nzers are flocking to Aussie for a better lifestyle and pay!!!! what a shame...
NZ will take another 100 years to be 5 million in population lol.. figure that in low wage terms just get lower and lower the wages and tax get higher..
And about the south island lol who would wanna go to that shaked zone, most of the Asian and outside investors left now and probably aint ever coming back and NZers are flocking off to Ozzie for a better lifestyle and wages..
Gotta tell ya mate NZ is lost!
Jim
No wonder why most of the nzers are flocking to Aussie for a better lifestyle and pay!!!! what a shame...
NZ will take another 100 years to be 5 million in population lol.. figure that in low wage terms just get lower and lower the wages and tax get higher..
And about the south island lol who would wanna go to that shaked zone, most of the Asian and outside investors left now and probably aint ever coming back and NZers are flocking off to Ozzie for a better lifestyle and wages..
Gotta tell ya mate NZ is lost!
Jim
Jun 27th 2011, 9:42 am
#68
We're HERE!!!
Joined: Jul 2009
Location: New Zealand!
Posts: 877
Re: NZ will never grow!
If the economy in Oz were to go belly up does that mean Aussies would flock to New Zealand? 
Jun 27th 2011, 3:57 pm
#70
BE Forum Addict
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 1,820
Re: NZ will never grow! altered by request to ---> NZ's economy is unlikely to grow
Another thread I missed 
Jun 27th 2011, 8:32 pm
#75
It is what it is Member
Joined: Feb 2010
Location: Blockhouse Bay, Auckland
Posts: 2,797
