Stephen Jones

Where are the best places to look in order to gauge the current state of the NZ economy and where it will go in the future?

All suitable 'clean' ideas will be well received.


Steve

Genesis

$o to www.stuff.co.nz or simply google the question. Or google Brian Gaynor nz or Chris Lee nz. Or google the 'dominion post nz' or the 'nz herald'. They both have good finance sections.

They are both NZ finance gurus of a kind. My take on it being a keen listener to quality radio is that the NZ economy is pretty stuffed. The personal debt of the avearge kiwi is getting on for C90% of the GDP. The housing market is knackered. Many are exiling to Oz simply because the pay is way better and NZ is a low wage economy. Govt debt is getting a wee bit out of control (nothing like the Uk), but the outlook is not good. The govt has just had to bail out a finance co (linked to property etc) to the tune of 1.7 billion NZ$s. They reckon they will get a huge amount of it back. Yeah right. When Hanover 'gave' its loan book away it was worth $396mill. Within 12 months it has been revised to C$70 million. NZ property market is only going one way at the moment and its not up. The kiwi is madly overvalued which is not good but despite that our exports are up..how strange is that?

I'd have a good look at Oz 1st. The strongest and most resilient economy there is.

Charismatic

Statistics New Zealand is a government run organisation that collects data on a variety of measures of economy (and other aspects of society) in New Zealand: http://www.stats.govt.nz/

Great country to live in but watch out for the traps.

tiri

look out interest.co.nz and the national business review - www.nbr.co.nz

janek

You know a lot more about these things than me Genesis but from my simplistic point of view I don't find it strange that exports are up.
If NZ produces something and the other countries value that product then it will sell abroad. If it is not valued then they won't buy it. Just my view, but all this exporting is bound to strengthen the NZ $ isn't it??

Genesis

I don't know much about ought. However I do find it strange that the kiwi is about 25-30% overvalued thus it means the NZ export will cost the purchaser in whatever country she/he is in similarly more. Maybe whatever they are buying they can sell at an inflated price and still make a margin. And you are right the more the dollar is traded in NZ exports the stronger it will get. However Oz has just indicated that it will keep upping its OCR whereas NZ is not in that position..thank God as a hike in NZ interest rates will only fuel the stupid currency's strength!

Stephen Jones

[QUOTE=Stephen Jones;8859825]Where are the best places to look in order to gauge the current state of the NZ economy and where it will go in the future?

All suitable 'clean' ideas will be well received.


Thanks for all the replies so far...

Srvr

Wooly_Cow

The Dom Post online is a pretty good place...but you can get most stories through Stuff.

The NZ ecconomy seems to me to be the most counter indicative market I have ever come across. I mean where else in the wolrd would an earthquake that destorys billions of value in the 2nd city be regarded as an ecconomic boon. (The arguement is it will kick start the building industry with money that was already saved up and invested in some part in overseas stocks and insurance companies)

However long term I do wonder about the competetiveness of the NZ market. There is just not enough investment in infrstructure, the labour force remains a couple of decades back in terms of flexibilty and skills, and those who buck that trend, head off over the Ditch.

Nevertheless as a primary producer / exporter NZ will be OK as long as people need to eat ...just don't expect stellar growth like Aussie!