Wooly_Cow

How much worse can it get? Try 2 and under. Apparently there were support levels at 2.25, 2.15 and the next one is 2....at the moment it is regulary testing 2.15 - if it breaks that watch out for steep falls.

On a related note, how does everyone think the move from the $US as a reserve currency will impact the $NZ or indeed the pound?

On one hand funds might be moved into other currencies and the Kiwi peso might get some spin off say the $Aus....but on the other surely this is an indication of more uncertain times ahead, so risk aversion might step in (no-one wants to invest in another Iceland!) ....and on a third hand (well this is finance and not reality so I can have three hands) if stock markets get spooked by a potential oil price hike due to it being sold in anotehr currency ....the Kiwi is closly aligned with the stength of global markets...

Any thoughts?


Oh and I've sort of planned to keep a stash in the UK, for the LONG term i.e. changed my retirement plans, investing less here so we don't need to transfer funds just now.

We will keep renting despite the terrible lack of choice and quality, hopefully some recnet forecats (i.e. today) will be right and house prices will have further to fall (sorry for any house owners )

Wooly_Cow

Here's a link to references to my previous comments....

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8298182.stm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8298037.stm

....maybe the next chapter has just started - banks intervening to support the dollar, analysts predicting 'it's not over', first signs the housing rebound may be stalling.......

Charismatic

Agreed Wooly but I'm still worried about the long term effects, silly growth in money supply etc. These are perfect conditions for stagflation. OPEC cutting oil supplies trying to drive energy prices up, governments still panicking and not controlling money supplies (and some governments doing much worse!), persistent low productivity etc. This is textbook stuff and we are getting it wrong.

Cadibel

Have to say, I'm with Wooly Cow in leaving our money in the UK. With house prices being so cr*** there, we have decided to rent our house in the UK for a year, rent in NZ for a year, and then reassess.

let's just hope it isn't below 2 by then...

chocolate cake

I've also money in the UK and watched the GBP dive since I sold my house. I've not intention of exchanging at the mo, and will be renting for somewhile here until the rate improves. Sure the UK economy isn't great, but the NZ isn't in any great shakes either, so it's difficult to see the imbalance in the exchange rate getting much worse in the longer term.

Re: GBP v US$ graph earlier, the last 20 years don't show any notable decline, there was virtual parity at one stage in the 80's.

On the NZ$'s strength it wouldn't be so bad if we were seeing some cheaper prices on imported goods, but we ain't, it seems the retailers are just pocketing the differences, yet the no doubt prices will soon rise when the NZ$ weakens.

strawbie

It is quite concerning for those of us waiting to make the move out to NZ, but at the moment we are more concerned about selling our house and getting over that hurdle. we are in a fortunate position that WHEN it sells we have a fair amount of equity in it, thats when we'll worry about what to do with it!! probably leave it in the Uk, depending what the rate is and just draw out when we need to pay rent, etc. It does affect plans, you have an idea of how many Nz dollars you will have and its scary to see how much lower that reality is at the moment!! Fingers crossed for a recovery.

Budawang

I've just come back from a holiday in the South Island and people in the tourism business are all saying there has been a drop in visitors from North America and Europe. However, this has been balanced by a big jump in visitors from Australia due to the strong AUD and relatively robust economy. Australians are surprisingly popular over there at the moment (probably won't last)

BEVS

Probably won't.


I must admit to being one of those that is NOT watching the exchange rates every move. Nor am I following the recession and recovery news that much. Been there and done that last time and also during my early working years. I suppose I just have the que sera sera attitude this time , even though I do have funds to bring over which would ease our financial lives here no-end.

My sympathy to those just arriving though. They'll maybe need to entrench with what is available and sit it out, as we are doing, before bringing over any funds they have.

Perry Groves

2.16 on the Richter scale?

Jan n Neil

Looking like we are gonna bite the bullet and change, F**K it it,s only money

Neil

Jan n Neil

We have pulled all our money out of the UK. On balance, the price of type of house we want to buy could go up, as the one we are buying is a good price at the moment.

Also Halo told me that they probably expect a rate bottoming at under 2

The trend is your friend, they said, and told me that many many people were pulling money out of the UK right now.

So, our deed is done..... no looking back, well except at the halcyon days of 2.5 that is


But we are signing on a dream house tonight, out of the question in the UK, so onwards and upwards

TeamEmbo

Good on ya At the end of the day it is all relative I guess and if you're getting what you want at this moment in time then fair play. That's all we have really anyway isn't it? To live for this moment, as you never know what tomorrow might bring.

Am so very pleased for you.

Wishing you both the best of luck and looking forward to the house warming and grand tour of your new country estate

Jan n Neil

House warming - Oh Yes!!!!


BTW it's not the one we showed you, it's across the road, more house and land for less money, better quality too.

We is happy bunnies today. Sod the exchange rate.






Which, by the way, seems to be in free fall at the moment.............

Jan

MnB

Ummm.....any chance of having the house warming in february???

Should be on holiday on South Island by then.....would be very happy to gate crash!!

Hope everything goes well with the house purchase ....good on you for biting that bullet!!
B x
Ps how about another uppdate from you guys?! lol

Genesis

Probably a very prudent move given that you have found what you want. I would do the same too. You could be in limbo for eons waiting for a better rate and you need to get on with your lives, we bought our place 4 years ago and as such we are somewhat settled and it would pain me waaaaaaaaaay to much to change any money just now as we have no real need for it at these shite rates.

I may well stick half of it in a Nationwide offshore account for a rate thats 5 times better than the UK one and just hope that the IoM does not have its guarantee scheme knackered by 15 banks falling over at once. One assumes the Nationwide have SOME faith in the IoM system not failing???

Well done to you and as you say its in free fall and has gone well below the 2.15 resistance barrier that was talked of recently. It looks like its all the way to the bottom of the lift shaft!! I don't understand why people are selling their GBPs unless they absolutely have to..ie to buy a house and get on with their lives.

It will get better. The kiwi will not stay this strong for an extended period of time. It will change in the next year (or ten!!). I personally think NZ has a fiscal shit storm brewing and we will see the kiwi lose value in the coming months...everyone says the same thing..the strong kiwi is going to ruin much of what is key to NZs prosperity.

Personally I think its best you hang on and wait out the pound's weakness..unless you need the money for summat significant like J and N.