UAE economy
Oct 23rd 2008, 10:30 pm
#61
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Aug 2007
Posts: 7,646
Re: UAE economy
I've always found it easy to appreciate the beauty in a disorganised English garden, late summer was beautiful where I lived in Herefordshire. I always recall fondly the Royal Forest of Dean and Wye valley, there are few places blessed with such easily appreciable beauty (which is just as well or it would have been lost on me 
).These things happen Eva, denial is futile and escape improbable (Subsistance farming perhaps?). If there is solace to be found it should be in the fact that we are not alone and "every dog has it's day".
Oh hush.
Sorry I was too harsh on you.Shouldn't have called you cynical.
Oct 23rd 2008, 10:37 pm
#62
Truth is the safest lie.
Joined: Jul 2008
Location: @ the beach.
Posts: 7,243
Re: UAE economy
Oct 25th 2008, 8:36 pm
#63
Gold-Helmeted Member
Joined: Dec 2004
Location: Setubal-ish
Posts: 691
The Dubai crash begins
http://www.arabianbusiness.com/53594...andstill?ln=en
Banks have slashed LTV (loan to value) from 90% to 65%. Which means speculators or other buyers need to put 35% down. Few have that kind of cash, and those who do just are not willing to.
Expect a week or two of denial and "its just a little temporary problem" before the landslide begins.
But there are more factors that are going to hammer the market:
1) Strong AED means Brits and Europeans get much less for their money, and it drives those in Dubai to cash out and leave
2) Oil prices plummeting... from 100 to 65 in just a month and down from 147 in just three months - some now predicting 35 bucks by end of year
3) UK and European recession - combine that with high AED and how is tourism in Dubai going to shape up? Where are all the visitors going to come from?
And not to forget
4) Sentiment - the aura of invincibility has been popped, the stock market is tanking on expectations of a real estate crash. If you were interested in investment, you'd be much better off buying real estate shares which have already crashed in value, if property defies gravity and even remains level, those shares are a bargain.
Once the slowdown really bites, more building sites will suspend work, many offplan schemes will go bust, construction will stall and staff will be laid off. Unlike Europe, those unemployed will leave the country in a matter of weeks.
Turns out even the Dubai govt is going to need a bailout from AD. But they have their own problems, oil price worries and their sovereign wealth fund has been invested in US and other shares and taking a right old pounding.
The collapse always follows the peak of hubris.
Banks have slashed LTV (loan to value) from 90% to 65%. Which means speculators or other buyers need to put 35% down. Few have that kind of cash, and those who do just are not willing to.
Expect a week or two of denial and "its just a little temporary problem" before the landslide begins.
But there are more factors that are going to hammer the market:
1) Strong AED means Brits and Europeans get much less for their money, and it drives those in Dubai to cash out and leave
2) Oil prices plummeting... from 100 to 65 in just a month and down from 147 in just three months - some now predicting 35 bucks by end of year
3) UK and European recession - combine that with high AED and how is tourism in Dubai going to shape up? Where are all the visitors going to come from?
And not to forget
4) Sentiment - the aura of invincibility has been popped, the stock market is tanking on expectations of a real estate crash. If you were interested in investment, you'd be much better off buying real estate shares which have already crashed in value, if property defies gravity and even remains level, those shares are a bargain.
Once the slowdown really bites, more building sites will suspend work, many offplan schemes will go bust, construction will stall and staff will be laid off. Unlike Europe, those unemployed will leave the country in a matter of weeks.
Turns out even the Dubai govt is going to need a bailout from AD. But they have their own problems, oil price worries and their sovereign wealth fund has been invested in US and other shares and taking a right old pounding.
The collapse always follows the peak of hubris.
