Lockdown

Old Apr 22nd 2020, 6:26 pm
  #166  
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Default Re: Lockdown

Originally Posted by csdf
Understood, but that stimulus package isn't disappearing into thin air, it's being spent and injected into the economy and ultimately into people's hands. Whether it's the right people is another matter.
It will probably go the same path as all the others... asset booms that benefit the rich, and paid for by taxing the middle classes. The poor will always remain poor.

Long term, we are building in more structural inequality. It is the structural inequality that worries me more than anything else. Luckily, I'm on the right side of the equation, and so will my children.

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Old Apr 22nd 2020, 7:57 pm
  #167  
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Default Re: Lockdown

Originally Posted by Millhouse
It will probably go the same path as all the others... asset booms that benefit the rich, and paid for by taxing the middle classes. The poor will always remain poor.

Long term, we are building in more structural inequality. It is the structural inequality that worries me more than anything else. Luckily, I'm on the right side of the equation, and so will my children.
Each one of these various episodes does exactly that. It's been that way for centuries if not longer.
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Old Apr 22nd 2020, 9:35 pm
  #168  
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Default Re: Lockdown

Originally Posted by Millhouse
World GDP is around $85,000 billion
World population is around 8 billion
GDP/ person = $10,000

Cost of COVID - estimated between 2,000 and 4,000 billion
Worst case number of estimated deaths is between 2 and 50 million
2,000-4000 billion cost / 2-50 million = between 40,000 - 2,000,000 per life saved
So somewhere between 4 and 200 times the GDP per person.

Now if it's mostly the old and ill dying, then maybe we should have used a lower GDP/person as these people could be economically inactive.

Worth it? That's the political decision that no one wants to make.

What we do know is that the economic destruction we are doing will drive millions into poverty and expose them to all sorts of illnesses and premature deaths that won't get accounted for.
When do we just blame Brexit instead?
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Old Apr 22nd 2020, 9:35 pm
  #169  
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Default Re: Lockdown

seems we might be unlocking sooner rather than later.
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Old Apr 22nd 2020, 9:38 pm
  #170  
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Default Re: Lockdown

Abu Dhabi recently cancelled all bus services, and have now started spraying disinfectant during the day (a lorry just went past my house an hour ago). And field hospitals continue to open with 1000s of beds of capacity. Are things opening up in Dubai?
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Old Apr 22nd 2020, 9:56 pm
  #171  
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Default Re: Lockdown

Originally Posted by csdf
Abu Dhabi recently cancelled all bus services, and have now started spraying disinfectant during the day (a lorry just went past my house an hour ago). And field hospitals continue to open with 1000s of beds of capacity. Are things opening up in Dubai?
The opening strategy has been released, maybe to pacify groups wanting more freedom over Ramadan. It anticipates mall reopenings but at limited capacity, a daily walk etc. It doesn’t have any dates but it’s got a lot of people excited.

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Old Apr 22nd 2020, 9:58 pm
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Default Re: Lockdown

Originally Posted by Millhouse
The opening strategy has been released, maybe to pacify groups wanting more freedom over Ramadan. It anticipates mall reopenings but at limited capacity, a daily walk etc. It doesn’t have any dates but it’s got a lot of people excited.
It's unfortunate isn't it. If you read it, it's clear that there's going to be some new 'freedoms' but not today....but the average commenters seem to think it's carte blanche to be a helmet.
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Old Apr 22nd 2020, 10:22 pm
  #173  
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Default Re: Lockdown

Originally Posted by Scamp
It's unfortunate isn't it. If you read it, it's clear that there's going to be some new 'freedoms' but not today....but the average commenters seem to think it's carte blanche to be a helmet.
The bit I'm looking forward to is opening the malls with 75% of the parking closed. Will be a total shit show when 100% of the people show up.
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Old Apr 22nd 2020, 10:39 pm
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Default Re: Lockdown

Originally Posted by Millhouse
The bit I'm looking forward to is opening the malls with 75% of the parking closed. Will be a total shit show when 100% of the people show up.
The first Friday night it happens, can you imagine?
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Old Apr 22nd 2020, 11:53 pm
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Default Re: Lockdown

Originally Posted by Scamp
And so we begin.
WHO estimates half the deaths are from care homes. We can reasonably infer many if not most of the deaths outside care homes are still among a similar demographics who still live in their own homes.

The data from China, as corrupt as it might be, was still mirrored by Italy. Average age of death 80ish with existing comorbidities.

In the US, one state, Minnesota, has an average age at 84. Massachusetts is around 81.

That's the data. But we're treating the virus as if it was killing broad swathes of the population. But it's not. As Millhouse points out, the economic toll on broad swathes of the population is a killer in it's own way.
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Old Apr 23rd 2020, 12:03 am
  #176  
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Default Re: Lockdown

Originally Posted by Millhouse
seems we might be unlocking sooner rather than later.
Economic reality, plain and simple. Plus human nature.

Hard to keep younger working people locked up over something that by and large doesn't hurt them.
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Old Apr 23rd 2020, 12:52 am
  #177  
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Default Re: Lockdown

Originally Posted by DXBtoDOH
WHO estimates half the deaths are from care homes. We can reasonably infer many if not most of the deaths outside care homes are still among a similar demographics who still live in their own homes.

The data from China, as corrupt as it might be, was still mirrored by Italy. Average age of death 80ish with existing comorbidities.

In the US, one state, Minnesota, has an average age at 84. Massachusetts is around 81.

That's the data. But we're treating the virus as if it was killing broad swathes of the population. But it's not. As Millhouse points out, the economic toll on broad swathes of the population is a killer in it's own way.
I don't think anyone really disagrees with you that the economic toll is huge btw.
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Old Apr 23rd 2020, 12:53 am
  #178  
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Default Re: Lockdown

Originally Posted by Millhouse
It will probably go the same path as all the others... asset booms that benefit the rich, and paid for by taxing the middle classes. The poor will always remain poor.

Long term, we are building in more structural inequality. It is the structural inequality that worries me more than anything else. Luckily, I'm on the right side of the equation, and so will my children.
My American mate commented he thought the recovery would be a two tiered one. A rapid V-shaped recovery for the asset-owning classes and a Great Depression II (decade long) for the workers. He divided America broadly into 2/5ths in the asset-owning classes and 3/5ths into the workers. His reasoning was that the service sector was going to take a long term structural clobbering.

In UK it's probably 1/3 asset owning classes and 2/3rds workers?
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Old Apr 23rd 2020, 12:54 am
  #179  
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Default Re: Lockdown

Originally Posted by Scamp
The first Friday night it happens, can you imagine?
Set up a YouTube channel, I'd pay to watch that.
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Old Apr 23rd 2020, 12:55 am
  #180  
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Default Re: Lockdown

Originally Posted by NorthernLad
Set up a YouTube channel, I'd pay to watch that.
Livestreaming carnage from the mall of people trying to get in. It would just be a solid car horn noise.
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