Novocastrian

Thanks for this. So, there are seriously taken people who argue that the UK would be able to sustain it's trade relationship with the EEA from outside? In the face of tariffs? Do any of them give credible comparative examples?

Dream on, and anticipate the "City" meaning Frankfurt in 2018.

Shard

That's a simplistic analysis. Who is to say what tariffs might arise? Keep in mid the UK is a significant importer of European goods given the population size and wealth.

London also has competitive advantage in being a financial marketplace because of the English language and the depth of expertise (financial and legal). That's not to say it would be impossible for a European centre to usurp london, but it would not be automatic as you suggest. Indeed, protection of the City is one of the planks of the Eurosceptics argument.

Novocastrian

Dream on. But while doing so recall that we're actually now discussing the effects of the UK leaving the EEA, not the EU.

The referendum will be about the latter and unless accompanied by the former will make a difference only in so far as the UK abrogates power to determine it's economic and political future.

Novocastrian

Huh? If international financial stuff is conducted largely in English, which it is, why does that give London an advantage?

Are you suggesting that the perfectly fluent Johnny Foreigner in Frankfurt or Paris is somehow at a disadvantage vis a vis a bumbling Etonian in London?

If so why? Especially since the true language of commerce is mathematics.

Shard

Far fewer Etonians in the City than there used to be. Quite an international lot these days, and they all speak English and like a world class city like London. Americans particularly like it, given their linguistic abilities. Ditto Asians. I don't dispute that a financial centre can move (especially these days) but do think that there is sufficient international inertia for London to maintain it's role.

Incidentally, the language of commerce is not purely mathematics, law and relationships play a big part too.

jimf

Elucidate on...

Never seen any ranking with UK as 6th biggest. Where is that from?

So it's down in part (other reasons unstated) due to "conservative governments since Thatcher" ie 7 years of J.M. and 5 years of D.C. Neither of those could reasonably be considered to be particularly negative or abrasive. What were the triumphs of the T.B. EU friendly approach?

Novocastrian

From my deep reserves of irony. Is it really 7th?

Do you know that? I'm sick of your shit. Live well is Calgary, or wherever.

MillieF

Surely the more worrying aspect of all of this is that the whole nature of 'Europe'
looks set to change. Germany and France will not sit back and just take all this shilly shallying....the Dutch have been looking at, and discussing, the financial ramifications of leaving Europe for some years now...there is a general European malaise that is only being made worse by the Greeks and the thoughts of having Turkey on board. Europe is fractured, it needs the spirit of unification to grow.

The EU needs to address the fact that many of its member states are unhappy and feel anxious. Somebody (Merkel?) needs to be getting us all pulling in the same direction.

Pizzawheel

I think at some stage they have to acknowledge that the two-tier Europe is a real problem they need to address.

Shard

A two tier Europe might be the practical solution.

Pizzawheel

It's the only solution- there's nothing wrong with sleeping under a tree all day. But you can't get the same benefits as working in a factory every day.

So a northern industrial Europe and a southern Mediterranean Europe with no trade barriers but restrictions on financial and social links might just work. And would give the French a delicious dilemma.