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-   -   Climate change and the Alberta Floods (https://britishexpats.com/forum/maple-leaf-98/climate-change-alberta-floods-801204/)

Souvy Jul 16th 2013 11:09 pm

Re: Climate change and the Alberta Floods
 

Originally Posted by Steve_ (Post 10803346)
Of course it matters, the more of it there is there, the more specialized the extraction process can get to generate a higher rate of return, that's basic economics.

Really? There are plenty of very large, high-grade deposits of various minerals around the world that are not being exploited. Why? Because the market doesn't need any more of the stuff. That is basic economics.

Mikeypm Jul 16th 2013 11:38 pm

Re: Climate change and the Alberta Floods
 

Originally Posted by jimf (Post 10803708)
The idea that wind turbines are the answer does seem somewhat delusional.

Wind turbines may not be the solution and even taking out the climate change position the oil even with new techniques and new depoists found will not last forever. Wind turbines are not a viable alternative, but some alternative to oil and fossil fuels needs to be found and invested in.

rwin Jul 17th 2013 1:26 am

Re: Climate change and the Alberta Floods
 
How do you go about calculating the average temperature of the entire planet?

Souvy Jul 17th 2013 1:34 am

Re: Climate change and the Alberta Floods
 

Originally Posted by rwin (Post 10804726)
How do you go about calculating the average temperature of the entire planet?

You take the temperature at lots of different places, add them up and divide by how many readings there were. That is called an average (arithmetic mean, actually, because there are other ways of assessing an average).

rwin Jul 18th 2013 2:36 am

Re: Climate change and the Alberta Floods
 

Originally Posted by Souvy (Post 10804738)
You take the temperature at lots of different places, add them up and divide by how many readings there were. That is called an average (arithmetic mean, actually, because there are other ways of assessing an average).

I know what an average is. It just seems like an impossible task to get an accurate value for the entire planet. Like how many different readings? How many different places? How many times of day? Is the average for a specific time of day? Or averaged over the whole day? The earth is a big place.

The temperature at my house is usually different than downtown or at the airport at any point in time. Which one is used for the average? A city itself can effect the temperature. For gardeners, Calgary is a zone 4 compared to zone 3 for the area around the outside of the city. If you compare the average temperature today to 1940 I'm guessing it would be different in part because the city is 20 times bigger now. Is that sort of thing considered when choosing where to take the temperature? Probably...

But still, it doesn't seem like an easy task.

Souvy Jul 18th 2013 2:50 am

Re: Climate change and the Alberta Floods
 

Originally Posted by rwin (Post 10806717)
I know what an average is. It just seems like an impossible task to get an accurate value for the entire planet. Like how many different readings? How many different places? How many times of day? Is the average for a specific time of day? Or averaged over the whole day? The earth is a big place.

The temperature at my house is usually different than downtown or at the airport at any point in time. Which one is used for the average? A city itself can effect the temperature. For gardeners, Calgary is a zone 4 compared to zone 3 for the area around the outside of the city. If you compare the average temperature today to 1940 I'm guessing it would be different in part because the city is 20 times bigger now. Is that sort of thing considered when choosing where to take the temperature? Probably...

But still, it doesn't seem like an easy task.

Without wishing to be rude, I suspect that you don't know what an average is.

An average is one number that is meant to describe reasonably accurately what is happening with a much larger set of numbers. The measure of average most commonly used is the arithmetic mean. It is very often bollocks because it doesn't cope with outliers. I hate the slavish use of the CAGR with a passion. Modes and medians are often better indicators, as are trimmed means.

rwin Jul 18th 2013 2:59 am

Re: Climate change and the Alberta Floods
 

Originally Posted by Souvy (Post 10806737)
Without wishing to be rude, I suspect that you don't know what an average is.

You suspect wrong.

Greenhill Jul 18th 2013 3:00 am

Re: Climate change and the Alberta Floods
 
  1. For every weather station available, determine an average high temperature for hot days and...
  2. an average cold temperature for cold days, then...
  3. calculate weighted averages of the above values for stations in similar locations (e.g. by county, municipality), then...
  4. calculate weighted averages of the values in step 3 for larger geographical areas (such as countries, territories, provinces, bodies of water), then...
  5. create averages of the values in step 4, so you're left with an average annual high and an average annual low.
  6. Finally, take the two values and shove them up your bum, cos no one is listening.

Souvy Jul 18th 2013 4:13 am

Re: Climate change and the Alberta Floods
 

Originally Posted by rwin (Post 10806748)
You suspect wrong.

It wouldn't be the first time.

Novocastrian Jul 18th 2013 8:53 am

Re: Climate change and the Alberta Floods
 

Originally Posted by rwin (Post 10804726)
How do you go about calculating the average temperature of the entire planet?

For a primer, see here...

http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_...ch1s1-3-2.html

The doc is 6 years old but the methods haven't changed much.

Shard Jul 18th 2013 9:00 am

Re: Climate change and the Alberta Floods
 

Originally Posted by Greenhill (Post 10806749)
  1. For every weather station available, determine an average high temperature for hot days and...
  2. an average cold temperature for cold days, then...
  3. calculate weighted averages of the above values for stations in similar locations (e.g. by county, municipality), then...
  4. calculate weighted averages of the values in step 3 for larger geographical areas (such as countries, territories, provinces, bodies of water), then...
  5. create averages of the values in step 4, so you're left with an average annual high and an average annual low.
  6. Finally, take the two values and shove them up your bum, cos no one is listening.

:rofl:

Steve_ Jul 19th 2013 4:36 am

Re: Climate change and the Alberta Floods
 

Originally Posted by Souvy (Post 10804495)
Really? There are plenty of very large, high-grade deposits of various minerals around the world that are not being exploited. Why? Because the market doesn't need any more of the stuff. That is basic economics.

That's a completely irrelevant point. You can't explain away economic specialization and economies of scale by pointing to a totally different resource and saying no-one bothers with it. "Well, gee, no-one is going to bother pumping up all that oil because no-one bothers with pumping out the Pacific Ocean do they?"

There are 170 billion barrels of oil estimated to be in northern Alberta, that does mean that there is more incentive to figure out how to exploit it than if there was less of it.

Steve_ Jul 19th 2013 4:40 am

Re: Climate change and the Alberta Floods
 

Originally Posted by Novocastrian (Post 10803534)
How good are you at basic survival?

Not as good as my ancestors were most likely, because people in the modern world have adapted via economic specialization. So they're better at one thing but not as good generally, which was my point.

jimf Jul 19th 2013 5:13 am

Re: Climate change and the Alberta Floods
 
Looks like Ontario and Quebec have been getting their gas from the west on the cheap. There's more money in oil.

http://business.financialpost.com/20..._lsa=88d9-fc2e

jimf Jul 19th 2013 5:15 am

Re: Climate change and the Alberta Floods
 

Originally Posted by Novocastrian (Post 10804437)
No. 2010 was warmer, not that comparing single years means anything at all. You have to look at 20-30 year trends.

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/documents/4...3-124ac76680c5

It looks like 1998, 2005 and 2010 are the same essentially. There seems to have been a flattening of the curve over the last 15 years or so - what is that attributed to?


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