MarkRD

Yeah I know! I often get reminded of the fact ...but deep down I think I quite like it.

HADENOUGHPIZZA

Immigrants are attracted by the welfare state and the levels of benefits available. David will have to tackle that either by stopping the freedom of movement ( expensive border checks ) or by limiting what and how soon they can claim ( massive savings ? ) If he wants to reduce the amount that the UK put in then he'll have to use the cash to compensate for EU grants he won't be getting any more . The banking and finance will survive either way but manufacturers will be p*ssed off if they want to sell inside the EU they'll have to conform to the EU requirements anyway and then cope with possible trade barriers going up ...

ononno

Not worrrying too much myself. I was classed as 'an undesirable alien' by the carabinieri in 1963; and given 3 days to leave the country. As you can see I'm still here.

I think we are all inventive enough to find ways of not being thrown out if it came to thst. But of course it never will. It will at worst (or maybe best?) be an arrangement similar to that of Norway or Switzerland.
I can't see a total exit happening or being voted for.
ciao for now,
'o nonnoi

Garbatellamike

Agree with most of that Hadenough, however, we should not forget that trade is a 2-way thing; significanlty the UK imports much more from Europe than it exports to it - losing the UK market share will affect countries that manufacture things; therefore, I suspect they will be interested in coming to "an arrangement". Financially speaking it could be to the UK's benefit if the Eurozone Tobin Tax goes ahead as it could make UK an offshore finacial tax haven in respect of the EU.

There are so many variables and all we will probably get is scare stories from both sides. Flooded by immigrants claiming benefits v sterling collapse/trade barriers.

HADENOUGHPIZZA

[Financially speaking it could be to the UK's benefit if the Eurozone Tobin Tax goes ahead as it could make UK an offshore finacial tax haven in respect of the EU.
.[/QUOTE]

not really , trading in the UK is already subject to stamp duty on equities. ... it will be very interesting to see both sides forced to come up with ideas and responses and it is only fair that the situation be cleared up once and for all .

Garbatellamike

exactly right

Pecora Nera

Done it....

Capo Boi

"undoubtedly collapse - bit strong methinks - might be a downwards adjustment but a collapse is highly unlikely given the inherent flaws in the Eurozone (not that British economy is much better)."

Sterling fell 15-20% on ERM departure. If on a hard UK exit (ie not along Swiss or Norwegian models) I think that you would see a similar fall. Its noticeable that sterling has been gradually selling off over the past nine months albeit having had a good run before that.

I guess the question could be whether Miliband has to offer a similar vote if he wins and Cameron loses.

HADENOUGHPIZZA

currencies don't move on their own but in relation to other currencies so a lot would depend on what happened to the USD and the EUR economies as well as how the '' agreement ' is perceived by the big currency buyers . GBP went up against the EUR during the crisis with Greece but has since started sliding a bit . There will be areas that welcome a weaker pound but the expats living on their GBP pensions will moan and so will tourists.

Garbatellamike

Hmm not sure ERM Exit is a perfect analogy - The Tory nitwit Chancellor at the time thought he could buy his way out of trouble when the market was betting against the pound. In 2017 the markets may well be betting against the Euro too particularly if the ECB keeps kicking the can down the road......

HADENOUGHPIZZA

the referendum won't be for several years yet and markets hate this sort of '' grey area ' who knows what the exchange rate will be by the tme David gets his agreement agreed by all parties .. assuming he stays in power until then !

Garbatellamike

Yes either the Euro, Sterling or both could actually be pretty worthless by then. But I would argue that whilst markets say they hate it they actually love this kind of uncertainty as betting on future exchange rates is how they make their money - if everything was foreever stable Soros and his ilk would be out of business.

HADENOUGHPIZZA

Thats a good point but they tend to prefer uncertainty in the short term , especially if they creat it themselves but this could effect long term investors .. it'll give us soemething to watch in the coming months !

Garbatellamike

you are right easiest way to make a quick megabuck

HADENOUGHPIZZA

We are so nice to each other here , carefull consideration of each others views and very good natured dissent ... if you switch over the the Spanish forum they are WILD and FURIOUS. !! glad I'm here really