Pinco Pallino

So, David Cameron has pledged in 'in or out' (of the EU) referendum if the Conservative Party is returned to power in 2.5 years' time!

What short and long term effects might the UK exiting the EU have on the British expat. community in Italy? How might things change if we become 'extracomunitari?'

Capo Boi

An excellent essay topic. I'll pass on the 10,000 words but the implications for the expat community could be negligible to immense. The real key is to what extent the right to live and work and by implication own property and have access to healthcare, schools etc could change. (Same for foreigners living and working in the UK). In essence free movement of labour and capital could no longer be taken as given on an UK exit. If a 'Swiss' or 'Norwegian' model is negotiated then maybe not too much will change. Anything stronger and the exit doors could open as the whole concept of residency, for example, as it currently stands could see fundamental changes especially with regards to healthcare and property taxes. Don't want to scaremonger but I think that it is certainly true that a vote to leave has the potential to be very damaging to the expat community.

pugliese

marry an Italian

modicasa

watch sterling start to wobble now , and see that out of Europe sterling would be at least parity with the euro.

Garbatellamike

Hmm Modicasa I have to confess I am not sure about that assertion, partcularly in the medium to longer term as the Euro is weakening too and has even more dead ducks that in UK (Ireland, Portugal and Spain to name but 3 and the previously strong German economy, which has limited damage in the Eurozone, is stalling now).

If the fundamentally weaknesses in most of the Eurozone are overcome yes you will be right; however, Draghi and the ECB have just created a bit of breathing space not solved the underlying problems - they have kicked the can down the road......

Of course if you are saying that parity is both Sterling and the Euro are effectively worthless, which is a distinct possibility in the longer term, then I am d'accordo.

Capo Boi

On a UK exit sterling would undoubtedly collapse against the euro. The situation would be very similar to sterling's exit from the ERM. Unofficialy, a currency fall would probably be welcomed in the political arena as this would partially offset the risk of the UK going into deep recession.

MarkRD

..and hopefully get citizenship ...

I brought this subject up a couple of months ago and I think we concluded that applying for Italian citizenship would be such a nightmare, that we'll just have to grin and bear it and get used to being extracomunitari .. permesso di soggiorno and all the rest of it.

Anyway it's obviously all just an economic issue, as usual. Nothing to do with people and how it would affect their lives.

HADENOUGHPIZZA

You don't think that renegotiating the UK's position in the EU would affect people's lives ?

MarkRD

Absolutely! Sorry, what I meant is that they don't think about the people, only about the money .. Cameron hasn't got a single thought about UK citizens actually living in the EC . .only about investors, business etc.

Garbatellamike

No he is not that deep - it is only about getting re-elected methinks

Garbatellamike

undoubtedly collapse - bit strong methinks - might be a downwards adjustment but a collapse is highly unlikely given the inherent flaws in the Eurozone (not that British economy is much better).

HADENOUGHPIZZA

From what I have heard / read a lot of people are worried about the numbers of immigrants arriving and claiming benefits swapping the system . A referendum could be a good idea but they'll have to wait and see what deal can be negotiated , its not as if he can just turn up and write it himself !

Garbatellamike

spot on Hadenough - it will all depend on the deal

MarkRD

That's already an issue and he'll be usuing arguments like that to get his anti-EC message across. It's all populismo .. I come from a very, er, Conservative area and when i get home I hear all those sorts of comments all the time, people moaning about the Polish and so on .. I have to keep reminding them that I live as a 'foreigner' myself.

Garbatellamike

I actually think his message will be anti-EU but pro-EEC/EEA; which is, coincidentally, pretty much what we (the oppressed masses) actually voted to join and not what Maggie Milk Snatcher (Mastricht) and Gormless Gorden (Lisbon) subsequently signed us up for (the latter having lied about a Referendum).

How that affects expats freedom of movement within has to be a real worry. But as Hadenough says all depends on the deal, which will take time. Bound to be lots of scaremongering in the interim from both sides of the debate.

BTW you, like me, are a "DAMNED jOHNNY FOREIGNER" here