My colleague is in the same boat. I suspect it will roll over for him. For us to replace him with a local or even younger person from off shore is virtually impossible. He's got 40 years experience and the knowledge you just can't find.

Many 457 holders are not as skilled I fear.

Abolition and replacement of the 457 visa – Government reforms to employer sponsored skilled migration visas

• capacity for only one onshore visa renewal under the Short-Term stream
• capacity for visa renewal onshore and a permanent residence pathway after three years under the Medium-Term stream
• the permanent residence eligibility period will be extended from two to three years

That sounds different to what's been reported. The 'medium' stream is the 4 year for a limited number of higher skilled - so that still seems to have PR capability.

There are going to be a lot of people in that boat, hanging out for the sponsorship to PR.
Pretty drastic change I must say, biggest visa upheaval since Skill Select came in.

From what i read there is a route to PR but only for the 4 year temp visa but no longer for the 2 year one.

With age exemptions still applicable for some professions

ABC report suggests that existing 457 will still be able to apply for PR at the end of 4 years. Probably treated same as these 'medium' visa types.

457 visa changes: What you need to know

So your work colleague should be OK, provided they keep the job and thus the visa.

Here's the list of jobs being taken off the 457 list

Wow, not the news I wanted to wake up to!

It seems my occupation has at least survived (Systems Analyst).

Is there any word yet on what happens with those who've kicked off the process already / when these changes take effect (if not immediately)?

Assuming I need to follow the new route, would seem the 4-year option is the no-brainer here.

If you have a 457 it appears you can keep it, and with it the route to PR.

If you are in the process, thing might get more complex, but would probably await the actual law being passed before anything significant happened.

If you look at the list Pollyana referenced, it appears Systems Analyst is on the medium list - so still with a route to PR. That's not to say that other aspects might change (age being one I think).

Yes, we're in the process - though not that far into it, I don't think - need to check.

I was looking through the list Pollyana posted - and given it still mentions the 457 visa, my 'assumption' (though acknowledge it's far from being fact!), is that the new rules will come into play at a to-be-announced point in the future. My hope therefore being that the existing 457 will continue to be issued as normal in the meantime.

Though if that's the case, I'd expect a surge in applications, and therefore a delay in it getting processed.

Rather ironically, the average processing time for 457 visa is down from 86 days (75% of applications) to 51 days!

Global visa and citizenship processing times

But, that's good news, as may mean our application is further processed than I first thought.

ok...
maybe this is a non-issue (for myself, anyone currently in the process, and those just about to begin the process)

according this announcement, the changes don't come into effect until 2018.

Edit: Although the new visa is 2018, the culling of occupations looks to be effective immediately (which lines up to the list Polyana posted)

On another forum, we have just had an agent state that the new visa doesn't come in till next year, but, people currently applying for - including those who have already applied will be treated in the new rules and that if they are no longer eligible, they can withdraw their application and request a refund.

Ouch, could be a turbulent few months then. Oh boy!

Edit: Although, I wonder if that relates to the occupation list, rather than the visa itself? That's what seems to be suggested elsewhere, but without a firm source of info.