Road to a Grecian turn?
Jun 23rd 2015, 9:19 am
#511
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Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
Eric you hear similar rhetoric in the UK with the constant refrain from labour that pensions amount to 50 percent of welfare spending. Which technically they do, despite the UK having I believe the lowest State pension in Europe.
But many benefits (such as tax credits) are not actually classsed as benefits. Add them in and thr percentage drops to a third.
But that still leaves the total cost of benefits in the UK somewhere around a third of all Government spending. Add debt interest, which within the next two years will double, and it comes to nearly 50 percent of Government spend.
The simple fact underlying all this is that we in the West have consistently voted for people who will give us loads of "free stuff". But there is no such thing as free stuff. Someone always pays. And in the final analysis that someone is the consumer, be he a pensioner, a child, an employee or an employer.
Untangling this mess is going to take a lot of time. And a lot of hardship.
But many benefits (such as tax credits) are not actually classsed as benefits. Add them in and thr percentage drops to a third.
But that still leaves the total cost of benefits in the UK somewhere around a third of all Government spending. Add debt interest, which within the next two years will double, and it comes to nearly 50 percent of Government spend.
The simple fact underlying all this is that we in the West have consistently voted for people who will give us loads of "free stuff". But there is no such thing as free stuff. Someone always pays. And in the final analysis that someone is the consumer, be he a pensioner, a child, an employee or an employer.
Untangling this mess is going to take a lot of time. And a lot of hardship.
Last edited by bigglesworth; Jun 23rd 2015 at 9:20 am. Reason: Spelling!
Jun 23rd 2015, 9:51 am
#512
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Location: Expat in Yorkshire now
Posts: 11,298
Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
Eric you hear similar rhetoric in the UK with the constant refrain from labour that pensions amount to 50 percent of welfare spending. Which technically they do, despite the UK having I believe the lowest State pension in Europe.
But many benefits (such as tax credits) are not actually classsed as benefits. Add them in and thr percentage drops to a third.
But that still leaves the total cost of benefits in the UK somewhere around a third of all Government spending. Add debt interest, which within the next two years will double, and it comes to nearly 50 percent of Government spend.
The simple fact underlying all this is that we in the West have consistently voted for people who will give us loads of "free stuff". But there is no such thing as free stuff. Someone always pays. And in the final analysis that someone is the consumer, be he a pensioner, a child, an employee or an employer.
Untangling this mess is going to take a lot of time. And a lot of hardship.
But many benefits (such as tax credits) are not actually classsed as benefits. Add them in and thr percentage drops to a third.
But that still leaves the total cost of benefits in the UK somewhere around a third of all Government spending. Add debt interest, which within the next two years will double, and it comes to nearly 50 percent of Government spend.
The simple fact underlying all this is that we in the West have consistently voted for people who will give us loads of "free stuff". But there is no such thing as free stuff. Someone always pays. And in the final analysis that someone is the consumer, be he a pensioner, a child, an employee or an employer.
Untangling this mess is going to take a lot of time. And a lot of hardship.
yep
Jun 23rd 2015, 3:39 pm
#513
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Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
A mainstay of troika programmes is reduction in the size of the public sector. One of the ways to achieve this is through "amicable arrangements", which aren't necessarily all that amicable but at least don't involve employees being slung out on their ear with nothing to live on. Thus, staff close to or at an age where early retirement is a perfectly legitimate possibility are "encouraged" to leave.
It's a method that's used all over the world, not just in Greece, for the benefit to the government of reducing the costs of employment in favour of paying the lower cost of the pensions. And - don't forget - the troika oversaw and approved those measures in Greece during the past 5 years.
It would seem to me grossly unjust and downright perverse, having put these people out to grass, to then cut the pension that was used as an inducement to get rid of them. But that is what has been done and now, apparently, they want more.
It's a method that's used all over the world, not just in Greece, for the benefit to the government of reducing the costs of employment in favour of paying the lower cost of the pensions. And - don't forget - the troika oversaw and approved those measures in Greece during the past 5 years.
It would seem to me grossly unjust and downright perverse, having put these people out to grass, to then cut the pension that was used as an inducement to get rid of them. But that is what has been done and now, apparently, they want more.
In the public sector 8% of employees retired between 26 and 50, another 24% between 51 and 55 and another 44% between 56 and 61.
Make a silk purse out of that sow's ear, Eric
Jun 24th 2015, 12:56 am
#514
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Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
A very long way to go methinks. I don't understand the current euphoria, if Tsipras agrees to the creditors demands he will face a political meltdown in Greece. If Merkel bends much at all she'll have problems too. Lagarde seems to be resigned to a default. I'm still very pessimistic.
Jun 24th 2015, 6:30 am
#515
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Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
In December 2014, the Greek Labour Minister told his parliament that 75% of ALL employees entitled to a pension had applied for early retirement on legal grounds prior to the age of 61.
In the public sector 8% of employees retired between 26 and 50, another 24% between 51 and 55 and another 44% between 56 and 61.
Make a silk purse out of that sow's ear, Eric
In the public sector 8% of employees retired between 26 and 50, another 24% between 51 and 55 and another 44% between 56 and 61.
Make a silk purse out of that sow's ear, Eric
A couple of comments though, if I may.
There were, apparently, a patchwork of arrangements for early retirements on full pension, some of which might seem baffling to us on the surface (though there may have been reasonable grounds underpinning them). Those either have been or will be eliminated.
I can't see how anybody would be able to retire in the sense that we understand it at the age of 26 on a full (or indeed any) pension. My suspicion is that those smallish percentages in the younger age groups may have been covered by provisions in the pension schemes for retirement on the grounds of permanent ill health or something of that nature.
During the crisis, many people who have lost their jobs have applied (unwillingly in many cases) for early access to their pensions, provided that they fulfilled the conditions to do so. This does not necessarily mean that they get the full pension - it may well have been reduced and by more of a proportion than the years they are short of normal retirement age. But once unemployment benefit cover expires after a few months, there is no other form of welfare, so if the regulations allowed them to have early access to their pension at, say, 55, provided they had 35 years' contributions, then that is what they've had to do.
Add to those the figures for public servants induced to apply for early retirement (as per a previous post of mine), not only through invitation but also by the threat of withdrawal of early retirement opportunities in the future. This will have skewed the figures for the age at which people are retiring. Despite this, however, Alexis Tsipras, in a recent interview with Der Tagesspiegel, gave the average exit ages from the Greek labour market as 64.4 years for men and 64.5 for women (compared to German figures of 65.1 for men and 64.2 for women).
One thing that puzzles me is why the obsession with pensions and early retirement when the glaringly obvious problems are chiefly elsewhere - forcing people to work until they drop is not going to do anything to alleviate the 50% unemployment rate among the young (nor indeed the 25% that affects the working population as a whole). And cutting the pensions in payment further will condemn many pensioners and their families to even further hardship which will have a negative effect on the economy.
Jun 24th 2015, 7:17 am
#516
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Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
A very long way to go methinks. I don't understand the current euphoria, if Tsipras agrees to the creditors demands he will face a political meltdown in Greece. If Merkel bends much at all she'll have problems too. Lagarde seems to be resigned to a default. I'm still very pessimistic.
Jun 24th 2015, 7:27 am
#517
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Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
It's not clear from that what period the figures apply to (eg is it percentages of all people currently in receipt of pensions or a snapshot from the previous month's applications or data gathered over the previous 5 years etc), so not really possible to make a great deal from it. oh inconvenient truths that can just be ignored!!!
A couple of comments though, if I may.
There were, apparently, a patchwork of arrangements for early retirements on full pension, some of which might seem baffling to us on the surface (though there may have been reasonable grounds underpinning them). Those either have been or will be eliminated. What reasonable grounds are you thinking of?
I can't see how anybody would be able to retire in the sense that we understand it at the age of 26 on a full (or indeed any) pension. My suspicion is that those smallish percentages in the younger age groups may have been covered by provisions in the pension schemes for retirement on the grounds of permanent ill health or something of that nature. I think there is definitely something in that Eric and tend to agree
During the crisis, many people who have lost their jobs have applied (unwillingly in many cases) for early access to their pensions, provided that they fulfilled the conditions to do so. This does not necessarily mean that they get the full pension - it may well have been reduced and by more of a proportion than the years they are short of normal retirement age. But once unemployment benefit cover expires after a few months, there is no other form of welfare, so if the regulations allowed them to have early access to their pension at, say, 55, provided they had 35 years' contributions, then that is what they've had to do. Not a few months Greek unemployment benefit expires after 2 years.....
Add to those the figures for public servants induced to apply for early retirement (as per a previous post of mine), not only through invitation but also by the threat of withdrawal of early retirement opportunities in the future. This will have skewed the figures for the age at which people are retiring. Despite this, however, Alexis Tsipras, in a recent interview with Der Tagesspiegel, gave the average exit ages from the Greek labour market as 64.4 years for men and 64.5 for women (compared to German figures of 65.1 for men and 64.2 for women). Very difficult to believe this even if it had come from a reputable soutce but Tipsyrash - do me a favour...
One thing that puzzles me is why the obsession with pensions and early retirement when the glaringly obvious problems are chiefly elsewhere Agreed good point - forcing people to work until they drop is not going to do anything to alleviate the 50% unemployment rate among the young (nor indeed the 25% that affects the working population as a whole). And cutting the pensions in payment further will condemn many pensioners and their families to even further hardship which will have a negative effect on the economy. further hardship yes, negative effect on the economy no! In fact the opposite is true
A couple of comments though, if I may.
There were, apparently, a patchwork of arrangements for early retirements on full pension, some of which might seem baffling to us on the surface (though there may have been reasonable grounds underpinning them). Those either have been or will be eliminated. What reasonable grounds are you thinking of?
I can't see how anybody would be able to retire in the sense that we understand it at the age of 26 on a full (or indeed any) pension. My suspicion is that those smallish percentages in the younger age groups may have been covered by provisions in the pension schemes for retirement on the grounds of permanent ill health or something of that nature. I think there is definitely something in that Eric and tend to agree
During the crisis, many people who have lost their jobs have applied (unwillingly in many cases) for early access to their pensions, provided that they fulfilled the conditions to do so. This does not necessarily mean that they get the full pension - it may well have been reduced and by more of a proportion than the years they are short of normal retirement age. But once unemployment benefit cover expires after a few months, there is no other form of welfare, so if the regulations allowed them to have early access to their pension at, say, 55, provided they had 35 years' contributions, then that is what they've had to do. Not a few months Greek unemployment benefit expires after 2 years.....
Add to those the figures for public servants induced to apply for early retirement (as per a previous post of mine), not only through invitation but also by the threat of withdrawal of early retirement opportunities in the future. This will have skewed the figures for the age at which people are retiring. Despite this, however, Alexis Tsipras, in a recent interview with Der Tagesspiegel, gave the average exit ages from the Greek labour market as 64.4 years for men and 64.5 for women (compared to German figures of 65.1 for men and 64.2 for women). Very difficult to believe this even if it had come from a reputable soutce but Tipsyrash - do me a favour...
One thing that puzzles me is why the obsession with pensions and early retirement when the glaringly obvious problems are chiefly elsewhere Agreed good point - forcing people to work until they drop is not going to do anything to alleviate the 50% unemployment rate among the young (nor indeed the 25% that affects the working population as a whole). And cutting the pensions in payment further will condemn many pensioners and their families to even further hardship which will have a negative effect on the economy. further hardship yes, negative effect on the economy no! In fact the opposite is true
The good thing is this week that there has been a distinct lack of posturing and ridiculous press conferences, which makes me think that some serious and more mature negotiations are underway at last. As far as Varoufakeit is concerned - silence is golden....
Jun 24th 2015, 7:35 am
#518
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Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
As to the "baldy on the bike" he should be sent to bed without supper and told to come back when he has grown up a little and done his homework
Jun 24th 2015, 7:55 am
#519
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Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
On the last point less buying power means more companies will go to the Wall.
Austerity works in the beginning but after a certain point it starts a downward spiral. I do not think that austerity is the way forward in Greece, Default, reinvestment and reduction in taxation and improved collection along with whatever international accords are necessary to achieve these goals. A country can ill afford to go further into bankrupty because of the whims of another unless that country is prepared to make good the losses.
Austerity works in the beginning but after a certain point it starts a downward spiral. I do not think that austerity is the way forward in Greece, Default, reinvestment and reduction in taxation and improved collection along with whatever international accords are necessary to achieve these goals. A country can ill afford to go further into bankrupty because of the whims of another unless that country is prepared to make good the losses.
Jun 24th 2015, 8:32 am
#520
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Joined: Mar 2012
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Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
On the last point less buying power means more companies will go to the Wall.
Austerity works in the beginning but after a certain point it starts a downward spiral. I do not think that austerity is the way forward in Greece, Default, reinvestment and reduction in taxation and improved collection along with whatever international accords are necessary to achieve these goals. A country can ill afford to go further into bankrupty because of the whims of another unless that country is prepared to make good the losses.
Austerity works in the beginning but after a certain point it starts a downward spiral. I do not think that austerity is the way forward in Greece, Default, reinvestment and reduction in taxation and improved collection along with whatever international accords are necessary to achieve these goals. A country can ill afford to go further into bankrupty because of the whims of another unless that country is prepared to make good the losses.
1. Default and bring back the Drachma.
2. The EZ keeps giving them free money to create a socialist paradise and writes off the debt so that they can borrow it again.
3. They repeat the austerity mistakes and go onwards with extend and pretend.
I suspect the EU fudgers will go for option 3.
Last edited by Garbatellamike; Jun 24th 2015 at 8:40 am.
Jun 24th 2015, 10:28 am
#521
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Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
It's not clear from that what period the figures apply to (eg is it percentages of all people currently in receipt of pensions or a snapshot from the previous month's applications or data gathered over the previous 5 years etc), so not really possible to make a great deal from it.
Jun 24th 2015, 10:34 am
#522
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Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
Yeah true - the issue is there are 3 options:
1. Default and bring back the Drachma.
2. The EZ keeps giving them free money to create a socialist paradise and writes off the debt so that they can borrow it again.
3. They repeat the austerity mistakes and go onwards with extend and pretend.
I suspect the EU fudgers will go for option 3.
1. Default and bring back the Drachma.
2. The EZ keeps giving them free money to create a socialist paradise and writes off the debt so that they can borrow it again.
3. They repeat the austerity mistakes and go onwards with extend and pretend.
I suspect the EU fudgers will go for option 3.
Nobody aspires to throw good money after bad, so option 2 (as stated) is unpalatable. Although if phrased differently, a palatable illusion could be achieved. And it wouldn't be the first time that smoke and mirrors prevails.
Last edited by amideislas; Jun 24th 2015 at 10:37 am.
Jun 24th 2015, 10:43 am
#523
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Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
One thing that puzzles me is why the obsession with pensions and early retirement when the glaringly obvious problems are chiefly elsewhere - forcing people to work until they drop is not going to do anything to alleviate the 50% unemployment rate among the young (nor indeed the 25% that affects the working population as a whole). And cutting the pensions in payment further will condemn many pensioners and their families to even further hardship which will have a negative effect on the economy.
Given who is financing the bailout such an inequity is morally reprehensible and that is why this is such a sticking point.
PS From information provided by OECD just after Tsipras took power.
Jun 24th 2015, 12:40 pm
#524
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Jun 24th 2015, 12:59 pm
#525
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