Garbatellamike

If it turns out that way for sure Eric but I have my doubts it will turn out that way given the track record of the Government in question....

InVinoVeritas

Varoufakis has stated that there is a split in the Holy Trinity which is holding up a deal to save Greece.

efarsarakis

Any thoughts on how your views have changed since Feb? I'd say less optimism for change, more chance of more of the same...

Garbatellamike

I think you are right it will be onward with "extend and pretend".

I think creating the fake figures showing a first quarter surplus must be very disappointing for those who thought Syriza offered real change rather than just returning to the dishonest accouinting and overspending that got Greece into this mess in the first place.

Still there appears to be a growing appetite amongst the creditors for more extend and pretend so a classic EU fudge looks a bit more likely to me, particularly if Varoufakeit can keep his big trap shut and not provoke a Grexident.

.

Red Eric

I'm still optimistic for change.

A deal will be agreed soon which will at least give some temporary respite to the government without its having had to back down on the most controversial of the demanded "reforms" or to work to an impossible primary surplus target.

They will be able to continue their work on combating corruption and tax evasion plus the really important reforms required in the public sector - I say continue because I believe they have started on this to the extent that the changes are being felt, despite the fact that it goes largely unreported in the foreign press. And that is very important because they were elected on those matters just as much as on those relating to the debt.

And I still believe they can be the catalyst for change on a wider front.

The major change for me since February is that I now have an even more jaundiced view of the EU and more particularly of the EZ representatives. I've always previously been largely pro EU and I still am despite having some serious misgivings on some matters - but I would seriously welcome a change of personnel. Some coming up later this year, I believe.

Garbatellamike

I am, like you, also hopefully that optimistic that a deal (a classic EU fudge) can be reached and GREXIT/GREXCIDENT avoided. Moreover, I completely agree that the lenders are willing to give ground on the primary surplus.

I also hope Syriza can actually start tackling tax evasion and illegality in a concrete way rather than just pontificating on it, this will be a great step forward.

I do not share your belief that they can be the catalyst for change on a wider front particularly given their recent return to fraudulent economics to try and create the illusion of a Q1 primary surplus. It will be extend and pretend not transformational change I am afraid.

I already had that, rightly, jaundiced view of the EU so nothing changes other than your view converging with mine.

InVinoVeritas

I'm still pessimistic and my money is still on a Grexident, ie an exit due to circumstances rather than due to a decision.

There are still the same red lines on both sides of the negotiation and both sides still have to get approval. Syriza looks unlikely to accept the deal which is being bandied around by Tsipras and he would have to rely on opposition votes to get it through. I think the opposition would rather see Syriza voted out of government.

The IMF is playing particularly hard-ball - they would much prefer to be written-out of future participation so they can start dealing with other patients on the ward.

Politically in the EU, Greece cannot be seen to get something which was never offered to Portugal, Ireland and Spain otherwise they will never that genie back in the bottle.

Finally, the implmentation of even the agreed reforms is not advancing at any great speed which does not inspire any confidence that new reforms would fare any better.

Garbatellamike

Yep - This is the key point - they are talking the talk at the ministerial level but not walking the walk in the technical talks to do any details.

I've said it before:

Stop posturing and get on with it!!!

InVinoVeritas

A good article in the FT today (if they let you read it, of course):-

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/61aa0...#axzz3amTgpd9I

Garbatellamike

I see that last night's meeting turned into another "what part of do the homework at the technical level and no you can't just have a load of money free of any conditions and call it a political solution" conversation.

Are Syriza actually going to do anything substantive or are they just going to keep on with this deception, ambiguity, contradiction and posturing and hope that the EZ folds and hands over a load of free money??????

InVinoVeritas

Looks like the beginning of the end:-

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/dbe44...#axzz3asOdPZPe

EMR

The pound has risen to E1.408 .

Garbatellamike

hmm - market hates uncertainty. Syriza should either fold or default.

Red Eric

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has a rather different take on matters in a Telegraph article headed "Defiant Greeks force Europe to negotiating table as time-bomb ticks". An interesting read, in my opinion.

bigglesworth

Interesting time now.
The conjunction of the Greece deadlines, the defenestration of the Polish president, the local elections in Spain. November general elections in much of Europe.
Not forgetting the UK referendum.
The European Commission must be shi**ing the proverbial.