The Virus
 

Strange that nobody has opened a thread on this topic yet... Just for the record, we in Cayman aren't panicking, and there are plenty of bog-rolls available in the supermarkets (as of yesterday!). There's been one report of a visitor who tested positive here, but no confirmation. No flights cancelled yet, but I doubt if that situation will last for long. My son and his three kids have tickets from Norway via Toronto, but he'll be lucky if they make it here without being quarantined in TO.

A couple of cruise ships have been told not to drop anchor here, which is ominous. The good part about that is that the stupid port-proposal seems to be off the agenda for the next few years.

Most people reading this will know that Cayman has only two industries: tourism (both day-trippers and hotel vacationers) and the tax-haven business. If tourism falls away, a lot of people will become unemployed, and many migrant workers will be sent home to Philippines, India, Latin America, etc, and that would have a knock-on effect on local commerce. Our tax-haven business is largely dependent on prosperity in the clients' homelands (mainly the USA), so if that weakens we'll really be in trouble. All except people like me (retired), but even we will be faced with higher everyday prices.

Tough times ahead. BVI and Nassau and other tax-havens in the region will be in the same Coronavirus-infested boat!

Re: The Virus
 

Well, tourism will be dead for a while, certainly here the authorities have been turning away flights and cruise ships so they do mean business.

I received a report from rathbones on economic impacts Of it and the new saudi oil war, which does not read well for the next year or so, lots of concerns about asian supply chains and yes, the more affluent staying at home more. We are exiting the main tourist season so impacts willl be reduced somewhat.

Upside - holidays in exotic places will be for peanuts in a feŵ months...

Re: The Virus
 

This is an interesting article on how the cruise lines bully Caribbean islands, in relation to The Virus. Economically, they've got us by the goolies.
https://theintercept.com/2020/03/14/...k9sz1ZXZWEspxo

Re: The Virus
 

I don’t really buy that, Trinidad and Tobago have closed their ports to all cruise ships, Grenada has refused any boat with more than 2% sick or any passenger from the banned countries.

a statement last year said a cruise ship visit made the same profit for the island as 1 5* hotel room per season so they can all go if they are a burden.

Re: The Virus
 

Extract from our Premier's speech. He's channelling Winston Churchill, I think!:
To close the Owen Roberts International Airport and the Charles Kirkconnell International Airport for international passenger flights for a temporary period of three weeks, beginning Sunday, 22 March 2020 at 11:59 pm until Sunday, 12 April 2020 at 11:59 pm
Many of us oldies expect to be put under house arrest for weeks and weeks - confined to barracks. I don't get out much anyway, but sheesh!

Here's the local paper's report:
https://www.caymancompass.com/2020/0...l-for-3-weeks/

Re: The Virus
 

Countries closing their borders left right and centre, airlines mostly saying they will be technically bankrupt in a few months, politicians flexing muscles and demanding the proles go into home arrest, frankly the nhs statisticians said this stuff is entirely able to delay onset of a pandemic but not to change its outcome.

Frankly INHO its BS except where there is a valid reason to change the shape of the bell curve, and few are trying that for a good reason.

one thing I’m not hearing being talked about , we know that these bugs don’t come in 1 wave but in multiple waves over time/seasons, the more you prevent herd immunity the more waves you get until herd immunity or an inoculation is made freely available . Are they seriously going to do this act several times over the next few years?

Re: The Virus
 

I think this is the way things will be for a long time, grenada. "They", the governments (politicians and senior civil servants) of the world are ratcheting up the controls imposed after the 9/11 hoax. We oldies (I'm 80) will be the first to be put under house-arrest "for our own protection"; even here in Cayman there's talk of that - although they're not actually calling it "house arrest", of course. From this coming Sunday our whole territory will be quarantined, for a trial period of three weeks: no flights in or out, although we're assured that cargo-ships will still be allowed in with the usual suppliers. No cruise-ships, of course. The people most hurt by the new rules are (will be) the low-paid, hourly-paid, transient migrant workers from Jamaica, Philippines, India, etc. I really don't know how they're going to manage.

Re: The Virus
 

las fortunas de la guerra

We live if difficult times.

Re: The Virus
 

Here in another British Overseas Territory,the over 70's are banned from going out and advice is that your family should look after you.
One sister in UK is over 70 so doesn't qualify to go out
Brother and sister in NZ do qualify but best part of 12,000 miles away :ohmy:
However there is a let out, I can go out to visit a doctor or to do food shopping.
So daily visits to the supermarket are OK, Just need to buy minimal food to justify daily visits.
Unfortunately all bars closed so I cannot stop for a refreshing beer going and returning.

Welcome to the world of social media hysterics.

Anyone else remember as kids being sent to play with others who had chicken pox etc to get it over with?

Re: The Virus
 

Yes indeed, Fred! It must be quite tempting for parents to hold virus-parties for their kids the way our parents held measles-parties!

I read in Mark Twain's autobiography how he - 12 years old at the time - deliberately got measles by crawling into bed with his friend who already had it. It was going round the country like wildfire at the time, and he reckoned he'd rather get it over with at the same time as his mate. Very sensible! He wrote that it was the turning point of his life, because his mother was so angry that she pulled him out of school and apprenticed him to a printer's shop. Indirectly, it led him to become a writer, and a very good one too.

I feel sorry for the young folk of today. Not much chance of romance when even a chaste goodnight-kiss is a life-or-death risk! And in my young days I hitched my way around several countries - Australia, England, Scandinavia, New Zealand... Who would dare pick up a hitch-hiker today? More recently, my son met one of his girlfriends on Tinder - a lovely girl; that would never happen today, either. I guess it's dangerous even using pubs as a place to meet. Very sad.

Re: The Virus
 

They wouldnt dare to close watering holes here, the PM already ‘suggested it’ and that was as far as he would go.

we have plenty of open air places with lots of room, and with no tourists or cruise ships its remarkably civil with 6ft exclusion not an issue.

we have a big medical uni worth 20% of gdp, and its closed and the students removed, thats the biggest impact, so plenty of fruit loops, hot pockets and booze in the stores. Latest cocktail, blend 160 proof rum with aloe vera leaves - organic hand gel...

Re: The Virus
 

Cayman had its first case of the corona... an aged passenger was dropped off here with a heart attack, from one of the cruise ships - the Braemar, I think. The heart attack killed him, but the autopsy disclosed that he had the corona as well. Two of the nurses contracted it too, which is sad. All cruise ships have been banned now, and there will be no flights in or out from this Sunday - except for internal flights. No gatherings larger than 50 people, most restaurants and nightclubs closed, hotels being taken over for use as quarantine refuges, and there's talk of us oldies being put under indefinite house-arrest.

Our population of 70,000 includes 30-40,000 Work Permit holders - migrants from Philippines, India, Central America and the Caribbean mainly,plus from Britain, Europe and North America. As you'd expect, the tourism industry is shot to hell, and a lot of the workers in it will have to be sent home - when flights are allowed and if they can get transit visas through the USA.

My son and his children were scheduled to come over from Norway for a couple of weeks in April, but that's been cancelled. Serious times!

Re: The Virus
 

Its a strange period, every day is like a sunday, one can walk the beaches and countryside alone, theres no panic or shortages, and the lack of tourists means its actually pretty easy for restaurants and outdoor bars to do social distancing, so in a way these are civilised times.

However all the sensible predictions are 12 months - maybe longer - so dont believe in any restrictions unless they are sustainable, dont think of planning anything much, and watch as global winners and losers emerge. One thing - i think america is going to be shown profoundly wanting. The leader of singapore described a tripod of support - healthcare, economy/governmwnt and social capital or the will of the people, and without any of these, chaos. America has no social capital and as a country poor healthcare, and i fear the bug will explode there which may hve far reaching consequences for them.

Saudi Arabia is interesting - they use the virus as a weapon of war, immediately turning the screw on iran and the usa via their main weapon - oil prices.

Re: The Virus
 

https://www.caymancompass.com/2020/0..._hsmi=85107150
That's the link to today's newspaper report on the ship that brought the infection to Cayman - including its preceding and subsequent stops. It wasn't the "Braemar", but Carnival's "Costa Luminosa". 2000 passengers came ashore, so thanks a lot, Carnival!

Re: The Virus
 

Wait, a couple of posts again, you were full of nostalgia for the measles parties and thinking parents must be longing for virus-parties. Now you're complaining that 2000 people stepped off a plague ship onto your turf. What's the problem - I thought you couldn't wait to get it over with, like Mark Twain.

You guys should come over to mine after all this dies down. I plan to have a great big celebratory polio-party - come along and build up some herd immunity! Bring your own iron lung, mind....

Re: The Virus
 

Fair enough, Fairy, but 1) the situation is changing just about every day, and 2) we have to distinguish between the actual danger to life (not all that great, even now) and the hysterical panic (out of control). I myself assess the actual danger in "BD" terms. BD stands for the "Black Death" of 700 years ago, which itself warrants a BD-10 on my scale. The Corona Virus warrants about a BD-2, at the moment. That may rise to a BD-4, I would say, on present indication, but no higher. The panic I would rank as BD-9, which is absurd.

I have not trademarked my BD scale, so anybody posting on this thread is free to tell the rest of us his or her rank for the actual of ten days or so ago and the actual now, and the panic.

Re: The Virus
 

I've been watching the Trumpet on the news recently and he is the biggest single danger to that country. He is without a doubt, unhinged. From his 'Chinese Virus' remarks, to his attack on a journalist asking a pertinent question and now Dr Fauci has abdandoned him after his ludicrous '15 days and we'll be fine and open for business again' type address. But as Obi Wan Kenobi said "Who is more foolish? The fool or the fool who follows him?". Why doesn't he get challenged on these things?

Re: The Virus
 

I concur. I had a woman 'social distance' herself from me on SMB yesterday walking home from work. The beach was deserted! Calm doon!!!!

Re: The Virus
 

I've been sent photos of long lines outside Kirk's and Priced Right. L-o-n-n-g-g lines! Seven till seven curfew now, have you heard?

Re: The Virus
 

I'm sure the panic is ruining a lot of people's love-lives! "Getting lucky" probably means NOT taking her home to bed, these days...

Re: The Virus
 

How about this: Nany countries are now considering draconian restrictions -

Proportionality of response is how politicians and their actions in this will be judged. Right now they can get away with a lot, but had better be aware of the future backlash against them that may be generated if they get it wrong... Consider this truth - the only benefit of draconian measures is to lower the height of the inevitable (eventually) curve to a level that does not overwhelm a countries facilities. If they do draconian things and still fail at that, the fallout for them will not be pleasant.

Re: The Virus
 

Let's face it: we none of us know quite how long this Virus will be pestering us, or quite how dangerous it is. My post #16above gave my opinion on the thing, and this link here helps to put the present situation in perspective. (Assuming its statistics are honest, of course!)
https://www.medindia.net/patients/ca...eath-clock.asp

Re: The Virus
 

Try this link for an interactive- believeable set of numbers

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51235105

Re: The Virus
 

Well, not all that believable! Those figures are reported cases, not reported deaths.

Re: The Virus
 

Not reported cases, confirmed cases, deaths are there too, actually the graph that shows speed of growth is scarier - shows how fast the US is accelerating its cases

Re: The Virus
 

True, but to be confirmed or denied, cases have to be reported - and I suspect that there many thousands in every major country that have not been reported and therefore not confirmed/denied. If that's so, the ration of deaths to "cases" would be much lower - in other words, the survival rate would be much higher. I speak defensively, I suppose, being 80 and in the "vulnerable" bracket. These may be famous last words, but I think I'll survive it if it does catch me. I've been healthy all my life except for a couple of one-offs 45 years ago; and I haven't had the flu since my teenage years; that ought to be enough to bust the statistics! What do you reckon?

Re: The Virus
 

It’s about co-morbidity- if you aren’t suffering from other weakening heart lung or blood issues don’t fear it. Tons of people die if flu every winter but the flu was assisted in most cases by approaching death from other causes.

NHS stat -,you need most services in the last 2 years of life, or said differently, as you slowly fade out...

Re: The Virus
 

There’s a lag but work on 1% of cases will die eventually-if you know 1000 cases are proved and 30 have actually died, where are the ones dying right now and where are the unreported?

Re: The Virus
 

This. Every day of the week.

Re: The Virus
 

Take a look at swedens response, they have a slight set of restrictions, but in no way say they can stop or impact it much, the only endgame in town - herd immunity will occur, people will die, life will go on for the vast majority without big upheavals and without ruining their personal or national economy.

Re: The Virus
 

So now we are on 24/7 curfew, shops are only allowed to open 8-12 [maximises human to human contact and general FUD], only food stores and chemists are open [no gas stations or taxis allowed [most have to use busses or walk] but exercising outdoors and alcohol sales stopped.

Re: The Virus
 

Busses are out of business now, in Cayman, and taxis. Fosters supermarkets are bussing five employees at a time into work and back every day - five, because that allows for some social-distancing inside the van! Our government won't allow supermarkets to open on Sundays, for religious reasons. Tchah! It seems they would rather squeeze people into the shops rather than break the Christian sabbath. I've argued to allow them to be open 24/7, but no go; that would ease the congestion, by allowing us to shop in the middle of the night if we wanted. Employees would love the extra hours, as you'd imagine.

Employers in general are caught in a bind, in regard to migrant workers whose Work Permits are up. They can't be sent off the Island because no planes are flying, and nobody will take foreigners. So the Filipinos, Indians, Latin Americans and even Jamaicans, are stuck here. So far, their employers are continuing to pay them, but I can't see that lasting for long.

I went shopping this morning at Fosters Airport - my first venture outside my house for nine days. A very pleasant experience, as it happened. Everybody very cheerful and courteous. As an "elderly", I was ushered to the head of the line, and even the people I was put ahead of didn't begrudge me the privilege. A very "Battle of Britain" attitude, which was lovely to see.

Re: The Virus
 

Jamesy, I don't think this is the place for a political argument, so I'll let your little grumble about Trump pass without comment. Except to say that I see nothing racist or wrong about calling the disease "Chinese Virus". Many people still refer to the 1918 influenza as "the Spanish flu", without it being considered as reflecting poorly on the people of Spain. We talk about "the mafia" without regarding it as bad-mouthing Italy, or even Sicily. "Russian roulette" doesn't insult the people of Russia. As for "corona" virus - well, corona is a Spanish word, isn't it? So... "Chinese virus" or "Spanish-word-for-crown virus"... Not much in it, really, is there? Smile.

Re: The Virus
 

I agree. Too many threads on BE are taken over by political posts. Anyone who wishes to discuss politics please open a new thread.

Thank you

Re: The Virus
 

Lets talk about brexit NOOOOOO!

though there are some who hark back to the good old days of those arguments, replaced by covid trumpism

Re: The Virus
 

All you chaps out that way - I simply wish you all the best that you stay safe and healthy during these times.
It's not what we would have wanted for any of our lives at the moment is it but we can take heart and smile at the little things.

I also haven't left our property in a good three weeks now. Husband has no work so is the designated grocery shopper if there is a need.

Lovely to read people being kind Gordon. That's what we need. Care and kindness all round.

and sometimes a little tipple.

Re: The Virus
 

This is news from New Zealand, but it will be welcome everywhere, I expect... I've just read that the NZ Prime Minister has formally assured the young children of her country that the Easter Bunny and the Tooth Fairy are both considered "essential services" during the lockdown. A nice gesture, eh?

Re: The Virus
 

Well thats nice, something to eat at least.

Here the government have decided to extend its 24/7 curfew for another 2 weeks. They had what they call a shopping day yesterday, allowing the food stores to open for 8 hours, people queued for 4-5 hours to panic buy what they could, many could not get into a store, to then be told at 6 that the next 'shopping day' would be for 4 hours next Saturday. [Adventists up in arms of course...]

Its ok for those agile folks who stocked up before this, but i do believe the poor are now suffering, and i do feel that some time, deaths will result specifically from these decisions, from the poorest oldest and sickest in the community, meanwhile deaths from the bug, zero...

Their logic for the lockdown is that they think we are in a critical phase of eliminating spread so nobody must be near anybody. What is your opinion on this logic given the overall situation?

Re: The Virus
 

It's all over-hyped to billy-oh! As far as I'm able to gather, the death-rate is quite a bit below the death-rate of the ordinary flu. The newspapers give full publicity to those who get really sick from it, but much of that is click-bait designed to scare us all. As Trump has said, we don't want the cure to be worse than the disease - and it will be worse if it accelerates the world's descent into an economic depression.

Re: The Virus
 

1929 again "Buddy, can you spare a dime ?"