House price correction -25%
#31
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Personally I think a reasonable long term ratio is about 3:1, however Canadians (stupidly imo) get mortgages based on affordability rather than income multiples. So you also need to look at repayments vs earnings - although that's still nuts. I *think* it's over 50%, but I'm not sure of the exact number and I can't be arsed to google it.
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#32
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I think there will be correction nationally but also pockets where there's only a cooling - some places may continue to rise slowly due to housing shortages. 25% correction is way too much though - lot of people would be at risk if that happened. People are vulnerable because of 150+% personal debt levels as opposed to the same sub-prime culture in the US. There won't be mass foreclosing for that reason, though interest rates are set to start rising from next year so that could affect a few people at the margins.
No crash IMO, just a cyclical reality check as JonBoy says.
No crash IMO, just a cyclical reality check as JonBoy says.
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Just because you can afford it now doesnt mean you can afford it when interest rates increase.. and they will sooner or later.
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#36
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Even if bondzilla wakes up it won't hit Canada first - where are the chinese going to put their money otherwise? EUR? USD?
Also, I believe the bank of Canada has printing press.
Last edited by Alan2005; Jul 26th 2012 at 12:36 pm. Reason: anyway anyhow...
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#37
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I think that the house prices will correct themselves, in perhaps the larger cities like Vancouver or Toronto.
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A small article in the Metro today that suggest house prices in Canada have risen faster that the economy should have allowed and that it predicts a 25% decrease to bring things in line.
What do people think of this and is there any evidence to support it.
All predictions in my area (Halifax ---stop it) seems to suggest the opposite due to the Irving ship contract.
We have some decisions to make, mainly we will be in a position to pay off the mortgage in February. With an exchange rate that has fallen significantly in the last few years and now this news, it might be time to pause for thought.
Your comments would be appreciated.
What do people think of this and is there any evidence to support it.
All predictions in my area (Halifax ---stop it) seems to suggest the opposite due to the Irving ship contract.
We have some decisions to make, mainly we will be in a position to pay off the mortgage in February. With an exchange rate that has fallen significantly in the last few years and now this news, it might be time to pause for thought.
Your comments would be appreciated.
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#41
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3:1 may be a reality for some areas of Canada, but i doubt that will ever happen in Vancouver. 20 years ago before the present run up i bet it wasn't under 5:1 - likely higher.
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#42
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#44
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Areas of Vancouver's core are largely owned by absentee owners....coal harbour's towers at night are mostly unlit for instance. Real souls are forced out so foreginers can hold on to propery that they infrequently or seldom stay in.
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#45
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I love BC, but there's no way I'd pay the prices YOU are paying to live there.
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