Amazulu

Maybe now that's the case but at the time when they signed up for the Euro, they were doing just fine with the DM.

Euro is weak at the moment but that was not always the case.

Evelin

I don't thin k the competitiveness of Germany will decline if they return to the D-Mark.

For one, there are more than enough Chinese/Indian and Russian consumers who like to own a German consumer product and who are able to pay any price. But Germany produces numerous high-tech machinery/parts which are not easily copied. The workforce is highly skilled and stays on with an employer for many years if not decades.

However, i believe the Euro was a mistake. It took away the option of monitery policy for a country. Eg, Greece and Germany have very little in common not only in economic terms.

Without the Euro now, it would be a catastrophy in the making.

If the UK leaves the EU, it would become isolated.

GarryP

Practically it's no longer a case of if the euro collapses; but when and how.

With the unwillingness of germany to provide an unlimited pot of gold to bail out the PIIGS the yield demanded on their new bonds has to keep going up as the extra debt piles upon debt. Tie in the position of the french banks and there is the probability that they are going down too.

It's only really a question of when and how the Titanic sinks. I think they won't be able to get ink on a treaty before its dead. On the positive side, Sarkozy is unlikely to survive the fallout in the April/May elections, on the negative the far right might do well as french nationalism returns - fed by Sarkozy's own lies.

My guess is the northern countries will break off the PIIGS, who will be free to float their true currencies and inflate away their debt. Something like the original minimum convergence standards, but as a standard for maintaining membership. The euro will likely survive as a currency for the more integrated northern countries, and as an EU-wide second 'trading' currency. That's about the best they can hope for.

Given GFC II is on the cards anyway, the euro breakup will come amid recession/depression. Reasonable likelihood that global tariff-free trade will get scaled back at the same time as imbalances become obviously unsustainable. Bilateral trade agreements on the basis of mutual benefit are more likely - and for that you have to have something worthwhile to offer.

Oh, and the rush to austerity by the economist 'technocrats' will yield violence. Hopefully just the local 'stringing up' of some bankers, but the legacy of the EU might end up being another war in Europe.

In Exile

^ woohoo. cheap houses and holidays.

GarryP

Although at present, whenever things look black the Oz dollar falls against the pound - thanks to the dependence of the current Australian position on China and exports.

Mind fast forward a short while and you might be able to carpetbag yourself a nice Greek holiday property - once they are out of the euro and devalued significantly.

Amazulu

and servants/serfs

In Exile

property? surely you mean island