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The world of automation

The world of automation

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Old Jun 12th 2018, 10:01 am
  #1306  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Shard View Post
Tesla is not a product? <mystified>
No

Originally Posted by Shard View Post
Steve Jobs: more than a marketer, he built and re-built Apple, which is quite a feat (especially from where it was in the early 90's). He may well have adapted and improved technologies other companies developed, but that's business.
Yes. I have never owned any Apple kit .... ever. I don't like it. However I admire what he did. He did take ideas of others and brought them to market and sold a shit load of them, which is what others failed to do.
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Old Jun 12th 2018, 10:10 am
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by GarryP View Post
If there's one thing Musk isn't, it's a great marketeer. Have you ever seen him present? Whereas Jobs was perennially about selling someone else's advances as something he had done (eg he was a bullshit artist), and being a frankly nasty piece of work - Musk is an engineer at heart and has *actually* made real advances. The issue with his tweets is you can never be sure if he's joking, or if he's really going to do it? Most of the time it's the later.

But perhaps one of his best policies, and one that you obviously hate, he doesn't see the accrual of zeros in a bank account to be a worthwhile goal. Money is only of use if it's doing something positive, and that's what he's been doing. When you compare Tesla to the other car companies what you see is something with much more upside, the same market cap, off smaller sales.
What you also see are issues with manufacture of the 3 being overcome, with the Tesla Semi, Model Y and Roadster MkII coming along inside a few year.

The only question marks I'd have are can they cut the price of those batteries (a problem all car companies will have) and can they get the automation working by 2020 (again, the same problem as the other car companies). If both of those can get addressed, they will probably end up taking over one of the other major car companies (patents will be key).
See. You are selling futures. That's fine but it's a punt. They are losing money. Not making money. There's a big problem there.
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Old Jun 12th 2018, 10:12 am
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Beoz View Post
No

Yes. I have never owned any Apple kit .... ever. I don't like it. However I admire what he did. He did take ideas of others and brought them to market and sold a shit load of them, which is what others failed to do.
There are Teslas driving on the roads? They are not products? What are you on about?
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Old Jun 12th 2018, 10:16 am
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Beoz View Post
See. You are selling futures. That's fine but it's a punt. They are losing money. Not making money. There's a big problem there.
Gary's posting makes the point that Tesla is ploughing its operating income into R&D, and that the other two are not (which is a bit hard to believe). The implication being that if Tesla reduced R&D to zero it would be a profitable concern. It's not doing that as it sees the future as electric.
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Old Jun 12th 2018, 10:54 am
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Shard View Post
Gary's posting makes the point that Tesla is ploughing its operating income into R&D, and that the other two are not (which is a bit hard to believe). The implication being that if Tesla reduced R&D to zero it would be a profitable concern. It's not doing that as it sees the future as electric.
Actually part of the point is that's from 2014, and the other car companies have had to put more into R&D because of Tesla and how the car industry is getting reshaped. Basically it's moving from manual/petrol to autonomous/EV - which will totally change everything. Look forward a decade from now and there are known names from today that will have gone to the wall.

And when you look at the stats, none of the companies are doing great during this transition time, since they need to re-engineer the companies to match the future (and some are furiously trying to ignore that future). Taking that into consideration, Tesla's not doing badly at present. However we'll really only know who has the hand of aces 5-7 years hence.

Or in short, the share price and profits of today are NOT the important numbers - it's how well prepared you are for the shift, and how your R&D is doing. That's why the Tesla market cap is so high relative to the bigger, but slower, car companies.
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Old Jun 12th 2018, 1:31 pm
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Shard View Post
Gary's posting makes the point that Tesla is ploughing its operating income into R&D, and that the other two are not (which is a bit hard to believe). The implication being that if Tesla reduced R&D to zero it would be a profitable concern. It's not doing that as it sees the future as electric.
I agree. Hard to believe.

"Selling"? Well you need that. No doubt. What are they selling that makes that number so high? Selling to investors would be a massive part.

Last edited by Beoz; Jun 12th 2018 at 1:34 pm.
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Old Jun 12th 2018, 1:37 pm
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Shard View Post
There are Teslas driving on the roads? They are not products? What are you on about?
Hardly in the league of an iPhone. Maybe one day he will get there and Garry's bet, while taking a long long time, might get there.
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Old Jun 12th 2018, 2:38 pm
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Beoz View Post
Hardly in the league of an iPhone. Maybe one day he will get there and Garry's bet, while taking a long long time, might get there.
I don't think any comparison with iPhones are valid. At the time, "in your pocket touchscreen" (+ iTunes and a few other whistles) was disruptive technology. The automobile market is far more staid, and even with the highest efficiency new cars, there will still be a huge fleet of legacy vehicles to retire. Public legislation will drive take up rates as much as anything else (crippling tax on fossil fuel vehicles, for example). I haven't been following Tesla closely, but from I understand the issues they have are to do with their automation process (not fully reliable) and the re-charging infrastructure out side or metropolitan zones. Neither of which are insurmountable, and give Elon's success with Space X, there doesn't seem to be much reason for pessimism.
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Old Jun 12th 2018, 9:29 pm
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Shard View Post
I don't think any comparison with iPhones are valid. At the time, "in your pocket touchscreen" (+ iTunes and a few other whistles) was disruptive technology. The automobile market is far more staid, and even with the highest efficiency new cars, there will still be a huge fleet of legacy vehicles to retire. Public legislation will drive take up rates as much as anything else (crippling tax on fossil fuel vehicles, for example). I haven't been following Tesla closely, but from I understand the issues they have are to do with their automation process (not fully reliable) and the re-charging infrastructure out side or metropolitan zones. Neither of which are insurmountable, and give Elon's success with Space X, there doesn't seem to be much reason for pessimism.
One, two right there. Governments crippling tax on fossil fuels? Already here. Still very little take up. And if there was a take up, other car companies already playing in that space so there's lots of competition. Poor old Tesla.
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Old Jul 3rd 2018, 8:57 am
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Default Re: The world of automation

See. Automation creates jobs.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/pilot-shortage-forces-qantas-to-put-jumbo-jets-on-domestic-services-20180703-p4zp63.html
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Old Jul 3rd 2018, 9:08 am
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Beoz View Post
That's nothing to do with automation. That's the reality that middle east and SE asia airlines have been snapping up pilots to expand their operations. It takes a *long* time to train someone up such that they can sit in the captain's seat, and even longer to get them to the standard they can train others. And the brutal reality is that Qantas and australian airlines haven't been either training up enough new people, or in more recent years, being prepared to pay the going rate those pilots can get overseas so they can keep them.

So they leave, and Qantas are up sh*t creek without a paddle in what is a global marketplace.

They need to pay more, but Joyce doesn't get that, so he keeps losing them.

Here's a story from 2015 - it's not a new issue.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/comp...11-gjk2xl.html
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Old Jul 3rd 2018, 9:56 am
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by GarryP View Post
That's nothing to do with automation. That's the reality that middle east and SE asia airlines have been snapping up pilots to expand their operations. It takes a *long* time to train someone up such that they can sit in the captain's seat, and even longer to get them to the standard they can train others. And the brutal reality is that Qantas and australian airlines haven't been either training up enough new people, or in more recent years, being prepared to pay the going rate those pilots can get overseas so they can keep them.

So they leave, and Qantas are up sh*t creek without a paddle in what is a global marketplace.

They need to pay more, but Joyce doesn't get that, so he keeps losing them.

Here's a story from 2015 - it's not a new issue.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/comp...11-gjk2xl.html
No. Flying automates the process of getting people from point A to point B. Look at all the jobs created around air travel.

As you point out the surge in requirement in Asia due to the automation of this mode of travel has meant demand, higher salaries and the like.

It wasn't that long ago an engineer was required in the cockpit and didn't they cry foul when his job was made redundant.

See ..... automation creates jobs.
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Old Jul 4th 2018, 12:48 am
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Default Re: The world of automation

Charge your Electric vehicle in almost as much time as it takes to fill with petrol..... Circa 5 minutes for a 150 Kms of range.

These are now being rolled out in Germany, Plus they are Aussie built.

https://reneweconomy.com.au/australi...utobahn-38364/

It's about time there was a decent breakthrough in this field.
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Old Jul 10th 2018, 9:57 pm
  #1319  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Beoz View Post
No. Flying automates the process of getting people from point A to point B. Look at all the jobs created around air travel.

As you point out the surge in requirement in Asia due to the automation of this mode of travel has meant demand, higher salaries and the like.

It wasn't that long ago an engineer was required in the cockpit and didn't they cry foul when his job was made redundant.

See ..... automation creates jobs.
This is cherry picking. Automation and technology does of course create some jobs (as do developing economies) the concern about automation is that THIS TIME, in aggregate, it will remove more jobs than it replaces. Lose 10 million jobs, create 1 million new jobs, not really an ideal outcome.
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Old Jul 10th 2018, 10:22 pm
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Default Re: The world of automation

Automation may create some jobs, but it seems to create mostly skilled jobs which face it we don't all have the ability to learn specialized skills nor are all of us good in school and I am not so sure automation will create enough jobs to sustain society.
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