The world of automation
Jun 9th 2018, 1:00 am
#1276
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Feb 2005
Posts: 15,526
Re: The world of automation
BTW between 25pct to 33pct of people any any given day aren't home, Which equates to almost as much doorstep waiting as delivering. In other words 50pct of your labour costs are dead waiting for doors to be answered.
Jun 9th 2018, 1:46 am
#1277
snɐןɔ ʎʇıuɐs
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 6,558
Re: The world of automation
And one of their key target markets are delivery vehicles, or rather a vehicle that can do both robotaxi and delivery.
https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/f...ng-cars-miami/
So, we are talking about a rollout at scale, in 3 years time.
Plus the progress on drones hasn't stopped, and they are at the regulatory approval stage :
https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/loca...484789181.html
and Amazon aren't the only ones. Apple, Intel, Microsoft and Uber have been given pilot programme approvals:
https://www.theguardian.com/technolo...testing-amazon
Upshot is it's coming at roughly the pace promised, and that within 5 years it will be a thing. If you are retiring inside that timescale, fine, but otherwise ...
Jun 9th 2018, 2:01 am
#1278
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Feb 2005
Posts: 15,526
Re: The world of automation
Google are already running vehicles around, fully autonomous. Ford are also already testing services, rolling out their first autonomous vehicle in 2019/2020, with a service AT SCALE in 2021.
And one of their key target markets are delivery vehicles, or rather a vehicle that can do both robotaxi and delivery.
https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/f...ng-cars-miami/
So, we are talking about a rollout at scale, in 3 years time.
Plus the progress on drones hasn't stopped, and they are at the regulatory approval stage :
https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/loca...484789181.html
and Amazon aren't the only ones. Apple, Intel, Microsoft and Uber have been given pilot programme approvals:
https://www.theguardian.com/technolo...testing-amazon
Upshot is it's coming at roughly the pace promised, and that within 5 years it will be a thing. If you are retiring inside that timescale, fine, but otherwise ...
And one of their key target markets are delivery vehicles, or rather a vehicle that can do both robotaxi and delivery.
https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/f...ng-cars-miami/
So, we are talking about a rollout at scale, in 3 years time.
Plus the progress on drones hasn't stopped, and they are at the regulatory approval stage :
https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/loca...484789181.html
and Amazon aren't the only ones. Apple, Intel, Microsoft and Uber have been given pilot programme approvals:
https://www.theguardian.com/technolo...testing-amazon
Upshot is it's coming at roughly the pace promised, and that within 5 years it will be a thing. If you are retiring inside that timescale, fine, but otherwise ...
This kind of thing. Quite a few different types coming onto the market, but they all have different software interfaces.
receva
It seems I cant get this issue through to people......
It's the one thing that is blocking all of this automation.
Jun 9th 2018, 2:20 am
#1279
snɐןɔ ʎʇıuɐs
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 6,558
Re: The world of automation
and one is reception, it's the reception where the major issue is......People need automated receiving systems,
Thanks to apps, etc. you can know when they are home, and you can attempt delivery then, in the evening if necessary.
People aren't going to pay hundreds (FFS the link you gave is $840) to fit in with what old postal services are comfortable with - they are going to expect it to be the other way around. Particularly for the airborne solutions, that's where the money is, delivery to your hands, JIT.
Here's a fictional view of where they are headed, from a short story by Vernor Vinge
Juan hesitated. That's strange.
What?
I've got mail. He set a pointer in the sky for the others to see: a ballistic FedEx package with a Cambridge return address. It was coming straight down, and from very high up. At about a thousand feet, the mailer slowed dramatically, and a sexy voice spoke in Juan's ear. Do you accept delivery, Mr. Orozco?
Yes, yes. He indicated a spot on the ground nearby.
All this time, William had been staring into the sky. Now he gave a little start and Juan guessed the guy had finally seen Juan's pointer. A second after that, the package was visible to the naked eye: a dark speck showing an occasional bluish flare, falling silently toward them.It slowed again at ten feet, and they had a glimpse of the cause of the light: dozens of tiny landing jets around the edge of the package. Animal rights campaigners claimed the micro-turbines were painfully loud to some kinds of bats, but to humans and even dogs and cats, the whole operation was silent…. until the very last moment: Just a foot off the ground, there was a burst of wind and a scattering of pine needles. Sign here, Mr. Orozco, said the voice.
Juan did so and started toward the mailer. William was already there, kneeling awkwardly. The Goofus spazzed at just the wrong instant and lurched forward, putting his knee through the mailer carton. Miri rushed over to him. William! Are you okay?
William rolled back on his rear and sat there, massaging his knee. Yes, I'm fine, Miriam. Damn. He glanced at Juan. I'm really sorry, kid. For once, he didn't sound sarcastic.
Juan kept his mouth shut. He squatted down by the box: it was a standard twenty-ounce mailer, now with a big bend in the middle. The lid was jammed, but the material was scarcely stronger than cardboard, and he had no trouble prying it open. Inside … he pulled out a clear bag, held it up for the others to see.
What?
I've got mail. He set a pointer in the sky for the others to see: a ballistic FedEx package with a Cambridge return address. It was coming straight down, and from very high up. At about a thousand feet, the mailer slowed dramatically, and a sexy voice spoke in Juan's ear. Do you accept delivery, Mr. Orozco?
Yes, yes. He indicated a spot on the ground nearby.
All this time, William had been staring into the sky. Now he gave a little start and Juan guessed the guy had finally seen Juan's pointer. A second after that, the package was visible to the naked eye: a dark speck showing an occasional bluish flare, falling silently toward them.It slowed again at ten feet, and they had a glimpse of the cause of the light: dozens of tiny landing jets around the edge of the package. Animal rights campaigners claimed the micro-turbines were painfully loud to some kinds of bats, but to humans and even dogs and cats, the whole operation was silent…. until the very last moment: Just a foot off the ground, there was a burst of wind and a scattering of pine needles. Sign here, Mr. Orozco, said the voice.
Juan did so and started toward the mailer. William was already there, kneeling awkwardly. The Goofus spazzed at just the wrong instant and lurched forward, putting his knee through the mailer carton. Miri rushed over to him. William! Are you okay?
William rolled back on his rear and sat there, massaging his knee. Yes, I'm fine, Miriam. Damn. He glanced at Juan. I'm really sorry, kid. For once, he didn't sound sarcastic.
Juan kept his mouth shut. He squatted down by the box: it was a standard twenty-ounce mailer, now with a big bend in the middle. The lid was jammed, but the material was scarcely stronger than cardboard, and he had no trouble prying it open. Inside … he pulled out a clear bag, held it up for the others to see.
Jun 9th 2018, 2:55 am
#1280
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Feb 2005
Posts: 15,526
Re: The world of automation
I think the thing that you are missing is there is no need, if you deliver WHEN THEY ARE HOME.
Thanks to apps, etc. you can know when they are home, and you can attempt delivery then, in the evening if necessary.
People aren't going to pay hundreds (FFS the link you gave is $840) to fit in with what old postal services are comfortable with - they are going to expect it to be the other way around. Particularly for the airborne solutions, that's where the money is, delivery to your hands, JIT.
Here's a fictional view of where they are headed, from a short story by Vernor Vinge
Fast Times at Fairmont High
Thanks to apps, etc. you can know when they are home, and you can attempt delivery then, in the evening if necessary.
People aren't going to pay hundreds (FFS the link you gave is $840) to fit in with what old postal services are comfortable with - they are going to expect it to be the other way around. Particularly for the airborne solutions, that's where the money is, delivery to your hands, JIT.
Here's a fictional view of where they are headed, from a short story by Vernor Vinge
Fast Times at Fairmont High
I do appreciate you can do this with apps..... But for every 5 people you get to take up this app, there will be one person that takes as long to deliver to as the other 5 combined. That is the point everyone is missing. The thing is currently that time is blowing out not reducing. Hence the need for a face to face solution in the interim.
Jun 9th 2018, 4:24 am
#1281
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 14,040
Re: The world of automation
Also worth noting that if you are doing autonomous vehicle deliveries, you can make them in the evening when people are actually around. Indeed, you can have a app on the phone, accessing the location, so you KNOW they are home before you turn up, coupled with alerts such that they are waiting at the door for when it appears.
Postal services will really need to up their game.
Postal services will really need to up their game.
Ozzie why don't Oz Post deliver in the evenings when traffic is less and people are in?
Jun 9th 2018, 4:31 am
#1282
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 14,040
Re: The world of automation
Your example of Beoz Plc illustrates my point nicely.
Elsewhere, plenty of routine office jobs in accounting, finance, insurance, law, most administration, actually. Anything which involves reading a document and processing it in line with company guidelines or legal frameworks. I mean, there are still people who do data entry FFS. The point is the vast majority of jobs that can be automated have not yet been automated, but that doesn't mean they won't be in the future.
Elsewhere, plenty of routine office jobs in accounting, finance, insurance, law, most administration, actually. Anything which involves reading a document and processing it in line with company guidelines or legal frameworks. I mean, there are still people who do data entry FFS. The point is the vast majority of jobs that can be automated have not yet been automated, but that doesn't mean they won't be in the future.
No effect on mass unemployment.
Jun 9th 2018, 5:24 am
#1283
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Feb 2005
Posts: 15,526
Re: The world of automation
It also needs to be noted, that there are a fair proportion of people out there, say around 5pct that wont open the door to what they perceive to be strangers..... Sounds odd I know but it really happens. A significant enough proportion to have some effect compounded by the 3 x knock and call out imposed by Aus Post on their delivery staff last year. Every postie is now reporting back with at least 2 hours of dead time door waiting a day. They are also working in excess of on average 10 hour days in our region.. 3.5 inside 6.5 outside......even the part timers!
Jun 9th 2018, 5:27 am
#1284
snɐןɔ ʎʇıuɐs
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 6,558
Re: The world of automation
I agree with the delivering when you know people are at home....... Try getting people to comply with that.
You can have the app alert the person "trying to deliver this evening, will you be in?" If they say yes you load it onto the van, and then the route is determined by times that people say they will be available, etc. - a dynamically formed route.
As the van gets closer to the house the app checks that the person is still at home, and if so it alerts them as the van turns into their road so they are ready to receive to pick up the parcel from the van when it stops outside their house - with their phone talking to the van to confirm identity, receipt, etc. with cryptographic signatures.
If they are not at home then the route dynamically updates to not attempt delivery - either missing them out entirely that evening, or updating to a later time.
There's no 'getting people to comply' just an automatic conversation that goes on in the background to make sure person and parcel meet.
Jun 9th 2018, 5:39 am
#1285
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Feb 2005
Posts: 15,526
Re: The world of automation
Still don't think you are getting it.
You can have the app alert the person "trying to deliver this evening, will you be in?" If they say yes you load it onto the van, and then the route is determined by times that people say they will be available, etc. - a dynamically formed route.
As the van gets closer to the house the app checks that the person is still at home, and if so it alerts them as the van turns into their road so they are ready to receive to pick up the parcel from the van when it stops outside their house - with their phone talking to the van to confirm identity, receipt, etc. with cryptographic signatures.
If they are not at home then the route dynamically updates to not attempt delivery - either missing them out entirely that evening, or updating to a later time.
There's no 'getting people to comply' just an automatic conversation that goes on in the background to make sure person and parcel meet.
You can have the app alert the person "trying to deliver this evening, will you be in?" If they say yes you load it onto the van, and then the route is determined by times that people say they will be available, etc. - a dynamically formed route.
As the van gets closer to the house the app checks that the person is still at home, and if so it alerts them as the van turns into their road so they are ready to receive to pick up the parcel from the van when it stops outside their house - with their phone talking to the van to confirm identity, receipt, etc. with cryptographic signatures.
If they are not at home then the route dynamically updates to not attempt delivery - either missing them out entirely that evening, or updating to a later time.
There's no 'getting people to comply' just an automatic conversation that goes on in the background to make sure person and parcel meet.
I'm talking about the mass books, small chinese parcels, records, clothes, shoes, that posties delivers, there are 10 times the number of those that vans carry. Parcels with an average weight of around 1.5 kilo at the most.
I do understand your app, you dont seem to understand the kind of parcels combined with the volumes I'm talking about. These are not van parcels, these are postie push bike parcels.... that need signatures and someone to accept them.
I'll see if I can find a photo of a typical cage full example.
I wouldn't be surprised if we are down to a delivery to 1 in 5 household rate now.
Jun 9th 2018, 8:55 am
#1286
snɐןɔ ʎʇıuɐs
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 6,558
Re: The world of automation
I can see the big parcels and the small parcels getting dealt with OK - but I'm kind of questioning the basic mail delivery. Not only are the fees small, it's generally now the stuff that nobody wants to receive - bills, junk mail, etc. I think it's that that the posties will be left with.
Jun 9th 2018, 2:09 pm
#1287
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 14,040
Re: The world of automation
Which is prime ground for the drones to land on, using the same approach.
I can see the big parcels and the small parcels getting dealt with OK - but I'm kind of questioning the basic mail delivery. Not only are the fees small, it's generally now the stuff that nobody wants to receive - bills, junk mail, etc. I think it's that that the posties will be left with.
I can see the big parcels and the small parcels getting dealt with OK - but I'm kind of questioning the basic mail delivery. Not only are the fees small, it's generally now the stuff that nobody wants to receive - bills, junk mail, etc. I think it's that that the posties will be left with.
"Can I fly there"
The answer is no for the best part of Melbourne and most of Sydney.
Jun 10th 2018, 5:26 pm
#1288
Yo
Joined: Nov 2012
Location: UK
Posts: 24,474
Re: The world of automation
I think you'll find, in large cities like London, there hundreds of thousands if not millions of people doing back office work which can be automated. Australia must be an odd place where mail delivery seems to be stuck in the 90's, you don't Amazon, and yet routine office work has already been eliminated.
Jun 10th 2018, 5:29 pm
#1289
Yo
Joined: Nov 2012
Location: UK
Posts: 24,474
Re: The world of automation
Still don't think you are getting it.
You can have the app alert the person "trying to deliver this evening, will you be in?" If they say yes you load it onto the van, and then the route is determined by times that people say they will be available, etc. - a dynamically formed route.
As the van gets closer to the house the app checks that the person is still at home, and if so it alerts them as the van turns into their road so they are ready to receive to pick up the parcel from the van when it stops outside their house - with their phone talking to the van to confirm identity, receipt, etc. with cryptographic signatures.
If they are not at home then the route dynamically updates to not attempt delivery - either missing them out entirely that evening, or updating to a later time.
There's no 'getting people to comply' just an automatic conversation that goes on in the background to make sure person and parcel meet.
You can have the app alert the person "trying to deliver this evening, will you be in?" If they say yes you load it onto the van, and then the route is determined by times that people say they will be available, etc. - a dynamically formed route.
As the van gets closer to the house the app checks that the person is still at home, and if so it alerts them as the van turns into their road so they are ready to receive to pick up the parcel from the van when it stops outside their house - with their phone talking to the van to confirm identity, receipt, etc. with cryptographic signatures.
If they are not at home then the route dynamically updates to not attempt delivery - either missing them out entirely that evening, or updating to a later time.
There's no 'getting people to comply' just an automatic conversation that goes on in the background to make sure person and parcel meet.
Jun 10th 2018, 11:49 pm
#1290
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 14,040
Re: The world of automation
An LSE economist was predicting that automation would take jobs, but not until the next recession :
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/0..._threatens_it/
.
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/0..._threatens_it/
.
But as we know cost control is very much a secondary priority to growth. Cost control saves money (finite) where growth makes money (infinite)
We do know there are jobs out there now which could be automated today. But what's the point of risking growth, and adding expenditure investment in technology when people are making money.
So come the next recession people will lose jobs and the first to go will be wasters. Always is.
So the clincher comes on the other side. When businesses start to make money again will they use that money to invest in automation or will they just follow default settings and hire. Well probably a bit of both. The waster positions probably won't get filled. You've been without them during the recession, why fill them again.
So what happens to the wasters. Well they didn't have jobs in the recession. Some will retrain and some will change careers, some will retire. Some will never be employed. No different to previous recessions.
What about technology adoption? Well for starters it costs. If you are moving out of a recession you are treading pretty carefully. Are you going to invest in automation or hire a person, who is cheap and who you can get rid of pretty quickly. Probably the later as most businesses are pretty risk adverse.
So increasing technology adoption and automation needs a kicker. The only one on the horizon is growth and productivity increases which is all about making money which means if you are growing, jobs aren't dying.
Ask Ozzie all about that. He was supposed to be automated out of existence years ago but then Oz Post started making money.
Last edited by Beoz; Jun 10th 2018 at 11:53 pm.