ozzieeagle

Ahh there's the rub, you have to have secure delivery points IMO before any Automated delivery can ever be considered. So a secure automonous delivery point,, so it's connected via the net is the first port of call. Thats why the car boot method is probably going to be a winner. Otherwise people are going to have to meet some cost in installing automated receiving systems in their households. It's going to be very cheap to do this with a vehicle.

ozzieeagle

I actually dont mind sharing my own idea for a interim bridge for the above, potentially a 30 year bridge IMO.... AFAIK the following hasn't been tried anywhere else in the world to this point. Ive talked to people at post about it, in my local facility and they think it's a winner. This will basically only work in built up urban areas though. Basically the Parcel driver delivers say 80 to 100 shmall to medium parcels (less than 3kg) to one neighbourhood local household point.... these are postie parcels not van ones....... A household with a stay at home/work from home part time worker that wants to earn a bit of income whilst looking after kids or similar type of resonbility where they are proven realiable and honest. Then those parcels are delivered/attempted delivered with a very local always open pick up point within walking distance of that area, via a buggy and on foot. This would save hours of driving whilst employing people that need a small part time income. The only issue stopping this happening at present are scanning issues.

It would save heaps of time, be very convient and potentially offer 15 hour a day or more secure delivery or pick up option and potentially be cheaper than current methods of final delivery. It's also an expandable business for a person that wants to connect with neihbourhood solutions for different needs for different people.


Where I live here in Coburg, there would be at least 200 parcels delivered daily within a 1.5 kilometer radius of my house every day. Easy walking...... thats also a 80 to 100 dollar a day income for someone which is actually slightly less than current delivery rates for the final handler..... It should take about 3-4 hours per day to complete.... which isn't a bad income for someone stuck at home....Potentially mostly tax free.

Beoz

You assume everyone has a car like that have a residence. This is not the case.

Anyway, if Garry's model of cars become autonomous and on a subscription service ever comes into being (which is not so far fetched for the distant future) then it kind of nails the boot theory.

I know car ownership is a passion for some but for others it's a matter of convenience. If I had a subscription car available on tap at an instant I would have no need for a car.

Increasingly in urban areas cars aren't needed. We have one car for our house and it get used about 4 times a week.

ozzieeagle

No I dont, delivery time issues are mostly door waiting, hence the car boot option puts a great dent in that. It's doorstep waiting which is the biggest issue in time wasting for delivery. Mum in the showeer equates to 4 or 5 deliveries in some cases...... Thats out of the average expectation of 22 or there abouts per hour. Someone on foot with a dedicated automated delivery point can possibly do 40 to 50 an hour..... more in very densely populated areas. No ones home is at least 2.5 deliveries.

Shard

Because they haven't really been automated yet? They've just been given computers to use which has led to a mushrooming in number crunching and planning. Once those computers have the autonomy to make the decisions themselves, which given the 'internet of things' data volume and velocity they will need to have, office workers will find their talents marginalized. The problem with the naysayers, is they're simply unaware of the capability of (even) narrow AI that is going to be deployed in the next 5-10 years. Obviously some white collar jobs will exist, creativity-driven, human-relationship driven roles, but much of office work work is routine enough that machines will be able to undertake it.

Shard

A convoluted article. Hard to know the speed of the switch as companies will attempt (at least for publicity purposes) to re-deploy personnel, and also want to maintain HR capacity until any automated system is fully implemented and reliable, but I agree it has less to do with the business cycle, and more to do with competitive behavior.

There's certainly some seismic shifts going on in the UK high street, as you may have heard.

Beoz

So this is about minimizing waste which is where most automation excels. Or better put, increasing production and in this case, volume of deliveries.

Interestingly I had a big box of wine delivered this week. (should keep us going for a month). Oz post was sending me texts with delivery options (obviously in an effort to remove the wasted trip if I wasn't home).

I couldn't recall whether I had it delivered to home or the office. So I looked up Oz Post on Facebook Messenger, sent them a message asking if it was going to the office or home address, 5 minutes later they messaged back with the answer.

So then I could select the delivery option.

Where saving wastage might kill a couple of delivery drivers or better still, increase the volume of deliveries, there's a new back end army of digital communicators minimizing waste and increasing production.

ozzieeagle

Thats the net though, purely and simply and jobs have been created out of that via logistics, with a lot more employment in that industry to come IMO. There's a golden opportunity out there that no one has realised. It's to do with neighbourhood needs and personal contact via the items delivered from a very local source. Massive franchise opportunity that could go worldwide. Need a homecarer, see the delivery person, need a babysitter, see the delivery person.... etc etc etc. The list goes on and on. That delivery person, could actually get to know almost the needs of 1500 households if they have the right outgoing upsell characteristics.. So for once I'm taking the Beoz approach on this. I really can see opportunity here.... and it's massive. Everything that comes via TNT Amazon, Fastaway, Post, DHL getting delivered to one point and hand delivered from there on foot. You would easily visit 1 in 6 households daily on a run close to your household....... Then there's groceries


Someone needs to put some real thought and money into this.

Beoz

There is not a single routine role in any of our Australian offices. We have no admin and no receptionists. The closest we get to wipe out staff is a couple of accountants, a finance director and HR. The sooner they wipe those out the better. However, the more rules and red tape we put in place the more we need the bean counters. After all, there is no business without money.

The rest of the offices contain all manner of skills but most importantly, everyone is client facing. Clients have the money and it's all about extracting money from them. The more people you have doing that, the more you make.

People my offices are a little different but what white collar jobs still exist that are routine?

Shard

This is really half baked. Why do people need to 'see the delivery person' when there Google Assistant on their phone can practically already provide all that information. The tech companies are tracking our 'needs' and will be aiming to meet them seemlessly, i.e. before we even know we have the need. As for deliveries, arguing that machines are not going to be able to do this simple task is to completely misjudge the process transformations in automation. Earlier you raised "waiting time" as an issue...seriously? There are a myriad of low tech solutions to deal with that. Human beings employed to lift small boxes out of vans they are paid to drive is about as necessary as switchboard operators.

Shard

Your example of Beoz Plc illustrates my point nicely.

Elsewhere, plenty of routine office jobs in accounting, finance, insurance, law, most administration, actually. Anything which involves reading a document and processing it in line with company guidelines or legal frameworks. I mean, there are still people who do data entry FFS. The point is the vast majority of jobs that can be automated have not yet been automated, but that doesn't mean they won't be in the future.

ozzieeagle

22 years in that exact same industry tells me differently Shard. It is indeed the waiting times on doorsteps that causes the delays. Not the transportation times. What I'm talking about is a bridge in the interim whilst the world turns it's attention to automating household receiving systems. Again this delivery person could be selling those systems. All delivery orounds are now getting smaller on a geographical basis as the parcel volumes skyrockets. They are also taking longer and longer to deliver as far far far more door knocking is invloved. I predict that it will take at least 30 years to solve this receiving problem.... reason being people are very slow to change and they will need face face contact to be convinced to change.

Anyone that thinks the transportation is the issue really doesn't know what they are on about...... It's the doorstep.

As post has become more agile at the sorting and processing stage, the delivery stage has gone rapidly backwards. They are tieing up heaps of rounds daily in Melbourne now, undeliverable because of lack of staff and volumes. This has never happened before. A final stage solution is needed and it's needed very soon. It's parcels that has caused this as well.

Shard

Here in the UK, the doorstep issue is resolved by parcels simply being left on the doorstep. We get texts/emails in the hours and minutes before a delivery. In less safe neighbourhoods, surely a centralised locker could be set up. In fact, many supermarkets and retail parks in the UK already have such lockers which you can nominate deliveries to, and indeed post offices and supermarkets themselves can be nominated as collection points. I'm afraid your 22 years in the delivery business was in an age before every person has a computer and GPS device in their pocket, and will soon have an intelligent speaking assistant in their pocket.

GarryP

Also worth noting that if you are doing autonomous vehicle deliveries, you can make them in the evening when people are actually around. Indeed, you can have a app on the phone, accessing the location, so you KNOW they are home before you turn up, coupled with alerts such that they are waiting at the door for when it appears.

Postal services will really need to up their game.

ozzieeagle

Correct gary, however that is years away yet...... It's rolling out much much slower than you think. Meanwhile we have a crisis in delivery. That's fair dinkum as well.

People really are underestimating the doorstep issue, one person not home, with the 3 knocks required by Aus Post Standards takes at least 2.5 mins to complete. You get 4 of those in a row and all of a sudden you are 15 parcel deliveries behind.

Thing is I know the times allocated, I know the pressures involved, I know why people throw parcels.

The tieing of rounds issue is something I'm very tempted to go to the press with. This is 100 pct a doorstep v labour availability issue.

The other factor is that TNT Amazon, DHL and Postal services would really benefit from a universal one size fits all tracking and scanning solution..... You guys are in IT.... I've no idea how long that would take to solve. However if someone can come up with something that fits the average android/ios systems thats another few 100 million bucks in your pocket.

The local delivery person, means access locally to someone at least 15 hours a day, and potentially remote pick up 24/7..... within walking distance of peoples homes.