Shard

How about this scenario: cyclist is cycling in a clearly marked bike lane and wearing a high visibility vest. Weather is clear and the road is straight and empty. Human driver momentarily feels drowsy and/or uses his cellphone. Car inadvertently swerves into the cyclist. The question for AV will be how many accidents happen in aggregate.

Beoz

Hoping here the human is able to utter the words "engage auto pilot" before falling asleep.

2030?

Shard

My guess...

Local-area robo-taxis by 2022

Level 4 AV vehicles commonplace (say 30% of traffic) by 2025

L5 AV at >50% by 2030, sounds about right, if a bit conservative

GarryP

Three things to bear in mind :

1. People who drive lots, upgrade vehicles often. So even if there were only 10% of vehicles being Cat 4, the mileage %age could easily be 20%. That particularly goes since I think the long distance driving will be a primary win for automation (simple, boring, lots of miles for reps).
2. The big manufacturers are aiming primarily at robotaxis, which will be driving around a lot. So even only 5% of cars being robotaxies, might mean 30% of mileage driven.
3. Software upgrades will probably mean if they start off with Cat 4-Local, they will end up Cat 5-Everywhere

Upshot is I think 30-40% of road kms will be potentially autonomous by 2025, assuming laws don't hamper adoption. And by 2030 we'll probably start to see manuals banned from certain areas (eg CBD) and adoption hits 70-80% of kms.

GarryP

Here's the video from the Uber/Pedestrian death.


Don't think many human drivers would have had a hope in that scenario.

Blame will probably be split between the pedestrian (who was ambling across the road in dark clothing) and the driver (who it looks like was texting). Only likely question of the automation is likely to be why it didn't do better than a human would have. In theory the Lidar should have seen her.

Beoz

It's kind of weird the system did not detect an obstacle in the way.

Surely they are not using camera's alone. Must be some type of radar, laser going on?

GarryP

As I said, they have a LIDAR that should detect in that situation. However, that would make it better than a human in the same circumstances.

Beoz

Lidar, laser, radar, all about bouncing stuff of other stuff.

Clearly the bounce didn't work this time.

Yep agree in that situation where the object was not moving quickly or changing direction quickly lidar should have picked that up. I ran a lidar point cloud on my house a few months back and it picked up people no issue.

Will be interesting to see where the technical issues were.

Shard

Never understand cyclists and pedestrians that use the roads (especially dark country lanes in the UK) wearing dark or black clothing. It really is crazy to do that.

Beoz

Don't worry. Liar doesn't have eyes ...... apparently

uk_grenada

Artificial vision is powerful stuff if it’s connected to the right Ai. At a closed day at an airshow I once wore a state of the art helicopter gunship helmet. It superimposes 3d radar, image intensifier, infrared, map view and AI attack computer info on your vision (a trifle scary, part of it is scanned via laser onto your retina) the view is amazingly detailed, if you look left at the weapons boom it gives you info on the contents. The computer also talks to you about urgent stuff in binaural sound using different voices. Would you believe the offensive stuff is pretty much Arnold Schwarzenegger, and damage control is a little girl who might whisper in your left ear, is the port engine on fire?

Amazulu

That's what the suits said in the movie WarGames - and that nearly started global thermonuclear war

And in the movie Terminator - and that DID cause global thermonuclear war and the near destruction of humanity

Scary stuff

Shard

Beloved by journos, but the biggest cringe in the AI community.

ozzieeagle

When are the fold over phones coming.... .The ones that give ability to read A4 size pages without scrolling, I thought it was this year?

I'm hoping it will make a big dent in the amount of large letters we receive at post.

Whatever happened to that idea of being credited to watch advertising on T'net and specifically your phone by the advertisers.

Amazulu

Eh? Who gives a toss what the 'AI community' thinks about a movie - albeit one of the best sci-fi films ever made?