Originally Posted by Beoz

We don't seem to hear a lot about freight options in transportation but that certainly seems to make the most sense as a starting point. Maybe freight and transportation companies don't see the value in replacing their fleet with automation - cheaper just to retain drivers.

Originally Posted by GarryP

It's being worked on, but I guess its a control edge case on the main vehicle automation thrust.

As for cost/benefit - the rigs are expensive, and getting that back means getting the utilisation up. Problem is hours a driver can work (max 12 from 24) - which means the benefit of automation is massive to the bottom line (40% less easily) - less costs, more utilisation, less hassle. They will shift over PDQ when the offer is there - or they will lose contracts. And, of course, Elon is targetting that marketplace, delivery from 2020.

Originally Posted by ozzieeagle

I've just come to the realisation that right now, there should be signs of car ownership dropping per head of population in very Central Urban Areas, are there any figures to back this up. If there are this should be a precurser of things to come. I do know that our local council Moreland is now approving housing without their own car parking spots being a pre requisite.

Originally Posted by GarryP

2020 Initial rollout (someone will want to jump the gun)
2021 Most players will rollout, with a landrush approach to building out robotaxis.
2022 Australia gets rollout, late again.
2023 If you are buying a new car, you get one with an autonomous option.
2024 Armageddon for professional drivers is underway, Robotaxis are THE thing. Long distance transport is automated.
2025 New businesses are starting up, based on the autonomous vehicle as a key part
2026 People start talking about how dangerous manual cars are.
2027 Parking starts disappearing in the CBD
2028 Owning a car falls away, like the CD
2029 Insurance rates starts to make owning and driving your own car prohibitively expensive.
2030 First CBD bans non-autonomous vehicles.

Originally Posted by Shard

2040 Beoz buys a smartphone

Originally Posted by GarryP

You joke, but the smartphone penetration percentage for Australia is only 83-84% currently.

By the time the last 10% get onboard, there will be something new.

Originally Posted by Beoz

Google Glasses looked so promising

Originally Posted by GarryP

They are aiming at contact lens now .....

Originally Posted by GarryP

They are aiming at contact lens now .....

Originally Posted by Beoz

The appeal of glasses is you can take them off, like putting the phone down. The effort I see people in taking out or putting on contacts makes this idea a non starter, except for military purposes.

Originally Posted by GarryP

BTW Elon has just twitted that they technically will probably have a workable autonomous vehicle in 12 months, but then it's the legislation....

Originally Posted by Beoz

In post 1548 there are already apparently multiple companies driving autonomously on the streets.

Who is Telsa playing catch up to?

Originally Posted by GarryP

Slightly different emphasis. The Waymos etc have cat 4 over particular areas. Elon is talking about a generalised capability, a software upgrade to the cars he already has out there. The twit was in the context of new cars delivering themselves to their new owners by driving themselves to the door.

And the point is, 2020, not 2030.