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The world of automation

The world of automation

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Old Aug 14th 2016, 1:37 am
  #136  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by GarryP View Post

Within that net figure there is a big shift in the skills that are needed, with IT, big data science, etc. doing well. The kind of stuff it's difficult to reskill people for (although that's what they think they will do).
Ho ho ho. So you are saying there will be new jobs to replace the old but no one with the appetite to re-train because they all want to remain as truck drivers and paper shufflers.
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Old Aug 14th 2016, 1:59 am
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Beoz View Post
Ho ho ho. So you are saying there will be new jobs to replace the old but no one with the appetite to re-train because they all want to remain as truck drivers and paper shufflers.
There will be a large number percentage of Truck drivers and their Ilk that wont be capable of being retrained.....Perhaps the majority... which is why they become Truck drivers in the first place.... Unfortunately for them.

It's a bit like saying there were new jobs up't North after Thatcher killed of the mining industry. I bet the vast majority of those new jobs weren't filled by those miners though.

It's looking more and more like the Tesla 3 will be capable of full Autonomy.... So that's late next year.
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Old Aug 14th 2016, 2:20 am
  #138  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Beoz View Post
Ho ho ho. So you are saying there will be new jobs to replace the old but no one with the appetite to re-train because they all want to remain as truck drivers and paper shufflers.
No.

They are saying there will not be enough new jobs to replace the old, by a long stretch. They are saying that the rote office job type of employment is going to be badly hit, fast. I'm saying that the types of skills they say will be needed in future (big data, etc.) aren't really the skills that those people will be able to gain, no matter how much they might like.

Basic problem is, you can't 'train' them to do a rote set of tasks to do the new jobs (like big data) since it's exactly those jobs that are the ones that can be automated. It's much more a tacit than explicit knowledge, and even then, if you are pattern matching, you're automatable.

This report came from talking to CEOs etc. in big companies, and I don't think they really get what machine learning means. Even so, they are talking about large scale net job losses. That should tell you something about the idea of new jobs being able to offset the lost old jobs.
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Old Aug 14th 2016, 4:00 am
  #139  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by ozzieeagle View Post
There will be a large number percentage of Truck drivers and their Ilk that wont be capable of being retrained.....Perhaps the majority... which is why they become Truck drivers in the first place.... Unfortunately for them.

It's a bit like saying there were new jobs up't North after Thatcher killed of the mining industry. I bet the vast majority of those new jobs weren't filled by those miners though.

It's looking more and more like the Tesla 3 will be capable of full Autonomy.... So that's late next year.
I bet you the miners figured it out though. When you've got mouths to feed, its amazing how the human reacts.

Its a bit like you Ozzie. You are reasonably tech savvy for a mail sorter. You can use the internet, configure a VPN or DNS to watch whatever you want.

You underestimate the truck driver and their ability to adapt. The only truck driver I know (former truck driver now) now does IT for the NSW police force.

Like anything, the old boys will retire, the young will find something else to do when there salaries become lower and lower with less work available. Those coming out of school won't necome truckies. When was the last time you saw someone doing a blacksmith apprenticeship? Exactly.

History shows that.
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Old Aug 14th 2016, 4:29 am
  #140  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Even Brexit creates jobs.

http://www.news.com.au/world/brexit-may-not-happen-until-late-2019/news-story/1e64ba05ac8a4c40c8c6eff5074d56c9

Just what we need. More public servants.
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Old Aug 14th 2016, 4:55 am
  #141  
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Default Re: The world of automation

So according to the future-gazing 'experts' on this thread, we are going to have mass deployment of driverless trucks within the next few years (what was it, 1.8m in the US, soon)

Bull f**king shit

The technology is available right now to make airliners pilotless

Where are they then? What's the timeline for their imminent/future deployment?

That's right, there isn't one and there is no medium term chance of this even happening

What needs to be realised is that just because a technology can be used, it doesn't mean that it will be

Driverless trucks will happen but not for a while yet
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Old Aug 14th 2016, 5:59 am
  #142  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Beoz View Post
You underestimate the truck driver and their ability to adapt. The only truck driver I know (former truck driver now) now does IT for the NSW police force.

Like anything, the old boys will retire, the young will find something else to do when there salaries become lower and lower with less work available. Those coming out of school won't necome truckies. When was the last time you saw someone doing a blacksmith apprenticeship? Exactly.

History shows that.
We back to truckies now, rather than the other types of automation ?

As I've mentioned before, the issue is the speed with which the change is likely to happen. We've already had convoys crossing continents, and we know the progress in cars, so let's assume that we have Gen3 in trucks by 2018 and Gen 4 by 2020, using the same hardware base. Further, let's say trucks on defined route into cities was legislated for by 2022.

For the Gen 3, let's say that one driver could convoy multiple unmanned trucks across country, and that Gen 4 was allowed to drive those distances on it's own.

The cost and flexibility of having the distances eaten up by autonomous vehicles in it's own right would revolutionise haulage. With 35% of costs in the driver, you could underbid a manual hauler if you fitted autonomous tech to your truck. As such anyone who doesn't take advantage doesn't win the contracts.

Plus, of course, the autonomous truck driving across the Nullabor is going to be safer than a truckie on speed.

You have to assume that the switchover would happen on a three year cadence - early movers the first year, bulk second year, those of the laggards that still exist the third year. So, by the early 2020s we'll see the decimation of the long distance driver - with pay and conditions for those that remain tanking. By 2025 it's a done deal.
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Old Aug 14th 2016, 7:24 am
  #143  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Amazulu View Post
So according to the future-gazing 'experts' on this thread, we are going to have mass deployment of driverless trucks within the next few years (what was it, 1.8m in the US, soon)

Bull f**king shit

The technology is available right now to make airliners pilotless

Where are they then? What's the timeline for their imminent/future deployment?

That's right, there isn't one and there is no medium term chance of this even happening

What needs to be realised is that just because a technology can be used, it doesn't mean that it will be

Driverless trucks will happen but not for a while yet
They are using them in your state right now.



69 at one mine site alone....

A driverless truck at Rio Tinto's Yandicoogina mine in the Pilbara in WA 18 October 2015. - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
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Old Aug 14th 2016, 7:40 am
  #144  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by ozzieeagle View Post
Totally and utterly different from what is being talked about on this thread - which is millions of driverless trucks operating on the public road network within a few years

Chalk and cheese

I've been involved a bit with driverless mine haul packs. The last RTIO project that I was design lead on was planned from the start to have completely driverless trucks. This mine is now fully operational and the automated Komatsu haul packs are a great success. However, they are horrendously expensive and RTIO is actually not saving much money. The main reason for going automated is that trucks are not members of, or can join the CFMEU

I laughed a few years ago who RTIO allowed the CFMEU access to their train driver pool. The CFMEU were cock-a-hoop. A few months later RTIO announced that they were making all their trains driverless
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Old Aug 14th 2016, 7:50 am
  #145  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Amazulu View Post
Totally and utterly different from what is being talked about on this thread - which is millions of driverless trucks operating on the public road network within a few years

Chalk and cheese

I've been involved a bit with driverless mine haul packs. The last RTIO project that I was design lead on was planned from the start to have completely driverless trucks. This mine is now fully operational and the automated Komatsu haul packs are a great success. However, they are horrendously expensive and RTIO is actually not saving much money. The main reason for going automated is that trucks are not members of, or can join the CFMEU

I laughed a few years ago who RTIO allowed the CFMEU access to their train driver pool. The CFMEU were cock-a-hoop. A few months later RTIO announced that they were making all their trains driverless

The Dutch are also experimenting with the technology and have completed a autonomous convoy across Europe. With Rotterdam being the largest port in Europe, this technology will cement the Dutch position as the transport hub of Europe. So they are on a mission.

Driverless truck convoy platoons across Europe - CNET

Bottom line is money..... that's the main and only force in this.
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Old Aug 14th 2016, 9:19 am
  #146  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Amazulu View Post
Totally and utterly different from what is being talked about on this thread - which is millions of driverless trucks operating on the public road network within a few years

Chalk and cheese

I've been involved a bit with driverless mine haul packs. The last RTIO project that I was design lead on was planned from the start to have completely driverless trucks. This mine is now fully operational and the automated Komatsu haul packs are a great success. However, they are horrendously expensive and RTIO is actually not saving much money. The main reason for going automated is that trucks are not members of, or can join the CFMEU

I laughed a few years ago who RTIO allowed the CFMEU access to their train driver pool. The CFMEU were cock-a-hoop. A few months later RTIO announced that they were making all their trains driverless
Ha. The CFMEU digging their own grave. All about me me me for nothing in return. All too easy to side step the me me me when the lack of production is far more costly than a truck drivers salary.

The automation bandwagon also forget the miles of red tape and expense required to implement such things.

Take Google Earth for example. You can now have a 3D view of some cities. How do they do it? Well they send up a chopper and take thousands of photographs which are then composed together to produce a 3D model. Why is Sydney not done? Well CASA won't let Google fly the chopper over the city as the airport landing path is over the city. The tech exists, red tape in the way again. You can't even send a drone up without hours of paper work and approvals, once you get the approval, the weather is crap and you have to go for approval again.

If its that difficult to send a chopper over the city, or get a drone up, think of the red tape involved in driverless vehicles on public roads. Ouch. 2020 my arse.
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Old Aug 14th 2016, 9:22 am
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by GarryP View Post

As I've mentioned before, the issue is the speed with which the change is likely to happen. We've already had convoys crossing continents, and we know the progress in cars, so let's assume that we have Gen3 in trucks by 2018 and Gen 4 by 2020, using the same hardware base. Further, let's say trucks on defined route into cities was legislated for by 2022.
See post above. Red tape. 2022, my arse.
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Old Aug 14th 2016, 10:21 am
  #148  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Beoz View Post
The automation bandwagon also forget the miles of red tape and expense required to implement such things.

Take Google Earth for example. You can now have a 3D view of some cities. How do they do it? Well they send up a chopper and take thousands of photographs which are then composed together to produce a 3D model. Why is Sydney not done? Well CASA won't let Google fly the chopper over the city as the airport landing path is over the city. The tech exists, red tape in the way again. You can't even send a drone up without hours of paper work and approvals, once you get the approval, the weather is crap and you have to go for approval again.

If its that difficult to send a chopper over the city, or get a drone up, think of the red tape involved in driverless vehicles on public roads. Ouch. 2020 my arse.
You got a citation for that? Only as far as I know Sydney has 3D mapping. Melbourne certainly does, since they use it for town planning etc. - everything is mapped such that they can do things like check if a new skyscraper blocks too much light.

Redtape melts in the face of money, and part of what I described shows how the long distance stuff can be done early, forcing the hand of backward types (or they get cut off the haulage network). And as I say, being safer than a bunch of amphetamine dosed truckies isn't that hard.

Six years is quite a long time.
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Old Aug 14th 2016, 10:48 am
  #149  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by GarryP View Post
You got a citation for that? Only as far as I know Sydney has 3D mapping. Melbourne certainly does, since they use it for town planning etc. - everything is mapped such that they can do things like check if a new skyscraper blocks too much light.
You are talking a different model. Yes the city council has a model, modelled by modellers, used for light purposes amongst others. Different organisations and different companies have different models for different purposes created in different ways. Go to Google Earth and spin Newcastle, do the same for Sydney, and notice most buildings are missing. Googles model of Newcastle (not the manual created Sketchup models placed on the maps in Sydney) are created by 1000's of photographs taken from a chopper.

Originally Posted by GarryP View Post
Redtape melts in the face of money, and part of what I described shows how the long distance stuff can be done early, forcing the hand of backward types (or they get cut off the haulage network). And as I say, being safer than a bunch of amphetamine dosed truckies isn't that hard.

Six years is quite a long time.
Planes have been automated for a long time. We still have pilots. See the similarity?
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Old Aug 14th 2016, 10:56 am
  #150  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by GarryP View Post
You got a citation for that? Only as far as I know Sydney has 3D mapping. Melbourne certainly does, since they use it for town planning etc. - everything is mapped such that they can do things like check if a new skyscraper blocks too much light.

Redtape melts in the face of money, and part of what I described shows how the long distance stuff can be done early, forcing the hand of backward types (or they get cut off the haulage network). And as I say, being safer than a bunch of amphetamine dosed truckies isn't that hard.

Six years is quite a long time.
Just checked. Sydney still missing the Google Earth photo capture. Newcastle has it. So does Melbourne.
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