UK House Prices to drop another 55%..
Mar 13th 2009, 1:02 pm
#61
Has left the building
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 4,079
Re: UK House Prices to drop another 55%..
Out of all this mess I hope people are more wary about considering a house an investment and but think of it as somewhere as a home that they can live in for many years. People moving around every 2 years, trying to get a slightly bigger, better, newer house drives the house prices up.
treating the property as stock item.
Mar 13th 2009, 2:05 pm
#62
Auntie Fa
Joined: Nov 2006
Location: Seattle
Posts: 7,344
Re: UK House Prices to drop another 55%..
Mar 13th 2009, 3:16 pm
#63
Forum Regular
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 43
Re: UK House Prices to drop another 55%..
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/gra...ouse-price.php
I think this graph gives a good indication of where prices are headed.
In the last down turn there was a 38% drop from peak to trough. On that basis there is another 25% to go from 156k. In the 1980 there was only an 18% drop peak to trough.
The thing to note is that the prices always go above and below the trend line on the way up and the way down respectively. So there is likely to be further drops. However if the government goes on with low interest rates and inflation kicks in the nominal drop won't be so much.
My bet is another 20% from 156k or 117k.
I think this graph gives a good indication of where prices are headed.
In the last down turn there was a 38% drop from peak to trough. On that basis there is another 25% to go from 156k. In the 1980 there was only an 18% drop peak to trough.
The thing to note is that the prices always go above and below the trend line on the way up and the way down respectively. So there is likely to be further drops. However if the government goes on with low interest rates and inflation kicks in the nominal drop won't be so much.
My bet is another 20% from 156k or 117k.
Mar 13th 2009, 7:45 pm
#64
Demi-God
Joined: Oct 2008
Location: Far North Queensland
Posts: 2,812
Re: UK House Prices to drop another 55%..
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/gra...ouse-price.php
I think this graph gives a good indication of where prices are headed.
In the last down turn there was a 38% drop from peak to trough. On that basis there is another 25% to go from 156k. In the 1980 there was only an 18% drop peak to trough.
The thing to note is that the prices always go above and below the trend line on the way up and the way down respectively. So there is likely to be further drops. However if the government goes on with low interest rates and inflation kicks in the nominal drop won't be so much.
My bet is another 20% from 156k or 117k.
I think this graph gives a good indication of where prices are headed.
In the last down turn there was a 38% drop from peak to trough. On that basis there is another 25% to go from 156k. In the 1980 there was only an 18% drop peak to trough.
The thing to note is that the prices always go above and below the trend line on the way up and the way down respectively. So there is likely to be further drops. However if the government goes on with low interest rates and inflation kicks in the nominal drop won't be so much.
My bet is another 20% from 156k or 117k.
Mar 13th 2009, 7:46 pm
#65
Demi-God
Joined: Oct 2008
Location: Far North Queensland
Posts: 2,812
Re: UK House Prices to drop another 55%..
People remember round numbers as well. Which is a bugger if you're wrong.
Mar 13th 2009, 8:07 pm
#66
Forum Regular
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 43
Re: UK House Prices to drop another 55%..
I was mixing up the trend line to moving average. Not sure that we can say more than that we will under of over shoot the trend, but by how much?
Last edited by australiamaybe; Mar 13th 2009 at 8:22 pm.
Mar 13th 2009, 8:33 pm
#67
Forum Regular
Thread Starter
Joined: Jan 2008
Location: Perth NOR
Posts: 242
Mar 14th 2009, 11:34 am
#69
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Jun 2003
Location: Melbourne, Victoria
Posts: 524
Re: UK House Prices to drop another 55%..
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/gra...ouse-price.php
I think this graph gives a good indication of where prices are headed.
In the last down turn there was a 38% drop from peak to trough. On that basis there is another 25% to go from 156k. In the 1980 there was only an 18% drop peak to trough.
The thing to note is that the prices always go above and below the trend line on the way up and the way down respectively. So there is likely to be further drops. However if the government goes on with low interest rates and inflation kicks in the nominal drop won't be so much.
My bet is another 20% from 156k or 117k.
I think this graph gives a good indication of where prices are headed.
In the last down turn there was a 38% drop from peak to trough. On that basis there is another 25% to go from 156k. In the 1980 there was only an 18% drop peak to trough.
The thing to note is that the prices always go above and below the trend line on the way up and the way down respectively. So there is likely to be further drops. However if the government goes on with low interest rates and inflation kicks in the nominal drop won't be so much.
My bet is another 20% from 156k or 117k.
