northernlights

The respected Numis Securities says the UK house price collapse is nowhere near over - another 55% drop.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...-bankrupt.html

purple rain

So why have you got a smiley with thumbs up ? This is awful news for a lot of people

northernlights

And good news for others.

bcworld

What, Britain being 'bankrupt'?

purple rain

I am sure they sleep well at nights

northerner

Sounds like a heap of crap to me. Already dropped over 20%, 'could drop another 55%' - yeah right. If that were the case I'd buy a couple of places over there myself!

Graham

northerner

I imagine the sentiment was 'good for first time buyers'?

capetosydney

Sorry for stating the obvious but Britain IS bankrupt, denial phase is over, time to accept reality. Pound almost equals euro from highs of 1.50 to pound and down 30% vs US $. Party is over, time to deal with the headache.

vauxhallmonterey

Not that unrealistic, in 8 years we saw our house go from 80K to 320k (West Kent) so an initial 20% would bring that down to 256k and another 55% down to 141k. With the UKs low interest rates houses would normally have doubled in 10 years, this eg showing say 160k. And we felt that after that ten year period a reasonable price for the house given a stable economy would have been about 180k.

CaptainMerton

For people in new builds in places like Manchester and Leeds they will be thinking "not another 55%!"

Funky Monkey

A lot of these "experts" cannot predict f *** all, maybe they will drop another 55% and maybe they won,t. The report states that will happen if the same price correction happens again as it did in the nineties and no one can really predict that.
It is happening all over the world : http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/bu...-14213515.html. Is a 55% drop good for anyone all it does is cause misery and not everyone over indulged and was greedy.
The difference is now that the interest rate is low so 1st time buyers are still looking to buy. When I bought my 1st house back in 1994 the rate was cheap but not what it is today,typical tabloid doom and gloom why can't they put print something positive even if it is crap we would all feel better.

ozzieeagle

It's the odd 5pct that annoys the crap out of me.

Why not 40 or 50 or even 60, WTF predict 55pct. Some of these experts are full of crap.

Britains got the Olympics coming up, surely that counts for something in the East and North London area towards house prices at least, and surely that has a modicum of a spin off effect.

Bermudashorts

A price drop is not only good news for first time buyers, also for people upgrading it is good news. Even if their own house has dropped in value, the larger house they wish to buy will have dropped by more so they are in a slightly better position than before the price falls.

But I still do not believe 55% will happen, because it requires seller co-operation at the end of the day and many sellers (e.g. end of chain, people with negative equity and down sizers) will chose to sit tight and wait it out rather than sell for significantly less than they bought. So a shortage of properties for sale will partially balance the factors causing price drops. I think this is headline seeking journalism.

bcworld

Here's the old graph of housing cycles from HPC:



According to this house prices now are right on trend for the past 30 odd years....of course the price falls are unlikely to stop there as the trough will undershoot the trendline.

If the pattern repeats you'd expect to be paying average 120,000 in say 2012. That would be a further 20% off today's prices and represent a fall of about 40% from the 2007 peak - not totally different from the previous crash in the 90s. In the 90s of course people were compelled to sell by rising interest rates.....I'm not sure what compels them now?

Funky Monkey

Its like the old 1/2 p that we used to have in the U.K

Yes we have the Olympics coming up lets get behind this, I am the only one who seems to think this is good for the country (sorry O.P off topic).