Re: Paris attacks/explosions
 

I feel sorry for Admiral Akbar - he's going to cop a lot of flak going forward I would think...


S

Re: Paris attacks/explosions
 

The take away from the ME disaster is that unpleasant though they were, the regional dictatorships did seem to keep the tribal and religious factional rivalry at bay. It will be interesting to see what happens in Egypt going forward. Mubarak - despite being a huge f**ker - did a reasonably good job of strong arming the small factions. The last thing the West expected was for the Islamic Brotherhood to be elected in pseudo democratic elections.

And the West trying to topple Assad has been a disaster, and has lead to the position we see here today. Trying to get local rebels and other parties to do our dirty work has backfired spectacularly. It's generated a huge power vacuum within regional Syria that has been filled by IS and lots of hardware from defecting elements of the Iraqi army.

And let's not forget that the Saudis are also supplying IS with money, arms and support, yet the US are still supplying Saudi. I saw that Putin made an announcement yesterday about 40 identified backers of IS. He didn't go as far as to mention the Saudis, but we all know that's who he was getting at.

Jordan seems to be the last remnant of sanity in the ME, and even they are starting to look less and less stable as time moves on.

As you said above, it's clear that Western style democracy doesn't work in countries where a predominantly middle aged religion prevails. I don't yet feel able to blame Islam as a culture - there are many strands of Islam, and some of the atrocities visited on Shia muslims by their Sunni brethren are no better than they are visiting on the infidel westerners.

The big question is where exactly do we go from here?


S

Re: Paris attacks/explosions
 

Good question.

Step 1. Build walls.

Step 2. Extinguish your enemy within.

Step 3. Ground forces into Syria.

Step 4. ............. ? That's where it gets really tricky. But its a long term game, that's for sure, but at least you have built your own defences. Right now Europe has none, they don't even have the tech nor the legal means of intercepting comms.

Re: Paris attacks/explosions
 

No. I explicitly said, with reasoning, why walls aren't a player in this. I might also have mentioned the 2.1million muslims already in france, etc.

Re: Paris attacks/explosions
 

I think most people would accept and hope its not a war against an entire religion. ...... though it could become one if you don't put up the walls.

Re: Paris attacks/explosions
 

Forgive me if I'm reading this wrong, but that looks suspiciously like you're apologising on behalf of western civilization for causing the rise in public support for IS. I had a couple of beers last night and my head's still a little fuzzy, so there's every chance I read it wrong.

Re: Paris attacks/explosions
 

If/when that happens it'll be MOAB time

That's cool

Re: Paris attacks/explosions
 

Putting up walls would make that more likely to happen. It'd be solidifying the "us vs them" narrative that the extremists are craving.

Re: Paris attacks/explosions
 

Turkey is meant to be Western Civilization.... well most of it.

I can tell the Turkish and to a lesser extent the Iranian scarf wearing Muslim women apart from most of the others..... They're the ones that greet me in the local shops with a "Hi Luv" in a fairly strong Aussie accent, tinged with a bit of middle eastern. IE: The same greeting as everyone else around here.

So I'm a bit concerned that a sizeable element has seen fit to make it's displeasure known at the football.

I've found out since in having a chat with some locals, that there is a little bit of consternation amongst the Turks, inasmuch as when the Bombs went of in Ankara at the peace rally re their government bombing the Kurds, there wasn't anywhere near the outpouring of grief for this front line country from the rest of Europe. Even though there was a similar number of casualties. That lack of empathy didn't go unnoticed amongst the Turks.

It's a bit like we don't care if this front line predominantly muslim country is on our side or not.

Re: Paris attacks/explosions
 

No, it's more about not drawing lines whilst there are plenty who'd end up on the other side.

At this point you want to do everything to avoid drawing lines/building walls - and this shows why that's key.

Re: Paris attacks/explosions
 

There are already walls. Its called passport control. You get them when you fly into airports. You are logged as entering the country and flag up if you are a wanted man.

When you travel by land, there are no walls, therefore they think you are still in Syria learning how to shoot stuff, rather than being back in Europe, already shooting stuff.

Re: Paris attacks/explosions
 

The west is at a crossroads

Right is integration and assimilation now that it is proven that multiculturalism has failed. Integration and assimilation or separation

Left is an abyss of misogyny, intolerance, homophobia, violence, antisemitism etc - and eventual dhimmitude

I believe that the west has already chosen the right fork but the fog of war is clouding the way - but it'll clear

Re: Paris attacks/explosions
 

Well yes. There is also this stuff called water that keeps a lot of people out. The Uk and Aus has found it handy in that respect.

Your constant use of the term 'walls' is slightly ambiguous. If you mean that refugees should still be allowed in but there should be greater restriction and monitoring of movement then I can dig that.

Re: Paris attacks/explosions
 

Correct. Add the US to that list too.

Refugees who are escaping awkward conditions are suppose to settle in the first safe haven. In this case that would be places like Jordan or Turkey.

Any further movement is economic migration. Of course, someone who is displaced is going to continue travelling to find the best safe haven if they can.

Europe allows this via land and countries surrounding the EU encourage it.

Europe now has a big problem ahead for allowing free movement. Terrorists can just blend in going unoticed and unlogged.

Time to put the walls up.

Re: Paris attacks/explosions
 

Re: Paris attacks/explosions
 

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/europe-s-open-border-policy-may-become-latest-victim-of-terrorism-1.2435486

Re: Paris attacks/explosions
 

1 Hellfire vaporises 10 assholes

Ah, you say. You kill 10 and 100 join their cause

10 Hellfires vaporise 100 assholes

Ah, you say. You kill 100 and 1000 join their cause

100 Hellfires vaporise 1000 assholes

etc

Guess what? They run out of assholes before we run out of Hellfires

Violence has been sorting assholes out for centuries. Violence has ended more conflicts than diplomacy and negotiation. Nothing new today

Re: Paris attacks/explosions
 

Diplomacy and negotiation with IS?

That's already been ruled out.

Re: Paris attacks/explosions
 

You can get much farther with a kind word and a gun than you can with a kind word alone. Al Capone

Re: Paris attacks/explosions
 

Exactly

ISIS is like the Terminator - it cannot be reasoned with

Re: Paris attacks/explosions
 

Look through history. Violence has sorted more problems out than negotiation/diplomacy

ISIS need to be made an offer they can't refuse ;)

Re: Paris attacks/explosions
 

Confirmed - Abdelhamid Abaaoud killed in police raids.

Suspected 'mastermind' of Paris attacks Abdelhamid Abaaoud died in police raid: prosecutor

...... and how easily he shuffled back and forth between Europe and Syria.

Abdelhamid Abaaoud, Alleged Mastermind of Paris Attacks, Was ‘Emir of War’ in Syria - WSJ

Are you seriously trying to suggest open borders and refugee trails do not provide a movement haven for those who have been working with ISIS in Syria?

Re: Paris attacks/explosions
 

what puzzles me more than anything is how an attack by IS isn't an attack by, or representative of Islam, but an attack on IS is an attack on Islam. I think some people have a real problem with themselves and how they live, but not so much of a problem that they'll give it all up.

Re: Paris attacks/explosions
 

What I'm saying (and have said from the beginning) is that walls and borders are a red herring. And your link demonstrates this (if you'd think about it).

Firstly, he was travelling around, through those borders, because he had a french passport. The whole refugee thing wasn't a player.

Second,
so it was the act of placing him 'on the other side of the line', and not dealing with the known issue of radicalisation in jails, that kicked off his terrorist career.

Third, THEY KNEW HE WAS A DANGER - but they didn't have him on a short enough leash to know what he was doing. In other words it's nothing to do with borders, it's to do organisation, intelligence and attention. And I'll hazard a guess that the reason the intelligence services didn't have these is because they have too many potential terrorists to keep track of (false positives).

The reality is you could have shut down all the borders, it wouldn't really have changed anything - all that needs to travel is an idea. The most dangerous individual is one with a brain - and he had a brain. Once radicalised he could attack via a variety of vectors, even without any other contact with an ISIS 'command'. Him going to syria should have been a cockup on the part ISIS, because it put him on the radar. He succeeded because the intelligence services failed (which you are not hearing about) - nothing to do with borders.

Re: Paris attacks/explosions
 

"I say we take off and nuke the entire site from orbit. It's the only way to be sure."

Ripley's First Law of Conflict Resolution.


S

Re: Paris attacks/explosions
 

Sorry Garry, and I hate saying this, but you are missing the point.

Firstly if he was actually carrying a passport, which he would not have been, it would have been from Belgium.

Secondly, if you have borders where checks occur he would have come up on the radar (if he had a passport which you suggest) or he would have had a difficult time progressing further. If you transit with refugees across borders where there are no checks, without docs, you don't pop up on the radar, and you can progress from country to country. Don't you get it? How did he get back to Europe unnoticed?

YOU BLEND IN WITH THE TIDE OF SYRIAN REFUGEES. ..... You seem to be ignoring that bit ..... probably because your left wing instincts are placing priorities on Syrian refugees and your desire to have them spread throughout Europe rather than living in tent cities inside the Turkey or Jordanian border.

Re: Paris attacks/explosions
 

The point you are missing is he was already supposed to have been 'on the radar' - but the radar, and their systems, were faulty. No point in more walls if that key "tracking and dealing with the bad guys you know about" element isn't working.

Re: Paris attacks/explosions
 

Vladimir Putin seems to have reached this conclusion. Looks like he's now deploying Bears, Backfires and Blackjacks into the Syrian theatre. This is a lot more firepower than the original SU-34s were able to deliver.


S

Re: Paris attacks/explosions
 

Exactly.

He was even stopped at one point but the guy let him through

The Mysterious Life and Death of Abdelhamid Abaaoud, the Suspected Planner of the Paris Attacks - The Atlantic

That guy must feel pretty stupid.

Re: Paris attacks/explosions
 

Yeah. He'll be doing traffic duty for the rest of his career...


S

Re: Paris attacks/explosions
 

It's one of the counterintuitive things about going overboard on the security theatre - there are so many false positives that people stop thinking they will ever find a real bad guy - so they don't. The effectiveness actually goes down, as the intrusiveness goes up.

Think about it, a minimum wage border guard. Say he sees 1 person every 30 seconds. That would be ~1000 people per day. 200,000 people per year. Suppose he stops only 1 in 100 of those people. That's still 2000 per year. And actually finding a terrorist in that lot is going to be less than 1 per year - so, say 1 in 10,000 chance on a 1 in 100 selection.

Is it any wonder they don't catch people? Hell the reviews of the TSA find they fail 95% of the time on tests (and those are going to be more obvious than someone actually trying to hide weapons, let alone someone on a fake passport).

From the point of view of the security theatre at borders, it by design fails most of the time. From the point of view of the terrorist, they have a pretty good chance (better than 1 in 30 probably) of not getting hassled getting weapons through the check, and probably a higher probability of getting themselves through.

As I've said, borders and lines really aren't that useful in this context.

Re: Paris attacks/explosions
 

Exactly. Under a Tory government junior doctors would double as border guards in lieu of sleeping and would be put on a performance related pay system which would instantly turn passports from any middle eastern countries into a voucher for a free NHS rectal exam. [/Lefty socialist view]

Re: Paris attacks/explosions
 

I saw some footage on the news the other night that looked like Backfires dropping normal iron bombs - crude but effective and f**k the collateral!

"Quantity has a quality all of its own" - J Stalin

Re: Paris attacks/explosions
 

"The Pope! How many divisions has he got?"


Also J V Stalin...


S

Re: Paris attacks/explosions
 

Really. You clearly haven't passed through a border recently. You would know the human does very little and the computer does the leg work.

You are talking rubbish now. Words of the inexperienced.

Re: Paris attacks/explosions
 

Are police officers in Belgium actually equipped with the facilities to track this. If not why would the police officer feel stupid?

Border control are and the only border control in Belgium is by air or sea.

Re: Paris attacks/explosions
 

Not even you could say that with a straight face.

Right .... of course ....

Re: Paris attacks/explosions
 

This is what Europe needs on its borders - Computer says no:

Re: Paris attacks/explosions
 

I'm still in tears, one week after the events.

:(

Re: Paris attacks/explosions
 

Here come the walls.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/12008561/Schengen-at-risk-as-France-imposes-indefinite-border-controls.html