The mining tax
#31
Wirelessly posted (SonyEricssonW890i/R1FA Browser/NetFront/3.4 Profile/MIDP-2.1 Configuration/CLDC-1.1)
Ivanm is not alone - the sector laid of 15% of its staff in the first half of '09 - replicated in the wider economy that would equal 19% unemployment - that would be one heck of a recession! Its true that the exports continued to support the gdp numbers - pity they couldnt support jobs as well.
Ivanm is not alone - the sector laid of 15% of its staff in the first half of '09 - replicated in the wider economy that would equal 19% unemployment - that would be one heck of a recession! Its true that the exports continued to support the gdp numbers - pity they couldnt support jobs as well.
#35
Actually am involved on a buisness side as well including planning. I am afraid your labour spin doesnt cut the mustard. It is so simple that if a 3 year old couldnt see the problems i would have him to the docs for tests.
If you take a industry, any industry and tell them their taxes are going through the roof what do you expect to happen?
Ok, lets give an example of the company i work for. We have a very large project that is in the pipeline at present. Like a lot of Oz projects it is extremely risky with fairly small profit margins. If this tax had come in as planned that profit was exinguished and a negative NPV result.
Now, please get your head around risk annaylsis. This isnt just the liklihood of war and things, but includes elements such as a goverment passing legislation that may have a effect positive or negative on a project. It also incorporates a huge amount of other data such as costs, cost increases, labour, labour skill base, energy, water and the list goes on. Ultimatly we look for a number that we can use to help guide investment decisions between competing projects. Now, once a tax is here, their is a risk, that has to be considered, that it will be increased in real terms and its scope increased. That is the redidual risk that we are left with presently.
Most major miners have a series of projects in the pipeline that are competing for funds to reach development - we have 5. All have pluses and negatives. What this tax has done, even now, is substantialy alter the risk weighting that Australia has to be viewed in. For some, that will make little difference, but for many it will be a big factor. We have announced how we see it, and we have been one of the least vocal, but it is likely even now to have a negative impact on the viability of significant investment into Australia. Unfortunatly, it isnt just the mining houses that have this view. I was recently with the rep from a major investment organisation who invests in mining, particularly in Australia. They also have ameded the risk ratio negativly. This makes it harder for companies to raise the capitol needed to develop projects - that is harsh at a time when capitol is still tight, particularly on the $100million plus projects.
Australia has, i believe, forgoten where it stands in the industry and that it is competing on a global basis. It seems to have developed a attitude that it is THE premier destination. Sorry to burst the bubble here, but most commodities are far from that view.
Ah, so you think we make huge profits still. Look, have search for any of the gold or non ferous metal miners and they pretty much all put out all their data on the web and have a look at what we earn. This isnt difficult math. Take the mine i am sat in at present. It was in feasability stage in 1990. The gold price was about $350 an ounce. Now the price at the moment is over $1200. So we should be laughing? Wrong. If gold had tracked inflation then it should be over $2000. In addition, mining costs, particularly in Australia, which has become one of the most beaurucratic places on the planet have increased significantly more than inflation. So please broad shoulders, explain to me how we make "super" profit?
If you take a industry, any industry and tell them their taxes are going through the roof what do you expect to happen?
Ok, lets give an example of the company i work for. We have a very large project that is in the pipeline at present. Like a lot of Oz projects it is extremely risky with fairly small profit margins. If this tax had come in as planned that profit was exinguished and a negative NPV result.
Now, please get your head around risk annaylsis. This isnt just the liklihood of war and things, but includes elements such as a goverment passing legislation that may have a effect positive or negative on a project. It also incorporates a huge amount of other data such as costs, cost increases, labour, labour skill base, energy, water and the list goes on. Ultimatly we look for a number that we can use to help guide investment decisions between competing projects. Now, once a tax is here, their is a risk, that has to be considered, that it will be increased in real terms and its scope increased. That is the redidual risk that we are left with presently.
Most major miners have a series of projects in the pipeline that are competing for funds to reach development - we have 5. All have pluses and negatives. What this tax has done, even now, is substantialy alter the risk weighting that Australia has to be viewed in. For some, that will make little difference, but for many it will be a big factor. We have announced how we see it, and we have been one of the least vocal, but it is likely even now to have a negative impact on the viability of significant investment into Australia. Unfortunatly, it isnt just the mining houses that have this view. I was recently with the rep from a major investment organisation who invests in mining, particularly in Australia. They also have ameded the risk ratio negativly. This makes it harder for companies to raise the capitol needed to develop projects - that is harsh at a time when capitol is still tight, particularly on the $100million plus projects.
Australia has, i believe, forgoten where it stands in the industry and that it is competing on a global basis. It seems to have developed a attitude that it is THE premier destination. Sorry to burst the bubble here, but most commodities are far from that view.
Ah, so you think we make huge profits still. Look, have search for any of the gold or non ferous metal miners and they pretty much all put out all their data on the web and have a look at what we earn. This isnt difficult math. Take the mine i am sat in at present. It was in feasability stage in 1990. The gold price was about $350 an ounce. Now the price at the moment is over $1200. So we should be laughing? Wrong. If gold had tracked inflation then it should be over $2000. In addition, mining costs, particularly in Australia, which has become one of the most beaurucratic places on the planet have increased significantly more than inflation. So please broad shoulders, explain to me how we make "super" profit?
#36
Extraction costs and taxes are only part of the scenario.
Purity of product has a very large say.
For example why does China import vast amounts of coal and bauxite when they have plenty in their back yard?
Because the quality of their local product is poor and at minimum needs sweetening with the high quality imports.
In the case of coal I guess the thermal efficiency of Aus coal is superior and hence cost effective to import rather than mine their own.
In the case of bauxite I think their own has high levels of silica meaning large chemical costs in processing.
Maybe similar is true of iron ore.
They don't import these things without good reason.
#38
It was in feasability stage in 1990. The gold price was about $350 an ounce. Now the price at the moment is over $1200. So we should be laughing? Wrong. If gold had tracked inflation then it should be over $2000. In addition, mining costs, particularly in Australia, which has become one of the most beaurucratic places on the planet have increased significantly more than inflation.
Perhaps part of the reason there is additional inflation in the mining sector is because of super profits! You suggest that many OZ ventures are risky, well those risks must pay off a lot of the time - how else are we supposed to believe the other argument aboutmining swelling the government's coffers and propping up the rest of the economy if returns are as marginal as you suggest.
#39
According to the RBA inflation was 62.7% in the 19 years following 1990. I make your gold price inflation 243% (I assume thats in USD terms) - only 4 times as high.
Perhaps part of the reason there is additional inflation in the mining sector is because of super profits! You suggest that many OZ ventures are risky, well those risks must pay off a lot of the time - how else are we supposed to believe the other argument aboutmining swelling the government's coffers and propping up the rest of the economy if returns are as marginal as you suggest.
Perhaps part of the reason there is additional inflation in the mining sector is because of super profits! You suggest that many OZ ventures are risky, well those risks must pay off a lot of the time - how else are we supposed to believe the other argument aboutmining swelling the government's coffers and propping up the rest of the economy if returns are as marginal as you suggest.

#40
Not if Labor weren't a bunch of spendthrifts. If they spent it wisely I doubt there would be so much outrage but they piss it against the wall like all labor/socialist governments the world over.
#41
True, more loft insulation/school sheds no one wants bullshit. Take from Peter to pay Paul. I bet Hugo Chavez is proud of this Australian government.
#42









Joined: Jun 2006
Posts: 4,555

What I found amusing was when labour made Howard look like a porkbarrelling sprendthrift before the last election.
When keynesian boosts are wasted like the one we had it really pisses me off. I have a boy who will struggle at school without an aid and demountable classrooms are being built for over $800,000. FFS that could pay for two classrooms and a fulltime aid.
Incompetence at administration is not a left right thing. It is a poor governance thing.
When keynesian boosts are wasted like the one we had it really pisses me off. I have a boy who will struggle at school without an aid and demountable classrooms are being built for over $800,000. FFS that could pay for two classrooms and a fulltime aid.
Incompetence at administration is not a left right thing. It is a poor governance thing.
#43









Joined: Jun 2006
Posts: 4,555

A well structured tax will not put off the ventures. Those ventures are essential is finding the resources and encouraging companies to find them. A good tax regime will encourage investment and only tap the "lazy super profits". It is in Australia's interest to know what is down there and to encourage exploration.
"Super profits" is a term used in economics and tend to occur when market forces are not pure or in the case of resources they just happen when the commodities market booms. The level of profits made by banks is a super profit made by a lack of market forces eg the difficulty in changin bank accounts.
Australian resources were profitable prior to the mining boom. The boom saw commodity prices go up 4 times or more. We are close to those boom times again.
"Super profits" is a term used in economics and tend to occur when market forces are not pure or in the case of resources they just happen when the commodities market booms. The level of profits made by banks is a super profit made by a lack of market forces eg the difficulty in changin bank accounts.
Australian resources were profitable prior to the mining boom. The boom saw commodity prices go up 4 times or more. We are close to those boom times again.
According to the RBA inflation was 62.7% in the 19 years following 1990. I make your gold price inflation 243% (I assume thats in USD terms) - only 4 times as high.
Perhaps part of the reason there is additional inflation in the mining sector is because of super profits! You suggest that many OZ ventures are risky, well those risks must pay off a lot of the time - how else are we supposed to believe the other argument aboutmining swelling the government's coffers and propping up the rest of the economy if returns are as marginal as you suggest.
Perhaps part of the reason there is additional inflation in the mining sector is because of super profits! You suggest that many OZ ventures are risky, well those risks must pay off a lot of the time - how else are we supposed to believe the other argument aboutmining swelling the government's coffers and propping up the rest of the economy if returns are as marginal as you suggest.

#44
Forum Regular



Joined: Feb 2010
Posts: 181


read all of these posts with great interest---thanks.Very informative.Far better than the newspapers
#45
I was beside myself when the gov lady called me to tell me he wasn't eligable for funding...When she gave the reply that his speach is far to good I asked her was the Asustralian government making year 12 exams oral now then? Can he talk to his locker and ask it to find his books for the day (they are in there, trust me!) Can he speak to his pen and ask it to write like a 13 YO not a 6 year old? Can he polietly ask his laces to tie themselves, can he become so bloody articulate that he wont get lost for the 10th time that week making him late for class again!! NO it effing cant, can it?!?!
And they want to build a new canteen for the whopping sum of 55 million dollars that isn't needed. OMG.....






