I have a case of buying a house blues. Or more accurately not being able to buy a house blues.
Me and OH have been here just over two years and decided to apply for PR. We started the process of getting paperwork and meds together back in November and we are still at the 'nearly ready to lodge' stage because OH's work seem to be farting around and taking their own sweet time to get stuff together.
My problem is that everyone keeps telling me over and over this is the ideal time to buy a house but until we know we can get PR there really isn't any point. We have just under two years left on our current visa but it seems pointless buying if we can't stay. Plus if we do get PR we should get the first house buyers bonus.
On the other hand if we dont buy soon will the house prices increase dramatically as everyone keeps saying? or is that just estate agents propaganda. Plus it would be awful if we bought a house then got PR a week later and missed out on the bonus
Plus our deposit is not earning much interest in the bank now that the rates have gone down. And it is tempting to spend it although i have resisted so far...
I just have no patience and wish i could have a crystal ball....if anyone else has one please let me know as i would be ever so grateful....

I think the best time to buy will be end of the year or beginning 2010. The inflated first home buyer's grant has just meant that prices stay high until July 2009. Rudd won't be able to afford to keep it going after that and sellers will have to face the reality of the market.

First home buyers and people who are forced to move are the only buyers in the market at the moment. Many investors are currently facing negative equity and are forced to hold on to what they have. Some investors who have cash will enter the market towards the end of the year but they will drive very hard bargains, and first home buyers are likely to be able to compete with them. This situation is very unlikely to change within the next two years. In fact more homes will be forced onto the market as people are forced to sell due to over-extending their resources and losing their jobs.

Having said that, a good reason to buy right now is that you will have somewhere to invest your cash since there's not much point keeping it in he bank. If you buy now I'd recommend buying a run down place and fixing it up or a two bedroomer and upgrading it to three or four.

Totally agree. Read Prof Keen reports on the housing market. The houses are likely to come down quickly just like it happened in the UK when the gov tax relief situation ended (I think around 1987). House prices just seemed to drop over nite once the relief had gone.

Thanks that makes me feel a bit better.
My other worry about buying now as well is what if i fall in love with a house and then have to part with it kicking and screaming!! If we do buy I think we would have to look at an old property to do up anyway as we are not overly rich. But you know what they say about doer- uppers - the only time it is just perfect is 5 minutes before you sell it!!

What area are you looking to buy in ?

Some areas are already less than they were in 2002, and are showing signs of rising ! Others are much higher and are now dropping.

We are in Melbourne and are really looking for something in the suburbs with fairly easy access to rail as my OH will be commuting to the CBD as of middle of 2010.
Currently he is working in Boxhill so probably would have to be eastern side of the city. All seems to be pretty expensive (although still cheaper than Aberdeen in the Uk when we left).

Taking Boxhill as an example...
Boxhill is in the inner east area, and although houses in Boxhill have risen, there has been a 7% drop in the general inner east area.

The long term trend for Boxhill has been 11.2% per year for the last 10 years.

One suburb in NSW, that I am watching, where they have dropped to 2002 prices, has a 10 year average of only 7.4% pa.

Comparing figures in that way, "may" give an idea of what "might" happen in the future.

As an idea of those 10 year averages:
$100,000 at 7.4% pa would be worth $204,194 after 10 years
$100,000 at 11.2% pa would be worth $289,100 after 10 years

You can see which areas have gone up faster than others, and 'maybe' determine what areas have yet to drop, or catch up ?

A crystal ball would be good though

Source

Box Hill has always been one of those areas that people buy in do not know if its because is a dry suburb no pubs, like Balwyn. It used to be cheaper so people bought into the suburb as the older people moved on and they seem to stay there as its a good area to live for everything.

I think newer estates are going to see a lot of pain, for a start if the house is less than five years old they are competing with the builders who can offer deals which are attractive.

Frankston is a suburb I would look myself if I was buying, probably too far from Box Hill though but it has a lot of houses about 25 -30 years old with ensuites and large land and in good areas which are presently investments but as the investors who are over committed leave the markets these are the houses worth renovating. They have the right number of rooms established tree lined streets and all the facilities such as shopping, hospital, schools university nearby.

I know everyone likes a new house but they are always in areas that lack services.

When you are looking at new land from 180,00 for a postage stamp upwards to $250 to $300 for a decent sized block then a house that needs updating in an established area for about $280 - 300 is not bad.

I'm pretty sure we wouldn't want to live in Boxhill itself - as you said no pubs (and i like a drinkie - on a totally unrelated note i see Scotland has been given the dubious honour by the WHO of being in the top ten highest alcohol consumers per capita. Who would have thought it!!).
I would also prefer something a little more multi-cultural. Box-hill seems to be predominantly one ethnic background (asian) and I would prefer a more balanced community with a bit of everything, if that makes sense. (please note I don't want to spark a racial debate i just think it would be nice to not be the one and only european in the community)
I think new houses are out because there doesnt seem to be any real profit- making potential in them and i haven't see one yet that i have thought is perfect. i am always mentally thinking well we could just move this and move that...

I totally agree with you about diversity in the suburb

Maybe that is why my oh likes a drinkie I too like one as well. Got to die of something.

You find that anywhere there are good private or public schools the will move to that area.

I got my hand slapped once for telling people which suburbs are sought after by different ethnic groups but its true we all choose suburbs we feel comfortable in.

In my work over the years I noticed that Endeavour Hills became a suburb that the Indian community liked as well as Keysborough. Hampton Park, South Dandenong Lyndhurst a lot of middle eastern people moved there because the mosque is in South Dandenong. Italian people like Keilor although they are everywhere now much dispersed like the Greek people.

Brits tend to go to Mornington Peninsula, Frankston, Knox, Berwick or over to the west as well now that it has opened up.

As the suburbs like North Dandenong and Endeavour Hills change the people have moved out to Berwick and Narre Warren.

The closer in to the city the more ethnic diversity I think.

I live in a small street on acreage and my neighbour one side is Filipino married to Aus the other side are both Aus, over the back fence is an Aus lady married to an Irish chap. Up the road is a Filipino married to an Austrian chap. We are English/Scottish. So if you take the averages most streets here in Aus would have migrants of some ethnicity in them.

Acreage?

What part of Scotland is he from then?

We were looking at areas like Ferntree gully, Upwey and Ringwood east. We are currently renting in Templestowe lower - the house is nice enough but really cold in the winter as it has ancient rattly old windows and really rubbish heating vents. Incredibly I now find I cannot handle the cold as well as I could only two years ago and now think anything below 15 is practically arctic conditions! My friend from NE scotland told me it was minus 18 the other day where she is...

You should move up to QLD. It feels like it's freezing up here at about 20 degrees !!

I don't think it's wise to base predictions on the next ten years on the performance of the last ten years. Take it under advisement yes, but be very careful. Economic conditions outside the housing market are going to be very different and will impact the housing market in ways that have no correlation to anything that happened in the last ten years.

I have been trying to persuade my OH's company that this would be a good idea but they are having none of it. Rotten spoilsports.
Been up there a few times when funds would allow it and loved it. But still cannot complain - Melbourne has its good points too.