the troubadour

The world is certainly interconnected. The impacts of excessive globalization brought out some of the negatives about it.
China is pouring big money into Guinea in West Africa developing their mines, which have great potential. I believe it will be five years until Guinea potential is released.
That will ease the need for Australian ore. Certainly in volume. That's providing all goes to plan.

Beoz

I guess that depends on with China's appetite increases or decreases. Any increases, even at a lowly 7% by China's standard, will still be good for WA. Guinea to share the spoils.

Amazulu

So is Australia via Rio Tinto. The IR in Guinea is very high quality (the last untapped deposit in the World) and is not intended as a replacement for the 62% Pilbara blend that comes out of Australia. There will be a price premium on the Guinea IR

Guinea is highly unstable and corrupt and the development costs for any mines there are enormous as most infrastructure is non-existent. Nothing is guaranteed in that part of the World!

the troubadour

Guinea is being 'developed' to suit Chinese needs. Nothing is guaranteed in many parts of the world. Chinese influence and money will be ample to influence outcomes from corrupt politicians in that country.
I think you will find the untangling of the Australian emphasis on China, is something that will not be short-term but over over the coming years will impact Australia very severely.
I was never in favour of the situation arrived at over previous couple of decades, but we are where we are. Anyone that considers a break down in economic ties with China is not going to incur the greatest economic hit
to Australia, since the depression, is an optimist of the tooth ferry kind. WA will be at the crux . I hope that's considered a fair enough price to pay for supporting Trump's election, Doubtful if America will even recognize
Australia's sacrifice but there you go.

the troubadour

I think you under estimate the decoupling of economic ties will impact Australia. Actually the real possibility is a fall in demand from China anywhere. In all likelihood it will not be able to maintain any where close to the
development over past decades, not forgetting the rapture in ore imports a few years back that saw prices fall.

The reason for that, most likely will come from America. The spike in economic relations will ensure far fewer US$s , which are essential for China's continued growth. Australia may well join another 'Coalition of the willing'
to placate Trump, but will be caught in the cross winds of the repercussions that will follow.

Australia, as is constantly pointed out, is the most exposed country in the world to a Chinese downturn, either enforced or situational. WA will be even more severely impacted.

Beoz

You might be forgetting the CCP will be throwing everything at growth, which has seen a hit, unemployment increases due to COVID, and itself being on the nose with the rest of the world. Governments have few levers for this. One they do have is investment in infrastructure which slowed in recent times with the attempt to move to more a consumer based economy. China will be throwing everything at new projects which means the appetite for iron ore will increase greatly.

So while the rest of the world might be looking elsewhere for the consumerables, China itself will be showing a massive renewed appetite for iron moving forward.

The world needs a buying China - no doubt about that, but the world also needs to keep its eyes on China. Where China could previously operate largely under the radar, COVID has brought it unwanted attention.

The Hong Kong power play will be watched by all with interest not seen before COVID.

the troubadour

Again. Simply put. If China hasn't the US $ it will simply be unable to maintain excess rate of development. The world will need to adapt to a new reality. It may all blow over once the idiot Trump loses the election in November.
He needs an international focus to take American minds of the gigantic mess he's made of his own country Somewhat dangerous times until then. No need for Australia to throw away its future .

Hong Kong power play? Pretty clear that China is in control and that the HK administration will be playing hard ball with future dissent. Do you really think 16 to 24 year old students are going to influence anything? You may as well
say BLM in America will bring down the Trump regime. In fact more chance of the latter happening, if not directly.

Beoz

And again, China will again invest heavily in infrastructure projects with less focus on its more recent consumer focus. That's how every country gets employment going to get the bottom line looking better. They don't need the $$$$ from the US to do this. They have an endless tap of $$$$ like every other country.

the troubadour

Actually China does not have endless $ US to do anything of the sort. Obviously they have reserves totaling a few trillion but would be reluctant to dig into that for obvious reasons. The US has the ability to make life rather difficult in accessing dollars which in turn complicates how they pay their US $ dominated debt. In China's case it would see a reduction in development which over recent decades has been at break neck speed. Somewhat different from many western countries that has experienced austerity in government spending or cutbacks at best.
The reliance being on private enterprise to create the economy. China's system very different being centrally controlled already.