Drought
 

Apparently this drought is now the worst one since my time here in Australia. There was a bad one back in 83, I'd been here 3 years then. It was very noticeable at the time, with big cracks in garden beds, Dust everywhere, and very cheap meat prices. The Cheap Lamb and Beef coming as Farmers and producers offloaded their stock as they couldn't afford to feed them. The farmers have also been offloading their stock this year, but it hasn't been reflected in the prices for some reason.

For the first time I can recall, wheat will probably have to be imported into Aussie next year, as there will be a 42pct drop in production.

Ballarat here in Victoria is in a bad way, with only 13pct water reserve and on current stage 4 restrictions could well run out of water in less than 9 months.

With two interest rate rises on the horizon and fresh food prices set to sky rocket, is anyone else concerned. ?

It's weird but it all seemed far more serious back in 83 yet on paper and looking at the whole situation this drought should be treated as far worse.

Wonder why it isn't ?

Re: Drought
 

Cant comment or compare at all to the 83 drought, however we saw areas in drought 5 years ago, so yes current drought really concerns me, as those areas and more are still in drought. Plus the government seems to think billion dollar band aids are the solution, they dont seem that willing to accept the fact climate change may make many of those areas unsuitable for stock or farming in our time anyway.

Food, did you know it went up 9.9% this QUARTER, what sort of increases are we to expect once the drought hits then.

Farmers are selling sheep around 50c each, yet meat is nearly 3 times the price it was when we arrived in year 2000.

Water, we are lucky no restrictions, water levels in other places are as you say 13% and below

Interest rates, if we get one more now and agan in february that is seven in two years. It is already affecting the housing market, god only knows why australia is still importing housing related tradesmen.

All of these things will affect the economy, and our pockets. We are watching the currency daily, we like many converted with great glee :rolleyes: into aussie dollars, if the arse falls out of the economy and dollar we would be stuffed.

Another thing concerns me too, the entire nation is encouraged to provide for retirement via superannuation, thats all whoo hoo at the moment too, what happens exactly if the share market crashes, markets dont just rise do they.

Never mind we still have the beach, well unless a flippin cyclone hits :D

Re: Drought
 

What really gets me about this one, as opposed to the 83. Is in 83 the papers were full of it, the TV programs were having in depth reviews almost nightly. Yet this is supposedly the most serious one ever.

Either it is or it isn't and if it is, why is it being played down. ?

I'm going to find some old codgers and find out what they reckon.

Re: Drought
 

Our old codger neighbour, ex grazier sold about 2 zillion acres as they do, but did it 3 years ago, he claims if he did it now he wouldnt have been able to sell it, its basically worthless now.

You know why its not taken as that serious, how many people have seen any drought land ?? Were discussing this on here, but how many people here are even aware what the wheat belts and stock properties look like, I bet very very few. Many poeple think no rain is good, define it as great weather :eek: umm little trip out west needed perhaps.

Now food has started to rise to such an extent people cant help but notice it there is a bit of media, it seems it only concerns people if it affects their pocket.

I reckon most city folk, aussies included need a bit of a tour out west and a bit of a ponder on where the next lot of meat and wheat is going to come from :scared:

Australias got about 21 m population, only a tiny portion of that live more than 2 hours from the few major cities. Probably a bit harsh but do 20 million mr and mrs legolands awating arrival of their new plasma TV really care whats happening to the few on the land? Any concern seems to be more "can I fill my swimming pool" rather than a deep understanding of what this will do to the economy.

Re: Drought
 

Bloody hell, Jad, bet I can jump ship before you can.

To answer your questions wait and see (!) :D :o :rolleyes:

The thing about super, and just about every other money spinner in the Western world is that it's all geared to how long you are in the market for. The market has been going up and down for years. That's why my advisor bod (in the UK) told me to get in at 25 not 30 though I was wise to have got in at 20. If super doesn't do it, nothing will, and the whole bloody western world will be scratching their heads as they are at the moment about aging populations.

Living near a town with bush and drought experience I will ask. But you know how the old fogies like to yarn.

Re: Drought
 

Supers another deep discussion we could do :D Thing is when most people retire they need the money, I mean if I retire at 65 and the share markets in some sort of bear cycle, will I want to go never mind just keep working till I am 83 :D

Probably not.

Re: Drought
 

Who knows. Maybe you can even borrow against a perceived value. People will be having to deal with this sort of thing as the world changes.

Alot of people are choosing to work longer already - it all depends.
And relying on the state as some people are doing is also a non starter - which we're being told now not to /or is not provided for (in aus).

I would have thought that super will outperform any national scheme - where it still exists. Can an expert tell me why a lot of people were told to contract out of SERPS - is it for tax reasons or just that SERPS won't cut it in the long run and if you can afford a private pension there's no point in relying on the state.

Re: Drought
 

Yes please do Badge, Because It's either worse than 83 or it Isn't. Maybe 83 affected Victoria worse. BTW I clearly remember at that time, that within two weeks, the price of a side of lamb dropped about 60 - 70 pct... No kidding. One week is was about 24 bucks, next it was 10.


As for super, if thats stuffed, then it will be stuffed right around the world, and we will all be ...... errrrm.... fecked.... lol ;)

Re: Drought
 

Heard that before. Careful, you'll turn this into a non Aus vs Aus debate. Got to be a bit more cautious me old boy.

Re: Drought
 

My super is 40 pct on International shares, well the part I rolled over from the gas and fuel. I see it totally as a world thing.

Seem my edit in my previous post re Lamb prices back in 83.

Re: Drought
 

This droughts about to go into its what 6th or seventh summer, was the 83 drought the end of several years of drough or a shorter one? Was so much of the country in drought as well or just VIC this one is covering most of the country.

Were at the end of winter too, take brisbane, not got hot at all yet, no humidity nothing, very mild, but summers not long off, as soon as that happens most states will get more concerned.

Re: Drought
 

In 2006 sheep at sales have dropped from $60 to 50C, yet meats costing us more :rolleyes: Plain profitering the only person making a loss is the farmer.

Re: Drought
 

But surely that hasn't changed - the population has always been on the coast and I would have thought people back in the early 80's might have been slightly less aware of conditions on the stations because the TV's companies couldn't show it so easily - lack of satellites etc.

I obviously have no idea about the 83 drought and to be honest only know what I see on the news now. We are about to go to level 4 restrictions but it is vibrantly green around here and our dam is as near full as it can be. This particular area has had a fair amount of rain in the year I've been here - short of spending a few weeks driving around inland, I can't possibly imagine how bad it is in some areas and the TV wouldn't be able to do it justice.

Re: Drought
 

Re: Drought
 

For once this is a well discussed and balanced thread. And an interest to read!

I live in South Australia - to be exact 40 k outside of Keith which has really suffered. I do see, on a daily basis, what drought striken land looks like, and cattle and sheep. It's awful. The other thing people may not notice either is the effect on soil ... ours is pure sand in many of the paddocks and it's just blowing away! (great exfoliation! :rolleyes: ) We do our best to help minimise the damage but it's very difficult.

We're lucky in that we have access to bore water so unlike some we can irrigate some areas, but on the large scale we're talking it seems soooo small! However we're still having to supplimentry feed cattle as there's simply no grazing left, which adds equipment costs, buying in feed, extra man power and fuel costs too. We've had to move some 900 calves out of area to be grazed which again adds massive costs.

In answer to prices in supermarkets though ... processing meat takes man power, fuel and water - these costs haven't dropped they've increased. We've got two big meat processing businesses locally and they're struggling too. And sadly at the end of the day whether its Tescos or Woolworths they don't always pass on the difference to the consumer!

Of the 6 families on this station there's only two who have any rainwater left in their tanks - we're one of them and I'm thankful for that but concious that it's not going to last for more than 6 weeks really and we use bore water for all that we can so I'm praying for rain for soooo many reasons! :(

On the positive I think this country is beautiful and I've only seen such a small amount of it so far, I look forward to a wet spring when ALL the flowers and native trees can really show themselves - the jacaranda and bottle brushes are still amazing anyway!

Re: Drought
 

We've only been here 10mths and we're concerned about the drought, we're having a house built so we've rquested that our landlord installs water saving devices but it's fallen on deaf ears :-(

We do our bit, no running taps whilst teeth cleaning, short showers etc, etc.

In our new home we're planning on installing as many water saving devices as possible as well as a water tank for when it does eventually rain to collect the run off.

Keebs

Re: Drought
 

From http://www.cultureandrecreation.gov....uraldisasters/

There has been two major droughts in the last twenty years

In 1982-83, large areas of central and eastern - particularly south-eastern - Australia experienced unprecedented low rainfall levels. This was the culmination of the four-year drought that had begun in 1979.

The effects of this drought laid the groundwork for the catastrophic 1983 ‘Ash Wednesday’ bushfires across Victoria and South Australia.

A second drought, which ran between 1991 and 1995 in north-eastern NSW and much of Queensland, was the result of the lowest rainfall levels on record.

Re: Drought
 

You are damn right the butchers are profiteering like crazy.

I sold six steers in November 2005 for $800 a head with an average weight of 360 kilos each. On Wednesday I sold 3 steers for between $300 and $320 each at weights of 300 to 340 kg.

My average price was 217 cents a kilo live weight last year and 100 cents a kilo this week.

OK so that's live weight and roughly half goes to waste, but our local butcher in SA is ripping everyone off at $18.99 per kilo for steak.

Everyone should refuse to pay for beef at that price.

Re: Drought
 

With regards to super - most super companies would run a balanced portfolio so a drop in the share market would be offset by gains elsewhere (probably cash and bonds).

With regards to SERPS. Most people were advised to contract out because the government were offering a bribe (to offload the burden from them). For me personally I was better off contracting out anyway and I'm better off with super. At best I (through my employer's contributions) was paying at least 3 times too much for the state pension.

As for water saving. I've started looking into getting a water audit done. These apparently cost about $70 after the government rebate (VIC). I think I can make big savings by using grey water recycling.

:)

Re: Drought
 

Here is a pretty comprehansive description of the various stages of water restriction..

http://www.nerwa.vic.gov.au/water/re...ions/index.htm

Re: Drought
 

Ballarat for the people that dont know, is Victoria 3rd or 4th biggest town, depending on whether Bendigo is bigger or not.

A lot of people in Ballarat are for want of a better term, tree hugging earth lovers. They conserve water as a matter of course and have been doing so for years. They are already on Stage 4 restrictions, infact even at stage 4 restrictions they will run out of water in 9 months time. The powers that be are now inventing new restrictions. Things like not using Dishwashers, and not washing cars at all.

I personally think that water shortages in this country and now so severe, that it is the greatest threat to our everyday lives.

I'm not sure what the answer is, and I cannot for the life of me figure out why people are not talking about this subject more.

Maybe the politicians are waiting until they get re-elected before the dung hits the turbine.

So a question for those that think water conservation is the way to go... What happened in Ballarat ?

Re: Drought
 

Have a look at super fund returns early 2000's many made negative returns, after fees and inflation they made even more negative returns. Aus has had runaway share market last 2 years most funds hype reflects those years, not the "dont panic" letters that accompanied the super returns statements in the early 2000's.

Re: Drought
 

Perhaps it is time to put a ban on back yard swimming pools. For those who live near the coast, the beach is the answer and for those who live inland, most will have a municipal pool within a short walk or drive. It takes a massive amount of water to fill an average family pool and there are an awful lot of them around, with more large water-guzzling holes being dug by the day. The water would be better used on a backyard veggie patch.

Re: Drought
 

I agree Ozzie.

I'm flabbergasted we got our pool passed by the council given the problem is so bad. I feel guilty now :o

I didn't realise how bad things were and can't understand why they continue to let people build pools:confused:

I'm looking into having a slimline watertank fitted to at least water the plants:o

Re: Drought
 

What level restrictions are you on now ?

We've had permanent level 1 for some time now ( a year roughly) ..which haven't really done a lot due to the dry winter/spring...this time last year the water storage was over 60 %, but this year it is 40.3% - and so we are going to Level 2 next week.

Re: Drought
 

Perhaps if the water is collected via rainwater the pools in a way help the environment. Give the case of a fire the water can be used via the pool pumps?
(Yes I watched Jerico last week :D )

Re: Drought
 

Not 100% sure as I leave all the pool and garden stuff to David :o .....but I think it's level 4:eek:

Someone at work mentioned the other day that anyone with a pool here now has to have two other water saving devices of some sort e.g duel flush toilet, pool cover, water tank, water efficient washing machine etc, etc

I've always been conscious of not using too much water but we need to do more.

Like Ozzie said, it makes you wonder why it's not highlighted more given the severity? :confused:

I've noticed federal government blames state government and vice versa. It's got to be a political agenda:rolleyes:

Re: Drought
 

LOL....good answer.

Doesn't make me feel any less selfish for getting a pool put in though mate:o

Re: Drought
 

A mate told me that having a pool and a well designed house dramatically reduces the need for AC.

You pay taxes so be alittle selfish - where encouraging the neighbours to build one for purely selfish requirements :D

Re: Drought
 

LOL....it's funny how popular you become when you get a pool:D

Oh dear...we've got air con aswel...maybe we need to be more green:eek:

Re: Drought
 

Sounds like the "don't panic" letters were good advice. ;)

Any financial adviser worth their salt would not recommend this type of investment for anything less than 5 years.

:)

Re: Drought
 

Exactly.

And government employees will have protected super - as I did when I worked for Australia Post. :)

Re: Drought
 

I think the trick with Air Con is to use is sparingly - ie so you can sleep or take the edge off.

Re: Drought
 

Or have suitably designed houses that are designed to be cool, have breezes etc. When I did my Town Planning degree, we went to a place in north Melbourne (cant remember which suburb - maybe Fitzroy) that had an eco home that was designed to be naturally cool in summer and warm in winter - it was really incredible actually.

My parents have essentially had drought conditions since I've been in the UK - 9 years...... rainfall way, way below the usual. They live on the edge of what was my grandparents' farm......no-one is really farming properly where they are now, just a few hobby farmers. It's very sad.

I think that all homes should have rainwater collecting systems for flushing the loo and washing machines. www.adethebuilder.co.uk is a self build diary where I first came across this.

Re: Drought
 

Hmm. The direction that the economy seems to be heading in is something that has been concerning me. I'm not in a position to buy a house yet, and I was toying with the idea of sending my money back to the UK, until I'm sure I am going to stay here.

Growth definitely seems to be slowing here, and the drough will probably only compound that. I know I may lose a couple of £k, but that may be better in the long run. On the other hand, invested monies here do so well with nice high interest rates...

Decisions decisions...

S

Re: Drought
 

Totally agree with the comment about 'billion dollar band aids'. When it was announced that the farmers were getting more subsidies none of the politicians seemed at all embarrassed that they'd failed to act on scientific advice and have failed to provide a long term solution.

My point is not about whether the farmers get subsidies or not, but about the lack of long term planning. How many more years will millions of dollars be handed out without investment to address the underlying problem?

If neccessity is the mother of all invention Australia should be leading the world in water provision measures (and in the use of solar power too for that matter)

I'm not even talking about the desalination plants (like I believe they have in Israel), just basic measures such as enforcing that new build homes are fitted with water recyling units and maybe even water tanks too.

Doesn't take a genius. Some of measures necessary will cost a fortune to research and develop, but Mr Costello is sitting smugly on billions of dollars of budget surplus. What better way to spend it than on securing basic needs for the future.

I'll get of me soap box now... it just really winds me up (yer probably guessed though right? :) )

Re: Drought
 

I'm not 100% sure about this but I thought new builds in Victoria had to have either a rainwater tank or solar heated water.

:)

Re: Drought
 

Every now and then we have a bored moment and go for a wander around the show home estates. It still amazes me that none of the houses ever have a water tank attached to them. It's just plain wrong :mad: We are getting a tank put in, so it definitely won't rain for ages after we've got it, but having been on level 3 for a while and now going to level 4 on Wednesday - all builders should have to put in tanks.

Re: Drought
 

I agree, but there seems to be something of a paranoia here about using rain water and grey water, even for menial stuff like washing the car or watering the plants.

I can't get my head around this thinking personally.

S

Re: Drought
 

so you got your tank sorted, exciting stuff