Re: Petrol --- How much?
 

Current price of unleaded in Melbourne equates to 57.1 pence per litre, so it's closing fast on the UK 89.9p a litre, isn't it?

Re: Petrol --- How much?
 

that's a straight exchange rate swap, but if you go with a 'wage comparison' conversion, i reckon it'd be more like 75p/litre

Re: Petrol --- How much?
 

If any of you are interested in the subject beyond the short term price look up "Hubbert's Peak" on the net.

Hubbert was a petrochemical engineer who calculated that you can work out when half the oil in a particular oil field is exhausted (it's a effectively a Gaussian distribution curve).

In the early 1950s he calculated the peak point on his curve for the USA total oil fields. He predicted the early 1970s, and was ridiculed in the community for this prediction.

The thing is you can only really confirm this prediction in retrospect, the only was to tell is to plot the curve of oil recovery. Although a good way to tell is that prior to extracting half the oil, the cost tends to decrease every year, and after half is gone, the cost will increase.

In actual fact 1972 was when America passed it's peak oil point.
(Note the oil crises in the 70's was completely unrelated to this)

The peak oil point only lets you know when prices are really going to begin to increase.

Researchers around the world have used Hubbert's method to predict the peak point for the entire earth, and the best estimate is sometime between 2000 and 2010.

Many indications point to 2004 being the peak point.

This means that half the oil in the world has gone, and it basically took 100 years for mankind to use it all up.

Note: the current high price is unrelated to the peak oil phenomena and is really down to high demand from China & India.

When the effect of peak oil really begins to kick in (probably in about 4 years time), prices will begin to radically increase.

Note: it's not just petrol prices. The biggest effect will be on food, since the human population is only maintained by phosphate fertilisers, which are heavily reliant on petrochemicals for their manufacture.

Personally I would think we would be looking at $10-15 a litre within 5 years, but that's a guess, from reading around the subject.

Re: Petrol --- How much?
 

Very interesting. I still think Australia ought to start growing masses of canola to fuel the cars here (well, the diesel ones)

Re: Petrol --- How much?
 

Biodiesels are a great idea, until you realise that they require nitro-phosphate fertilisers to grow. And these fertilisers require.... oil!

My guess regarding future prices is my own wild-pessimistic one, please don't let my scare mongering put you off the subject, it's fascinating...

Re: Petrol --- How much?
 

Right, what about organic Canola?

Re: Petrol --- How much?
 

I am no expert on crop cycle's or organic farming methods but I would of thought that an organic crop would be pretty expensive and the yield would be low compared to the fertilised crop. Another thing would be sustainability, how long could you plant on one area before the need to move on because all the natural nutrients are gone from the soil?

A very interesting take on the problem though, it has got me thinking.

Re: Petrol --- How much?
 

I read something on BBC website about an oil well in Texas that was producing 20k barrels a day for 20 years, it dropped down to 2k barrels a day for a few years & then suddenly increased to 24k barrels a day which it has been doing for several years. Experts don't know where this oil is coming from. A friend of mine works for an oil exploration company & he says that there is sh*t loads of oil left & they are finding more. Main problem is that some of this is harder to get to & that refining capacity is limited & with this increased demand is putting this under strain causing these price spikes.

Re: Petrol --- How much?
 

Some interesting analyis. One thing that people never mention - apart from me (!) lol is that you tend to manage better economy in Australia - I can drive at 70, 80, or 100 just about everywhere I need to go, save rush hour. My diesal ute gets 750kilometers a tank.

80-100k is significantly more economical than driving at 120+ like in the UK or in traffic. ALso the cars with the bigger engines last longer but Iwont be buying any more even so.


Badge

Re: Petrol --- How much?
 

You could use natural fertilizer like guano, manure or even part treated sewage - "night soil" as it is known in Egypt.

Re: Petrol --- How much?
 

Received this email today, has anyone else heard of this? Sounds like a good idea if everyone participates
P.S I didn't type it, so don't shout at me for the caps!

Subject: FW: 22 Sept. No petrol day


IT HAS BEEN CALCULATED THAT IF EVERYONE IN AUSTRALIA
DID NOT PURCHASE A DROP OF PETROL FOR ONE DAY AND ALL AT
THE SAME TIME, THE OIL COMPANIES WOULD CHOKE ON THEIR
STOCKPILES.
AT THE SAME TIME IT WOULD HIT THE ENTIRE INDUSTRY WITH A NET
LOSS OVER 4.6 BILLION DOLLARS WHICH AFFECTS THE BOTTOM LINES OF THE
OIL COMPANIES.
THEREFORE THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 22nd HAS BEEN FORMALLY DECLARED "STICK
IT UP THEIR ASSS" DAY AND THE PEOPLE OF THIS NATION SHOULD NOT
BUY A SINGLE DROP OF PETROL THAT DAY.
THE ONLY WAY THIS CAN BE DONE IS IF YOU FORWARD THIS E-MAIL
TO AS MANY PEOPLE AS YOU CAN AND AS QUICKLY AS YOU CAN TO GET THE WORD
OUT.
WAITING ON THE GOVERNMENT TO STEP IN AND CONTROL THE PRICES
IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN. WHAT HAPPENED TO THE REDUCTION AND CONTROL
IN PRICES THAT THE ARAB NATIONS PROMISED TWO WEEKS AGO?
REMEMBER ONE THING, NOT ONLY IS THE PRICE OF PETROL GOING
UP BUT AT THE SAME TIME AIRLINES ARE FORCED TO RAISE THEIR PRICES,
TRUCKING COMPANIES ARE FORCED TO RAISE THEIR PRICES WHICH EFFECTS
PRICES ON EVERYTHING THAT IS SHIPPED. THINGS LIKE FOOD, CLOTHING,
BUILDING SUPPLIES MEDICAL SUPPLIES ETC. WHO PAYS IN THE END? WE
DO!
WE CAN MAKE A DIFFERENCE. IF THEY DON'T GET THE MESSAGE
AFTER ONE DAY, WE WILL DO IT AGAIN AND AGAIN.
SO DO YOUR PART AND SPREAD THE WORD. FORWARD THIS EMAIL TO
EVERYONE YOU KNOW. MARK YOUR CALENDARS AND MAKE SEPTEMBER 22nd A DAY
THAT THE CITIZENS OF AUSTRALIA "ENOUGH IS ENOUGH"

Re: Petrol --- How much?
 

Maybe not, if enough groundwork is put in, there is one highly effective and proven substitute for Nitro-phospate. It's organic .... Wormcastings, and everything associated with them.

Re: Petrol --- How much?
 

Amazulu,

You're friend in the industry is right - there's loads of oil left. That's what peak oil tells you. When you reach it it means that you've only used up half the oil. The downside is that once you pass the peak point it gets harder to get to and the price will begin to rise exponentially.

By the way - I have heard about the oil field you mention. I thought it was in the gulf of Mexico. There isn't an explanation for it I've heard of as yet, although an 'abiotic' oil theory is being postulated - that oil isn't produced by fossil flora & fauna, and is produced through some purely geological mechanism.

Sounds like tosh to me, and there's a lot of money riding on keeping the populations of the world docile.

Re: Petrol --- How much?
 

Then there is Oil Shale ;)

The 2001 survey of energy resources by the World Energy Council reported that Jordan, Australia and Morocco have the largest deposits of 'proved oil shale in place'. The same survey also reported that production of oil from shale for 1999 was recorded in Brazil at 239 million litres and Estonia at 185 million litres.

URL ...

http://www.australianminesatlas.gov....#World_Ranking

Becomes viable at circa 3.50 per litre..

So I doubt if we will see 10/15 dollars per litre, and Australia, may become a major player in future oil supply.

Re: Petrol --- How much?
 

Looks like we found an answer to the question of "How Much?".

A level out in petrol price at $3.50/litre.

You live & learn...