NKSK version 2

For those of you despairing at the thought of Perth house prices increasing indefinitely, there are a few reports starting to appear saying that we are seeing the beginning of the end.

Of course the Real Estate agents will always say that talk of the market cooling is premature ("Jump in quick! It won't be on the market for long!"), the following is one article which I'm holding on to....

[I]BIS Shrapnel expects Brisbane to record 4 per cent per annum growth in house values between 2006/07 and 2008/09, due to a shortage in supply.

After a period of extraordinary growth, the Brisbane market has hit an affordability barrier and is expected to suffer from the worst affordability crisis since 1990.

Perth and Darwin were the only capital cities to experience strong price rises in the 2005 calendar year with Perth continuing to benefit from the resources boom.

However, Perth's house price growth is expected to slow to 3 per cent in 2006-07. Mr Mellor said the Perth price growth rates were not sustainable and would eventually fall in line with the rest of the nation.[/I]

There was another article in the West Australian today saying something along the lines that the number of new houses being sold has declined by 12% on this time last year.

Have to say that I'd be quite pleased to see those speculators who have greedily chased the market upwards beyond the reach of ordinary families become unstuck with their debt.

thebears

We have been watching a particular property in our area since we arrived. The agent was going on how it would be snapped up because of its potential. This is back in late April it is still on the market - now with another agent with price A$25K lower. It also turned out talking with our buyers agent that the property has been on the market since Feb.

And a rental on our street was dropped from $560 per week to $400 unlet for 6 weeks (that we know of).

Kiwi

NKSK version 2

I was about to say "Bring it on!" but then saw that you are in Melbourne.

thebears

Lets wait and see mate

Swotsmart

This is music to my ears I hope it does begin to cool. Quite frankly, at the rate things were going, the market was heading head-on for a big bust. As I understand it, average wages in Aussie land is A$50k to A$60k p/a...a great number of folk will simply never get on the property ladder at current market prices.

Long may the slow down last

wavy_davy

The "experts" said the uk was going to be in recession by 2004 and that the housing market was going to drop into the abyss just like it did in the early 90s, neither happened. The number of new houses purchased has declined because the government has stemmed the flow of land release to a trickle as WA can't keep up with the supply of builders and tradies etc. Whilst there is still a demand the prices will keep on going up, people at Atwell were camped out for 7 days last week to get a plot, 300 people turned up at the rivergums in Baldivis 3 weeks ago to buy 29 plots which sold in 40 mins at very inflated prices. As I've said before the boom is being driven by externally strong currencies (£ etc) and whilst the expats and other immigrants are pouring their money into WA how is it going to end? Putting up interest rates is not going to discourage immigrants, it'll just weaken the $ and they'll get even more for their money. I can't see this boom ending until house prices come into line with the east coast and or the uk as external investors will see scant point in jumping in...................but hey this is just my opinion and you're right, it will end........one day. I'd put my money on 5 years instead of 1.........

Amazulu

I reckon you've got it about right. A 12% fall in new housing starts is nothing. Builders have up to 2 year waiting lists at the moment. Resources boom is still strong & I reckon has at least another 3 years to run. WA has the strongest economy in Australia & is carrying the east coast (hence the recent interest rate rise). More money will be coming into the economy when tax cuts come in next week. I reckon these recent reports are a blip. I want the market to keep on rising & rising. To put it on perspective AUD400k is only GBP160.

Bring it on.

TraceyW

Agree with this. The car park and gardens of our local sales office (Carramar) were full of tents a couple of weeks ago. Those 'camp-out folks' were trying to grab blocks of land that have increased ridiculously in price over the last 12 months.

CadburysFingers

Official figures show there are slightly over 1000 new people arriving in WA every week, they all need accommodation! House prices are driven by supply and demand, as long as the demand is there the prices will be achieved. If there were 1000 people leaving WA each week this situation would be reversed I am sure. One of my better friends is a real estate agent, he has sold the same property twice in the last 12 months, the first time for 670k the second time for 790k That should tell you all you need to know. The same agent also valued a property in Trigg several weeks ago, his valuation was 790, the person selling it felt they could achieve more and sold it privately with her own board (in one day) for 920! These are two random examples, and are obviously ones I have been told about because of the margins involved, I am sure other houses havent increased at the same rate, but many have.

Clippy

When we were in Perth recently, my parents in law did the Perth tour bus thing - during the tour they were informed that Perth has 8000 migrants a month arriving at the moment. I'm not sure how true this is, but that has to have a huge effect on the house prices.

temptininnit

We are in the process of applying for a visa, we are watching the situation closely.

I get a google search email delivered daily with australia property as the subject. Lots of "experts" have an opinion on the market, they all disagree. In short nobody knows!

Dorothy

When we started the visa process in October of '05, Perth was very affordable. That's one of the reasons we decided on it. Now, however, we have pretty much decided that we could not afford to buy the house we want there and are looking into Adelaide instead. I know, I know, different states, different economies, etc. But, we will only have about A$35000 for a downpayment on whatever we buy and don't want to end up house poor. If we could see a decrease in prices before we go over in August, then it will defo be Perth for me.

Lewis Lapthorn

A report I read in this month's LWT Journal, went one further.

A house market crash was predicted throughout W.A. in early 2007, whilst at the same time the GB£ would buy you around AU$3.00.

temptininnit

Dorothy, Ron and Toto.


I am thinking exactly the same thing as you, or rent for two or three years in Perth and let the interest rates add to the deposit.

nurselindsey

I echo your sentiments exactly, we did reccie in march and came home buzzing about Oz but the more we looked at the figures the more we realised that they didn't add up! We still want the ozzie dream but dont want ot be a slave to our mortgage - Hence we too are headed to Adelaide.

Lindsey