OZ BOOM is over?...house prices falling & rates might drop
#316
BE Forum Addict
Joined: Mar 2009
Posts: 1,412
Re: OZ BOOM is over?...house prices falling & rates might drop
Is Kris Sayce a reader/contributor on BE?..
http://www.moneymorning.com.au/20100...mortgages.html
Originally Posted by moneymorning.
Here’s how the numbers stack up. A borrower buys a house for $1 million putting down a deposit of just $50,000. They borrow $950,000 paying $5,826 per month, or nearly $70,000 per year in interest.
How can the bank possibly lose? Even if the borrower defaults and the property is sold at a discount the bank is still likely to come up trumps – providing the housing market doesn’t crash.
How can the bank possibly lose? Even if the borrower defaults and the property is sold at a discount the bank is still likely to come up trumps – providing the housing market doesn’t crash.
#317
Re: OZ BOOM is over?...house prices falling & rates might drop
A FOUR-BEDROOM townhouse on Joyce Avenue in Glen Waverley tells the story of Melbourne's softening auction market.
It was passed in for $650,000 without a genuine bid last weekend, much less than the $720,000 its owners had hoped for.
Eleven out of 19 homes put to auction in the suburb in the past three weeks have been passed in, most failing to attract a single bid.
The owners of Joyce Avenue bought it from a developer in March last year and - with all the costs of buying and selling - need at least $660,000 just to break even.
What was that again - paying rent is just "paying of the landlord's mortgage; money down the drain....etc.....etc
Melbourne is currently experiencing a glut of auction listings as sellers try to cash in on the surge in real estate prices.
In Glen Waverley, the clearance rate in the past three weeks has averaged just 42 per cent - and that suburb is not alone.
Brighton, Albert Park and Port Melbourne are more examples of suburbs where less than half of homes put to auction in the past three weeks have sold under the hammer.
Buyers advocate Mal James says the oversupply has caused a price correction of up to 10 per cent but many sellers are yet to lower their expectations.
''The market has definitely eased in the last three weeks - you can feel it,'' he says.
''There is so much stock out there at the moment and the market is not absorbing it up like it did in April when there were frenzied auctions.''
The proportion of auctions compared to private sales is thought to be higher than 35 per cent at the moment, indicating that sellers are confident of getting their price. Just 13 per cent of property was sold using auctions during the market correction of early last year.
Mr James said that with less than one bidder per auction currently in the City of Port Phillip, sellers may soon switch to alternative ways of selling. Auctions are already falling out of favour in the Stonnington and Bayside areas.
''The auction system is not firing and excess stock is not being sold post-auction,'' he said.
Mark Armstrong of Property Planning Australia agrees prices have softened slightly after many months of bullish results. He has also noticed an ebb in demand.
''There's no doubt the market is not as strong as it was,'' he said.
''It's a fantastic thing for buyers. They can overlook poor-quality or overvalued property because there are so many more options out there.''
Some agents blame the latter on the federal government's crackdown on foreign investment in existing residential real estate that was announced in late April.
Chief executive officer of Stockdale and Leggo, Peter Thomas, says the rule change has taken ''a lot of buyers out of the market'', especially in suburbs like Glen Waverley that were popular with overseas investors.
He says sellers could no longer expect the runaway results of late 2009 and early this year.
Source: The Age
It was passed in for $650,000 without a genuine bid last weekend, much less than the $720,000 its owners had hoped for.
Eleven out of 19 homes put to auction in the suburb in the past three weeks have been passed in, most failing to attract a single bid.
The owners of Joyce Avenue bought it from a developer in March last year and - with all the costs of buying and selling - need at least $660,000 just to break even.
What was that again - paying rent is just "paying of the landlord's mortgage; money down the drain....etc.....etc
Melbourne is currently experiencing a glut of auction listings as sellers try to cash in on the surge in real estate prices.
In Glen Waverley, the clearance rate in the past three weeks has averaged just 42 per cent - and that suburb is not alone.
Brighton, Albert Park and Port Melbourne are more examples of suburbs where less than half of homes put to auction in the past three weeks have sold under the hammer.
Buyers advocate Mal James says the oversupply has caused a price correction of up to 10 per cent but many sellers are yet to lower their expectations.
''The market has definitely eased in the last three weeks - you can feel it,'' he says.
''There is so much stock out there at the moment and the market is not absorbing it up like it did in April when there were frenzied auctions.''
The proportion of auctions compared to private sales is thought to be higher than 35 per cent at the moment, indicating that sellers are confident of getting their price. Just 13 per cent of property was sold using auctions during the market correction of early last year.
Mr James said that with less than one bidder per auction currently in the City of Port Phillip, sellers may soon switch to alternative ways of selling. Auctions are already falling out of favour in the Stonnington and Bayside areas.
''The auction system is not firing and excess stock is not being sold post-auction,'' he said.
Mark Armstrong of Property Planning Australia agrees prices have softened slightly after many months of bullish results. He has also noticed an ebb in demand.
''There's no doubt the market is not as strong as it was,'' he said.
''It's a fantastic thing for buyers. They can overlook poor-quality or overvalued property because there are so many more options out there.''
Some agents blame the latter on the federal government's crackdown on foreign investment in existing residential real estate that was announced in late April.
Chief executive officer of Stockdale and Leggo, Peter Thomas, says the rule change has taken ''a lot of buyers out of the market'', especially in suburbs like Glen Waverley that were popular with overseas investors.
He says sellers could no longer expect the runaway results of late 2009 and early this year.
Source: The Age
http://www.smh.com.au/business/prope...0604-xkts.html
#318
Guest
Posts: n/a
Re: OZ BOOM is over?...house prices falling & rates might drop
A FOUR-BEDROOM townhouse on Joyce Avenue in Glen Waverley tells the story of Melbourne's softening auction market.
It was passed in for $650,000 without a genuine bid last weekend, much less than the $720,000 its owners had hoped for.
Eleven out of 19 homes put to auction in the suburb in the past three weeks have been passed in, most failing to attract a single bid.
The owners of Joyce Avenue bought it from a developer in March last year and - with all the costs of buying and selling - need at least $660,000 just to break even.
It was passed in for $650,000 without a genuine bid last weekend, much less than the $720,000 its owners had hoped for.
Eleven out of 19 homes put to auction in the suburb in the past three weeks have been passed in, most failing to attract a single bid.
The owners of Joyce Avenue bought it from a developer in March last year and - with all the costs of buying and selling - need at least $660,000 just to break even.
It appears that they must have paid about $600k a year ago and needed $660k, a 10% increase, to cover the $60k in buying and selling costs, but they actually wanted $720k, or equal to a 20% increase in value in one year.
The $650k that it was passed in for was still equal to a 8.3% annual increase, or equal to a doubling value in 9 years at that rate.
11 of of 19 homes passed in means that they had a 42% clearance rate. That is still a higher auction clearance rate than up here.
Although it is a lower rate than has been normal for Melbourne.
Over in Perth the rate has been between 14% and 33% for the last few weeks.
#319
Re: OZ BOOM is over?...house prices falling & rates might drop
I am by no means a property expert but look on real estate websites daily and have noticed that in the Mornington area property - especially units are not selling for the top end of 400k like they were. They have been on the market with open days for a few months before being put to auction.
Some are being reduced without actually specifying on the website too.
After going through all this in the UK and managing to sell in a stagnant market it does worry me what will actually happen here...
Some are being reduced without actually specifying on the website too.
After going through all this in the UK and managing to sell in a stagnant market it does worry me what will actually happen here...
#320
Re: OZ BOOM is over?...house prices falling & rates might drop
I am by no means a property expert but look on real estate websites daily and have noticed that in the Mornington area property - especially units are not selling for the top end of 400k like they were. They have been on the market with open days for a few months before being put to auction.
Some are being reduced without actually specifying on the website too.
After going through all this in the UK and managing to sell in a stagnant market it does worry me what will actually happen here...
Some are being reduced without actually specifying on the website too.
After going through all this in the UK and managing to sell in a stagnant market it does worry me what will actually happen here...
HOME owners hoping to sell their houses in Safety Beach, Somers or Eltham should be prepared for quite a wait, with the suburbs topping the list of longest average time on the market.
Figures compiled for the Herald Sun also show Melbourne units are hardest to shift in Toorak, Mordialloc, Rosebud and Elwood, with the average time on the market ranging from 77 to 96 weeks.
Regional Victorian houses tend to stay on the market significantly longer than their city counterparts, with houses in Myrtleford taking an average of 145 weeks before they sell.
Real estate agents yesterday said the time it took to sell a property depended on several factors, but usually boiled down to sellers unwilling to back down from an unrealistic asking price.
Williams Batters managing director Bill Cook said the factors could range from the location to flaws in the property.
While units and houses in the high-end suburbs of Toorak, Brighton, Elwood and Port Melbourne made the list of areas with the longest average time on the market, regional real estate had longer average times.
Frollo Real Estate director Len Frollo, of Safety Beach, on the Mornington Peninsula, said this was because to sell in those areas was more a case of "supply and demand", with fewer buyers fighting it out over properties.
"One thing is for sure, and not all people realise this, but if Melbourne sneezes, then this area here catches pneumonia. Whatever happens in Melbourne, it's magnified here," he said. "Auctions, as a general rule, don't happen down here, because it's more supply and demand."
Figures compiled for the Herald Sun also show Melbourne units are hardest to shift in Toorak, Mordialloc, Rosebud and Elwood, with the average time on the market ranging from 77 to 96 weeks.
Regional Victorian houses tend to stay on the market significantly longer than their city counterparts, with houses in Myrtleford taking an average of 145 weeks before they sell.
Real estate agents yesterday said the time it took to sell a property depended on several factors, but usually boiled down to sellers unwilling to back down from an unrealistic asking price.
Williams Batters managing director Bill Cook said the factors could range from the location to flaws in the property.
While units and houses in the high-end suburbs of Toorak, Brighton, Elwood and Port Melbourne made the list of areas with the longest average time on the market, regional real estate had longer average times.
Frollo Real Estate director Len Frollo, of Safety Beach, on the Mornington Peninsula, said this was because to sell in those areas was more a case of "supply and demand", with fewer buyers fighting it out over properties.
"One thing is for sure, and not all people realise this, but if Melbourne sneezes, then this area here catches pneumonia. Whatever happens in Melbourne, it's magnified here," he said. "Auctions, as a general rule, don't happen down here, because it's more supply and demand."
#321
Re: OZ BOOM is over?...house prices falling & rates might drop
Just my opinion but that's why I'm not buying here yet, I'm keeping the proceeds of my house sale out of the housing market for now.
#322
Re: OZ BOOM is over?...house prices falling & rates might drop
How are we going with the much-anticipated Australian property crash/stock market failure/currency plunge/financial meltdown/whatever? Any luck yet?
#323
Re: OZ BOOM is over?...house prices falling & rates might drop
It's only a matter of time before the false dawn of a 'housing shortage' is over.
#325
Re: OZ BOOM is over?...house prices falling & rates might drop
Packed now, but it's the future that counts...
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Plunge in Chinese university students coming to Australia
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Plunge in Chinese university students coming to Australia
TOUGH new immigration rules for foreign students are hitting Australia's economy, with more than 125,000 fewer international students expected to come in the next 12 months, costing more than 31,000 jobs nationwide.
The Australian Council for Private Education and Training believes export income nationally will take a $3.6 billion hit from the fall in student numbers.
#326
Forum Regular
Joined: May 2009
Location: Brisbane
Posts: 192
Re: OZ BOOM is over?...house prices falling & rates might drop
I think there's a decent chance that something very similar will happen here, in fact I think it could be a fair bit worse. In the UK prices didn't drop all that much (25-30%) and also have further to fall IMHO.
Just my opinion but that's why I'm not buying here yet, I'm keeping the proceeds of my house sale out of the housing market for now.
Just my opinion but that's why I'm not buying here yet, I'm keeping the proceeds of my house sale out of the housing market for now.
#327
Re: OZ BOOM is over?...house prices falling & rates might drop
I would recommend spreading it around several bank accounts. Don't have it locked in a term deposit, you may need it pronto.
I'd also suggest maybe trying to have cash is a few currencies, Sterling, USD, AUD to spread the risk although having most of it in gold/silver might be safer.
I'd avoid CBA and Westpac too as they over exposed to the residential real estate market. If there is even a modest fall in house prices they will be insolvent and begging the govt. for handouts and if the govt. have withdrawn the bank deposit guarantee which they are going to do in the next year, your money will be gone...
#328
Re: OZ BOOM is over?...house prices falling & rates might drop
I think thats sensible. We are doing the same at the moment. We were lucky, in the uk bought in 2008 sold ten months later for 40k profit. Watched in horror at the recession in the uk people loosing there jobs and saw some peoples life work destroyed in months. IMO i think it could go the same here if a number of factors come together at the same time, rudd has spent the countries money. I am in the construction industry and alot in the game are saying that oz is no where near out of the woods. Keep your money where its safe and if things take a dive here the uk may not be such a bad place to be. House prices are currently good something which in the uk after a recession will not last long.
I'm sure as the building projects in schools come to an end, and the current boom in new house building beings to drop, there could be a bit of a dip.
#329
Forum Regular
Joined: May 2009
Location: Brisbane
Posts: 192
Re: OZ BOOM is over?...house prices falling & rates might drop
Agreed,
I would recommend spreading it around several bank accounts. Don't have it locked in a term deposit, you may need it pronto.
I'd also suggest maybe trying to have cash is a few currencies, Sterling, USD, AUD to spread the risk although having most of it in gold/silver might be safer.
I'd avoid CBA and Westpac too as they over exposed to the residential real estate market. If there is even a modest fall in house prices they will be insolvent and begging the govt. for handouts and if the govt. have withdrawn the bank deposit guarantee which they are going to do in the next year, your money will be gone...
I would recommend spreading it around several bank accounts. Don't have it locked in a term deposit, you may need it pronto.
I'd also suggest maybe trying to have cash is a few currencies, Sterling, USD, AUD to spread the risk although having most of it in gold/silver might be safer.
I'd avoid CBA and Westpac too as they over exposed to the residential real estate market. If there is even a modest fall in house prices they will be insolvent and begging the govt. for handouts and if the govt. have withdrawn the bank deposit guarantee which they are going to do in the next year, your money will be gone...
#330
Account Closed
Joined: Jul 2006
Posts: 14,188
Re: OZ BOOM is over?...house prices falling & rates might drop
Agreed,
I would recommend spreading it around several bank accounts. Don't have it locked in a term deposit, you may need it pronto.
I'd also suggest maybe trying to have cash is a few currencies, Sterling, USD, AUD to spread the risk although having most of it in gold/silver might be safer.
I'd avoid CBA and Westpac too as they over exposed to the residential real estate market. If there is even a modest fall in house prices they will be insolvent and begging the govt. for handouts and if the govt. have withdrawn the bank deposit guarantee which they are going to do in the next year, your money will be gone...
I would recommend spreading it around several bank accounts. Don't have it locked in a term deposit, you may need it pronto.
I'd also suggest maybe trying to have cash is a few currencies, Sterling, USD, AUD to spread the risk although having most of it in gold/silver might be safer.
I'd avoid CBA and Westpac too as they over exposed to the residential real estate market. If there is even a modest fall in house prices they will be insolvent and begging the govt. for handouts and if the govt. have withdrawn the bank deposit guarantee which they are going to do in the next year, your money will be gone...