TheAncientGeek

Damn - hope it comes back down down soon.

steveyp

Incredible that your reasoned argument at the time proved to us all why rates may hit $2.50, you really must be a top currency trader with a pool the size of lake victoria. Perhaps you can turn your powers to predicting if it is going to rain next year?

Is it true cats can't swim? do't go too near the edge.

welshpom

These decimal "barriers" only really exist in the minds of small investors and traders. The big boys don't restrict themselves to multiples of 10 or 50 to make theirs moves.

With rates as they are, consider this plan... change from £ to US$ now at ~$1.93 and wait for the US$ v AUS$ rate to rise from the current $1.30 to a more reasonable $1.50.

Jimbo9

I agree, the A$/£ rate is not a widely watched rate (outside of this forum !) and is just derived from US$/£ and US$/A$ rates (2.505=1.947/0.7772), so its a bit of a nonsense to assume there are any significant pyschological forces or technical levels at work when 2.499 became 2.500 etc

BTW I like your idea of buying US$ first - the dollar looks so cheap and sentiment is so one-way against it you have to go against it!

Sure loads of banks offer US$ accounts to UK residents

Good luck!

Quinkana

50% chance of guessing a winning trade.

2 trades = 50% * 50% = 25% chance of getting both right (or wrong).

Jimbo9

When the WSJ is writing articles about the US losing its AAA credit rating surely it has to be time to go the other way?

Quinkana

WSJ is flipping coins now? Must have moved on from pendulums.

Must admit to temptation to speculatively buy the Yankee Dollar Dandy but being whipsawed seems highly likely.

When the USA loses its AAA credit rating, go for Gold.

welshpom

That simplistic maths misses the point. First, the £ to US$ rate is currently at near record highs, while the next move is indeed 50:50 whether it will go up or down, the longer term trend would suggest the rate will only go one way - fewer US$ per £. So, by that logic, now is a good time to buy US$ using £s to do the buying.

Looking at the US$/AUS$ rate, you currently get few aussies dollars for you US buck, again if you speculate what the rate will do tomorrow it's a toss of the coin or a 50:50 bet. However, in a few weeks/months the rate will almost certainly favour someone holding US$ and wanting to buy AUS$s.

Basically, both rates are maxed out and can only go one way in the longer term (more than a week or two).

Let's do an experiment. Take the sum of £1000 and hypothetically switch it to US$ today and then AUS$ one month from today.

£1000 = US$1946 = AUD$2490

Let's see how many Aussie dollars US$1946 buys us on Jan 7th 2005., compared to what £1000 buys us at the same date.

I'm not saying I'll be right, but I do think the odds of getting more AUS$s for your £s are better than 50:50 given the current exchange rates of each compared to the US$.

Quinkana

OK - let's press the pedal to the metal.

You've just flogged the family manor and jewels, palmed off the cat, bought the ticket, quit the daily grind and are about to become a stranger in a stranger land.

Do you play two-up with the lot?

Amazulu

2.51027 on www.xe.com

Go, baby, go.

bondipom

http://www.news.com.au/common/story_...5E1702,00.html

Housing data douses dollar
December 8, 2004
THE dollar was trading weaker to noon after soft investor housing data produced some local currency selling.

At 1200 AEDT the local unit was trading at $US0.7727/30 compared to 0.7769/74 at yesterday's close.

During the morning session the dollar touched a low of $US0.7725 just after the data was released from a mid-morning high of 0.7757.

The dollar fell after the Australian Bureau of Statistics said housing finance commitments for owner occupied housing fell 0.2 per cent in October, seasonally adjusted, to 49,375.

Total housing finance by value fell 3.1 per cent in October, seasonally adjusted, to $15.234 billion.


"The market hasn't reacted to the data, largely because the headline was broadly in line with expectation," Credit Suisse interest rate strategist Warren Hogan.

"If anything the currency has had a bit of a bid – bouncing off the lows of the day to be up around 0.7730."

The housing finance number has historically been only for owner occupier but the ABS now includes finance for investors.

"Market expectation for owner occupier number was about minus 0.1 per cent, but when you look at the investor numbers, which were down 8 per cent, it means that the overall figure for new mortgage demand for the month of October was a little bit softer than it has been for the last few months," Mr Hogan said.

"Importantly investors fell by eight per cent and the value of mortgages taken on by investors is now 32 per cent down on the peak which was exactly one year ago."

Jimclevs

$2.54..............just.

Jimbo9

I bet you didn't expect it to work this quickly!

US$/A$ 0.7612 (1.314 t'other way round) so you'd get 2556 A$ for your 1946 US$, compared to 2540 available if you went straight from £ to A$

Amazulu

2.55035

Jimbo9

Gold price down $14 to $437, US$ rebounding - Welshpom's advice would mean you would have made an extra 1% - or say 2.58