swigski

Re: Aussie house prices...a poll
Quote:
Originally Posted by ABCDiamond
From Australian Bureau of Statistics figures released on 2nd November 2009

Annual Changes (September Quarter 2008 TO September Quarter 2009)

Over the year to September 2009, preliminary estimates show that the price index for established houses for the weighted average of the eight capital cities increased 6.2%

Annually, house prices rose in:
+12.3% Darwin
+ 8.4% Melbourne
+ 7.8% Canberra
+ 5.9% Sydney
+ 5.6% Brisbane
+ 5.4% Hobart
+ 4.4% Perth
+ 3.7% Adelaide

It would appear that the 8.13% who said "rise 0-10%" actually got it right.

Unless of course they lived in Darwin...

Quote:
Originally Posted by ABCDiamond
The ABS only quote up to Mar 2009, as they say "Estimates for the two most recent quarters of the HPI series are preliminary and subject to revision"
They are not prepared to use those figures unlike the Real Estate industry.


So, you are prepared to use ABS statistics from NOV 2009 to show that house prices have increased but when it comes to using those same figures to compare against median wages it is a no-go because it would of course give a higher percentage and may just show that there is a bubble.

ABCDiamond

No, but hairdressing and chefs courses are, and guess what jobs they often get either during or after those courses.

ABCDiamond

The original post:
No, I am showing the preliminary estimates up to Sep 09, and specifying they are "preliminary estimates", not confirmed figures.

Are you talking about another bubble happening, not the one that was being talked about earlier.

Shouldn't the question then be, "Is there a new bubble in Australia" ?

swigski

But you still chose them to highlight and strengthen your point. You then decide that if those same figures were used in this scenario, it wouldn't strengthen your argument at all so you go back to MAR 2009, nearly 1 year ago!!!

Two sides to me - helpful and playing the game??

Play the game then!

ABCDiamond

What same figures ? One was a preliminary PER CENT estimate, the other were DOLLAR figures.

The ABS only quote dollar figures up to Mar 2009, therefore I use those numbers when we are talking $ figures.

Our last conversation on that quoted post went something like this:


The % figures that I was quoting (Over the year to September 2009, preliminary estimates show that the price index for established houses for the weighted average of the eight capital cities increased 6.2%) WERE showing that prices had RISEN, compared to the Oct 2008 poll figures of:

How was that proving that prices haven't gone up ?

I was not comparing those figures to the changes in Median wages.
Comparing wages to house prices needs to be done over a longer period than 12 months, to get a balanced figure.

pomtastic

See the first chart, it's the typical life cycle of a bubble that can be applied to any market not just housing. It was created by some proffessor in a European university. If you look at the chart Wall Street crash in 1929, then it is pretty similar to this first chart.

The second chart is housing prices in Aus, UK & US. By looking at these charts, I'd say we're at 'the back to normal' phase in Australia and the US & UK has started deflating. We're just behind in this cycle. Scary, eh?

asprilla

hmm... that bottom graph is certainly a nice shade of purple.

ABCDiamond

Looking at the first chart, it looks more like the Blow Off phase, but then I am looking at NSW prices not WA prices.

swigski

Oh I'm so glad you cleared all of that up for us??

No, I agree you did show property prices had risen. You did so using ABS NOV 2009 % figures whether preliminary or not. If you are so hung up on only using officially confirmed data, then why didn't you use MAR 2009 % figures which are not preliminary??

This may be the reason:

http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/[email protected]?OpenDocument

Maybe you should get a job in the Australian press

pomtastic

These prices are Australia wide, RBA figures.

The US has returned to mean, almost. Australia is no where near the long term mean, so looking at that chart we have alot further downside.

ABCDiamond

Why not use world wide averages then ?

Australia's average figures do not represent NSW or WA accuratley, so why not use NSW and WA when available.

ABCDiamond

Because I don't have those figures on my website, or on my computer...... I use the figures that I have available.

Hino

Ouch -10% in a year for Perth........That's gotta smart

ABCDiamond

Nah, it was balanced out by the 11.5% rise, to give a level overall figure


Using just the %'s as requested, for PERTH.

Established houses percentage change from a corresponding quarter of previous year ; Perth ;

+3.8% Sep-2007
+1.4% Dec-2007
-0.3% Mar-2008
-0.7% Jun-2008
-4.6% Sep-2008
-7.7% Dec-2008
-7.0% Mar-2009
-2.9% Jun-2009
+3.1% Sep-2009
+11.5% Dec-2009

swigski

Oh I see, so you had NOV 2009 data available but not MAR 2009.

Strange that!