House Prices Down under-another thread..
 

What do people think is going to happen/happening to them ? There seems to be a lot of variance all over the country at the moment. Any thoughts ?

Re: House Prices Down under-another thread..
 

Depends what city you are in but in the next few months they will all level off, they will stay leveled off for a while, slowly fall then fall fast, losing between 15% and 40%.

Just like what is happening in the UK but lagging behind by about 18 months to 2 years.

Perth's already in the prices slowly falling bracket.

Just IMHO though. :lol:

Re: House Prices Down under-another thread..
 

Or the states I'm sure. There is a town near me with 170,000 population and 2,000 houses are foreclosed there. The people here that buy houses at full price are idiots. Deals to be had all over. :thumbup:

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OMG that's terrible. What state are you in ?

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Oregon. Though the town is in Washington state. Even so my town only has 25,000 and has about maybe 80 foreclosures? Many auctions as well.

Edit: Just looked. There are around 200 foreclosed in my town and another 191 pre-foreclosure - Yea I'm in the US if I never mentioned :P

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I agree I know many people sitting on piles of cash and staying out of the market waiting for the inevitable fall. In the mean time I will continue to rent as it's still cheap to do so.

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Todays property guide states that in coastal suburbs prices are still rising about 10%, mostly coastal area

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We're looking in Brisbane, the market is still very hot if it's a good property. Five offers before the first open for inspection on a house we looked at on Saturday. We made an offer too, but the real estate agent was pushing for a price which we felt over valued the property.

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Is that 10% per annum?

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Over the past year, when the market flattened, only 6 suburbs slumped in value. They were Guildford, North Beach, Karawara, East Freo and Swanbourne. (The papers statistics, not mine). All other suburbs grew between 1% and 30%.

Re: House Prices Down under-another thread..
 

15-40%?

Melbourne's peaked, Sydney's slowly rising having had a bad few years, Perth is way overvalued, Brissy is still going great guns but can't last - gold coast is starting to level out.

The UK market is only sliding very slightly but I don't think it will 'fall' as such. A few years of little/no growth perhaps but that's it.

Some one mentioned the US - that's a completely different beast and I don't think the market there can be compared to either UK or Oz.

Graham

Re: House Prices Down under-another thread..
 

IMO Perth will continue to see growth, although not as much as over the past two years. There are still so many migrants coming with ready cash to snap up properties!

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OK, thanks. I think the figures for the last two quarters would tell a different story. Vested interest groups like the real estate industry will always use the figures that best reflect what they want to say i.e. "house prices always go up"

It would also be good to hear some anecdotals like from Bobcat, but he's gone a bit quiet since that ugly spat with Nursebank.

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Just had a call from the real estate agent seeing if we had made our final offer on the house (we had) - someone else has out bid us - I can't see any sign yet of a slowing housing market :(

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Just wait and see if this "outbidder" is real or virtual. Unless, of course, you believe estate agents <g>

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Is SE QLD still on the up ?

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When people realise that everything of monetry value; by that i mean, everything you can buy with your currency, in our supersonic economic solar system; is valued against the cost that you can put on an hourly rate of human hard stinking sweat, by that i mean an hours/days/months/years pay, then you may realise you have been conned by thinking the value you paid, for that artifact, is way above the value of worth, with regards to the work you may need to put in, to earn the monetry value to pay for it?;)

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Not necessarily conned, I realised my house wasn't "worth" what I paid for it despite that I still paid the "market value". We still need places to live but yes, totally overvalued in that regard.

I'm wondering when the property investors are going to start piling out of property. Surely hanging on to an asset that isn't appreciating any more and whose yield is less than the costs of holding it is financial madness. I think it's purely sentiment that is keeping the status quo at the moment.

Again just IMHO and only applicable to Perth right now but to all cities within the next year.

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Huh?

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You are right: but Australian property "investors" (my quotes) are gambling on capital appreciation even today. I think the penny will drop sooner or later but I'm not holding my breath.

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Sentiment - Drives markets in a skeward direction; sometimes sentiment could be described as pure and utter greed with regards to a gain of monetry value?

Now FEAR - that will cause a change in direction, Fear is also greed, but, to Fear the loss of the consequence of greed, a totallly new monster, which is raising its ugly no good head right as i typo this little ditto to yeh?;)

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Down here in the south west they have started pulling out.
When my parents arrived six weeks ago we had 5 houses in our street of about 12 houses on the market (plus ours!). these five houses had been up for sale since they were completed, so 12 months ago in most cases. by the end of last week all but one were sold, and for next to nothing really. a 4 x 2 on our estate in Dec 2006 you'd have had to pay $495K, the top price for these five houses was $380K!

makes you wonder how much the investors made given they've probably been paying a mortgage for 12 months on top of the investment of land and house...

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Anyway,

Back to the interesting sh!t, who recognizes the words in my signature, a little ditto written by someone i hold in a high regard!

Correct answers will be rewarded with a boat load of that lovely karma cr@p!:)

P.S.
Not myself included, as i have well below the cut off level in the account due to overspends on just having a f@cking great time in life, but if you have more, i mean more than the cut off level, well, maybe it's time to cut and run, or cut and enjoy life, because?

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5fdff520-e...nclick_check=1

;)

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Radiohead: Creep?

Re: House Prices Down under-another thread..
 

Great anecdotal Bridie, thanks.

Fantastic news for all first time buyers, those about to migrate to Perth, and all those wanting to "move up the ladder".

Makes you wonder why "house prices stagnating/falling" seems to be portrayed as "bad" news all the time.

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Exactly. Most things work better with a bit of lubrication.

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Depends if your looking long term or short term as an investment. We have two investment properties currently that as long as they are rented are costing us virtually nothing (the longest we have gone without a tenant is approx 1 week in 2 or 3 years on both properties). As long as someone else pays off the mortgage and we can get back what we paid we will be very happy come my retirement. We bought 1 property 3 years ago and the other just over 2 years ago for <$600k (combined) they are currently worth >$800k.

I will let you all know 20 years down the line how I did! :lol:

Re: House Prices Down under-another thread..
 

Well,......... one thing is for certain, you do not need any lubricant, you have your investment properties, enjoy the sensation?;)

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Sydney house prices in landslide
HOMEOWNERS in Sydney's outer suburbs have been losing as much as $450 a week every week since early 2004 on the value of their properties as the real story of mortgage belt misery begins to emerge.

http://www.news.com.au/business/mone...013951,00.html

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So, what is the reasoning behind the high interest rates and the hikes?

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Because inflation is increasing. Interest rates are too blunt a weapon IMO as they mainly hit people with mortgages which I believe is about 33% of households with one third renting and one third owning properties outright.

Rudd really ought to think about canning the huge tax cuts (an election promise, won't happen) or raising GST to, say 20% (again, is that really going to happen?)

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Yes but isn't the interest rate something like 7.5%? And inflation round 3%? Why is it well over double that?

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That's true. Price falls are occurring in the far, outer western suburbs - unfortunately few migrants want to live in these areas.

However, prices are still rising in the affluent eastern and northern suburbs - where everyone wants to live. They've never dropped around here - they were stagnant for a couple of years from 2003 and have been slowly rising since.

There really is two markets in Sydney.

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Apples and oranges. Different things.

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4%. I've even heard talk of a .5% rate rise this week.


"THE soaring cost of rent and vegetables has sent inflation jumping to a six-year high, as the Prime Minister warned that fighting rising prices will bring more pain to already struggling families.

In the 12 months to February, inflation was 4.0 per cent, according to a TD Securities/Melbourne Institute survey. "Price pressures are more broadly based than just food and petrol," analyst Joshua Williamson said."

http://www.news.com.au/business/stor...80-462,00.html

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Don't talk about fruit too:
http://britishexpats.com/forum/showthread.php?t=518655

It's financial hellhole here :lol:

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Australia seems to go through mortage rate panic every couple of years, this is only based on since we have been here so the 2000's.

Inflation (usually food and petrol prices ) rise so the tactic here is put interest rates up to stop people spending, media causes mass panic, this is the one headline that knocks sport off the front page, the public have a panic, spending eases a bit.

Interest rates this time are going to be totally out of whack with the rest of the civilised world bar new zealand :D Govt will probably raise them a couple of times before totally stuffing exports and anything connected with the strong aussie dollar.

My guess ( and I see now that also by a couple of economists ) is by next year it will be interest rate cuts not rises, then guess what happens.;)

Main spanner in the works could be Rudd knocking out negative gearing which bascially has investors renting out private homes for about half the price of the mortage on them. If that goes, the whole apple cart will go ass up. But I dont think even Rudd is that stupid.

Buy it to live in or buy something that there is not a million of, personally I like beach suburbs ( metres not minutes from the beach ) where old (cheapish) houses are, so many ways to make money from them and always a demand for them slump or not, because punters know they will go up longterm cause there is not an oversupply of them.

Stuffs still selling on this coast, 16 blocks of land released 10 gone in 2 weeks, mates oldish dated house on for 495 went for 490, think there may be some wobbles on the overpriced canal stuff, but nobody with a brain would pay 2.5 million for that anyway.

Coasts usually hold up pretty well, the pension in aus is means tested so when people retire they stuff as much of the money into beachy real estate (own home) so they can then claim a pension.

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Well, if the UK is anything to go by the interest rate is cut and the mortgage lenders don't pass the cut on to borrowers, most upped their rates.

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Here the rate rise was .25% and some banks put it up more, banks I guess are banks, but they certainly know how to fleece you. But if next year there are 2/3 interest rate cuts, its unlikely they will get away with not passing them on, especially if Rudds still wearing his superhero underwear :zzz: I imagine he would order some commission into it on behalf of the 'working family' :sneaky:

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Speak of the devil>

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au...25-601,00.html

Wonder if those those 'rebates' will replace negative gearing, odd plan, most investors are already only charging rent of about half of their mortage payments.

and more worringly, just as housing starts slow and with tradies already scratching for work and dropping rates.....

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au...4-2702,00.html