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Home prices to explode ?

Home prices to explode ?

Old Jul 4th 2008, 9:37 pm
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Default Home prices to explode ?

Whaddya make of this one ?

http://www.news.com.au/business/mone...013951,00.html

"A growing housing shortage is setting the scene for the mother of all housing booms,"

"Demand has accelerated and rising immigration, both permanent and temporary, shows no sign of abating. Meanwhile, rising interest rates continue to stymie any building recovery.

"Underlying housing demand is already outstripping new supply, and the gap is set to widen sharply, driving pent-up housing demand to record levels."
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Old Jul 4th 2008, 9:55 pm
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Default Re: Home prices to explode ?

http://www.news.com.au/business/mone...013951,00.html

And from same site its completely the opposite.

Inner Melbourne the clearance rates have dropped down to 20% to 30% - this being where at thet auction the property is passed in mainly with a vendor bid. A deal is then hatched before the end of the weekend - the reported clearance rates of 60% to 70% include these final negoiated deals.

My opinion is there is no shortgages, in terms of people not having choices where to have a roof over themselves

Its people living in a want it now, want it bigger and better, closer to work, closer to the beach, with all new fixtures and fittings.
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Old Jul 4th 2008, 11:15 pm
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Default Re: Home prices to explode ?

Originally Posted by DownUnderPaddy View Post
Whaddya make of this one ?

http://www.news.com.au/business/mone...013951,00.html

"A growing housing shortage is setting the scene for the mother of all housing booms,"

"Demand has accelerated and rising immigration, both permanent and temporary, shows no sign of abating. Meanwhile, rising interest rates continue to stymie any building recovery.

"Underlying housing demand is already outstripping new supply, and the gap is set to widen sharply, driving pent-up housing demand to record levels."
Not sure how that will happen when the mortgage industry is in recession. ie the amount of money available for property is dropping right now.

Right now for every housing is crashing story there is another housing is going to boom story. Evidence on the ground around here is a steady long term let down except in Western Sydney where it already has crashed.
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Old Jul 4th 2008, 11:18 pm
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Default Re: Home prices to explode ?

Originally Posted by Geelong Gent View Post
http://www.news.com.au/business/mone...013951,00.html

And from same site its completely the opposite.

Inner Melbourne the clearance rates have dropped down to 20% to 30% - this being where at thet auction the property is passed in mainly with a vendor bid. A deal is then hatched before the end of the weekend - the reported clearance rates of 60% to 70% include these final negoiated deals.

My opinion is there is no shortgages, in terms of people not having choices where to have a roof over themselves

Its people living in a want it now, want it bigger and better, closer to work, closer to the beach, with all new fixtures and fittings.
In Sydney it is people wanting a reasonable commute by public transport. Not unreasonable. The clearance rate is a strong indicator of the market and a rate under 50% is regarded as a buyers market.
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Old Jul 5th 2008, 1:06 am
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Default Re: Home prices to explode ?

Yes there may be loads of immigrants arriving and they all want a place to live which means that there is a housing shortage, but you can only buy a house that you can afford. Surely affordability is also related to wages and how much money the immigrants are bringing with them, not just how many immigrants are arriving.
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Old Jul 5th 2008, 1:13 am
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Default Re: Home prices to explode ?

Originally Posted by brickies wife View Post
Yes there may be loads of immigrants arriving and they all want a place to live which means that there is a housing shortage, but you can only buy a house that you can afford. Surely affordability is also related to wages and how much money the immigrants are bringing with them, not just how many immigrants are arriving.
The amount of $$ banks are willing to lend here really has nothing to do with affordability. Case in point: when we first arrived we had small deposit, only 1 of us working earning $40k, offered $400k by bank to buy/build a house. Repayments would have been more than 50% of our income, but they thought we were a good risk.
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Old Jul 5th 2008, 1:46 am
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Default Re: Home prices to explode ?

Originally Posted by Dorothy View Post
The amount of $$ banks are willing to lend here really has nothing to do with affordability. Case in point: when we first arrived we had small deposit, only 1 of us working earning $40k, offered $400k by bank to buy/build a house. Repayments would have been more than 50% of our income, but they thought we were a good risk.
yes, that was then, this is now. in the meantime (last 2-3 months) everything frozen because collateral is going down and lenders can't 'roll' the loans anymore.

newspapers/RE 'institutes' get their ad dollars from RE agents, so is normal to sing as they're told to by their customers.
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Old Jul 5th 2008, 4:28 am
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Default Re: Home prices to explode ?

Ignore it.

It's a very typical comment by a bank or a real estate company talking the market up as always. All they dream about is a never-ending housing boom with money pouring in from juicy commissions and huge debts.

In WA there's Rob Druit from REIWA - every time he opens his mouth the words "housing boom" fall out!

If people start believing the hype then it becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy with a mad rush to buy into the market.
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Old Jul 5th 2008, 5:04 am
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Default Re: Home prices to explode ?

Both points are valid, the shortage will stop prices falling, but the lack of ban loans will stop them going up much more.
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Old Jul 5th 2008, 5:57 am
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Default Re: Home prices to explode ?

Typical of a statement by a bank .
A crock of S---t There all thieves still trying to drum up rubbish
for there own gain ,thay must think people are stupid and dont
have a clue .
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Old Jul 10th 2008, 3:55 am
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Default Re: Home prices to explode ?

Sensationalist stuff designed to sell newspapers- much like the stories about values falling 30%. Every time you turn around there's a contradictory article about the very same topic!!
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Old Jul 10th 2008, 7:17 am
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Default Re: Home prices to explode ?

The housing market in the USA crashed.

The housing market here in the UK is falling.

Both of these factors are linked to a global credit crunch so why would Australia escape?

Also - there will be lot les British immigrants arriving in Australia due to them not being able to sell their houses here in the U.K
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Old Jul 10th 2008, 7:29 am
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Default Re: Home prices to explode ?

Originally Posted by DownUnderPaddy View Post
Whaddya make of this one ?

http://www.news.com.au/business/mone...013951,00.html

"A growing housing shortage is setting the scene for the mother of all housing booms,"

"Demand has accelerated and rising immigration, both permanent and temporary, shows no sign of abating. Meanwhile, rising interest rates continue to stymie any building recovery.

"Underlying housing demand is already outstripping new supply, and the gap is set to widen sharply, driving pent-up housing demand to record levels."

Do people really belive this Bulls--t just look in your local paper, The mandurah mail in wa must have 100 pages of house's that are NOTselling been like this for over 12 months and getting worse every day.
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Old Jul 10th 2008, 7:41 am
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Default Re: Home prices to explode ?

In fairness generalisations, I feel, in Aus arent possible. One state maybe up and another down. All the evidence though is Sydney is suffering and its spreading from the west inwords (as I think IvanM said). There is less money being released by the banks so any drops so far still leave a lot of properties tantalisingly out of reach due to lower mortgages been given.

I am reading nothing but doom and gloom regarding the UK market and the poster child of the property boom, Ireland, are seemingly now officially in recession.

As always cash is king. In this case anyone who sold UK home 3 yrs ago and have since rented in Aus should have a very nice deposit to put towards buying and the banks love it when their exposure (the banks) is limited by a higher than normal deposit on a property being put down.

I look with interest to see what happens when the hedge funds start to have zillions knocked of their investments (probably already happening) but I remember reading alot of UK pensions invested afair amount of the 25% allowable in to hedge funds. Could be huge probs ahead if this is the case.(note: seemingly the reason they invested in to hedge funds was that pensions were underperforming with their usual investments and the hedge fund boom gave an oppertunity to big up the pensions). Perhaps Aus supers invested in them as well ......
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Old Jul 10th 2008, 7:50 am
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Default Re: Home prices to explode ?

Just be careful of borrowing too much on mortgages folks. I live in a large market town in Northern Ireland and so many people have gone bankrupt, or are in the process at the moment. About a quarter of businesses are up for sale or vacated, everyone reckons when house prices were rising and economy in good nick, then banks were firing money at people, now they are forclosing on one default.

Rumour has it that 3 of the 4 main banks are shitting it, as they gave mortgages to anyone and now we are in the negative equity phase, they are squealing!!!!!!!!!

We have friends who are going to go under, simply because the banks let them borrow too much on rental properties, I think a lot of people were too greedy.
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