arkon

After a bit of debate on another thread I thought I'd update and make my
data public. Attatched is a 10 year history of Pound versus Aus Dollar.
Included is an excel file and a CSV for those that don't have excel.

I have run a through sums through it and in summary for those without excel:-

from 1/5/96 to 1/5/2006 Total 3655 days

10 year average = 2.4918
10 year median = 2.518
Days above 2.5 = 1938 or 53% of the time
Days below 2.45 = 1411 or 39% of the time
Days below 2.35 = 773 or 21% of the time

In general it has spend time alot higher in the recent past 5 years
than the previous 5 years.

For those currently sweating out the do I don't I exchange phenomena
all I would say is if the rate as of now would get you what you need and want
in australia then by being greedy you run the risk of it dropping. As I said on another thread the Bankwest currently gives 6.4% on balances up to a million
so thats $64000 Pa in interest. How many points increase would the exchange rate have to shift by to give you this amount extra?

chels

Is that interest rate just for new accounts? We already have a Bankwest account that is paying 6.0% for the first year, but then ING offered 6.4% on existing accounts for three months, and now we're looking to move the cash again as AMP is offering 6.30% for 6 months.

The proceeds for the UK house sale are sitting in the bank back in the UK, waiting for me to take the plunge and transfer it over. If I'd done it immediately on arriving in Australia (on a temp visa) I'd have got about 2.65, but I wasn't sure if we were going to stay and the bank rates in England were okay then. Since then, the exchange rate plummeted as well as the bank rates. Now our PR has come through, I'll have to be brave and take my chances on the exchange rate...

MartinLuther

0.15 (approx)

arkon

Thanks, so it would need to rise from 2.5 to 2.65 to get the same benefit.

arkon

Yes its for the 1st 12 months, then drops to 5.75. If AMP are offering 6.3 then I might move over to AMP.

Hutch

Yea, was eyeing that acount myself. You mean this one?
Link

OzTennis

No, it isn't quite as simple as that because there is also the Opportunity Cost to consider - i.e. if you don't change now you can do other things with your money that you can't do if you tie it up in an account to earn interest.

I'm pleased to see the analysis you've done after I produced the actual rates we've received going back almost 10 years which disproved your theory of a sub $2.35 typical rate.

FWIW of our 44 trades going back to 1997, 3 have been $2.35-$2.40, 9 have been in the $2.40's, 9 have been in the $2.50's, 9 in the $2.60's, 6 in the $2.70's, 4 in the $2.80's, 2 in the $2.90's and 2 in the low $3.00's. 32 over $2.50; 12 below $2.50.

OzTennis

arkon

Still not good odds if you ask me, It's almost a 50/50 chance as to weather it goes above 2.5 or below. Besides I published my data so people can make up their own minds.

Hels

And other people post theirs for..........???

OzTennis

No Arks, I didn't publish my data for an inference to be drawn that the £ would zap well over $2.50; I gave it to show the historical data which is no guide to possible future rates. I'm not predicting which way the rate will go and I merely point out that acting now (or later) carries an opportunity cost.

It's up to each person to act as they see fit as you say. It will be interesting with 20/20 hindsight to look back in a few months time to see what rate transpired. FWIW I am going to move some £'s now and more at the end of June to hedge my bets as it were! And BTW, even though I live in the UK presently we save in Australia - because of the exchange rates we've obtained that I mentioned. We've averaged $2.64 (weighted for amounts moved not simple average) for the 44 trades and I don't see the £ sitting at these levels in the future.

OzTennis

marco121068

...and it has in fact gained 4c in the last week or so as it is currently sitting at 2.47.

arkon

I never said you did.

spaceys

I thought it was 2.37 when i looked

OzTennis

Well you quoted my historical rates and said:

"Still not good odds if you ask me, It's almost a 50/50 chance as to weather* it goes above 2.5 or below"

And as I said my figures were not for the purpose of predicting the future, I wasn't implying 32/44 trades >$2.50 so bound to get to these levels again. At the risk or repeating myself the 32/44 >$2.50 in the last 10 years was merely to point out that >$2.50 has been the typical rate for much of the last 10 years.

*As the song says, 'Everywhere you go, always take the whether with you, whether with you ...' (pedantic so and so I know)

OzTennis

DunRoaminTheUK

$ seems to be dropping now...Bugger it. We are waiting for word from our solicitors for the exchange of contracts so that we can agree a deal with OzForex.

I figure that so far we have lost over $5k in 2 days.

Solicitors arent worth a bucket of piss.....