bge

Ive been watching the nz dollar since we started the emmi process and am starting to wonder why the dollar is falling faster than Jordans Knickers, can anyone throw any light on the subject?
thanks Bill

jandjuk

I'm not sure what you mean....? Do you mean the pound has been falling against the NZ dollar....?

See http://www.nationalbank.co.nz/econom...nge/nzdgbp.htm

It's been going steadily up for about a year, and is at it's highest for about 6 years!

Which is bad if you want to take £££ to NZ

TIZUS

I think that is what Bill means...When we first started looking at moving the it was nearly $3 to the £ and now its falling last look was about $2.70.......

Cheers Tori

southerner

I think the underlying reasons are that the NZ economy has been doing comparatively well over the last while, and also that the pound has been depreciating (along with the US$) against other major currencies.

Interest rates in NZ have not come down as quickly as elsewhere, and so some overseas investors have put their money into the NZ$.

You will note that your holiday in Europe costs more this year than last year, again due to relative weakness of the pound.

Going forward , who knows what will happen. I doubt the pound will strengthen. But I would expect the NZ$ to probably fall in value over the medium term, back towards $3.00/£.

These are just my thoughts. The next amateur economist will almost certainly have a completely different view.

Roger

This is a great source of nervousness for me. Would appreciate any advice on what to do.

Have about £200,000 (we killed ourselves to pay a big mortgage). Was planning to take over about a third to set up and buy a small house with mortgage (to rent when buy/build permanent home). Then take over the rest in two sections when rates are better. However guy from Halewood reckons that the dollar is strong in the medium/long term.

Wife is for taking it all straight away and put in a deposit account. Interest rates are poor, as are UK ones. Could argue that NZ house prices (we're off to Wellington) are going up 15% so that will be a positive if we invest in property straight away - ideally would like time to suss NZ, and local suburbs before taking the plunge though.

It's a shame for all concerned as I doubt we will ever be in this position again, particularly with NZ wages.

Yours confused,
Roger

southerner

Roger,

You win some and you lose some. I take your point that you won't be in this position again, which is probably true for many of us.

But we may need to be a bit philosophical about the current weakness of the pound vs NZ$. Your £200k is probably the result of the good fortune you and many have had in UK property recently (as well as your killing yourself to pay mortgage). If you sell your house now and move money to NZ, you will almost certainly be better off than if you had done the same at a random point during the last 10 years. (OK - in hindsight 12-18 months ago might have been perfect on all counts, but who was to know that).

I'm not very good at crystal ball gazing, and the experts aren't any better (that I can see).

My view is to move your money when it suits you. Unless it really affects your financial feasibility in NZ, I wouldn't necessarily accelerate your house buying plans.
If you have some discretion over what you do (eg. are indifferent to when you move money) then certainly have a think about likely exchange rates going forward. But please don't think you can out predict the market. Maybe the Halewood guy is right, maybe not.

Its a hard one to work out what to do, and does depend on personal circumstances. We personally will move what we need to set up in NZ (including house), but are still wondering about whether to liquidate all remaining UK investments or not.

Whichever way we go, I hope we will make the decisions, and then not look back with any regrets at what might have been.

Any ideas on what the UK sharemarket will do anyone?

GetMeOutOfHere

Any comfort in knowing you are not alone

All I can add is that the money most of us are taking is due to a rising housing market, so the majority of us are all better off than we could have been (at the moment that is), we have been fortunate, the housing market could change next year, we'll have to to all wait and see. So bearing this in mind, you must be very happy to be in a situation your in, it could be worse you could be struggling to sell your house and having to drop the asking price, it took me too long to realise that you've got to take stock and set an amount you'll need for your life in NZ. If you have that amount with the current exchange rates then cash in now, if not cash an amount in that is your safety margin(your minimum you need to start you new life) and you can wait & see with the rest.
Its a hard call but that's my analysis of what I'd do.

PS. if it helps to clarify things, I've lost 15% on the sell of my house, that was through my own stupidity and if I'd not been so greedy and been realistic.

HTH

jandjuk

apply murphy's law....

no matter when you exchange your money the NZ dollar will crash the next and you'll be cursing.....

just have to shut your eyes and forget about it I reckon. exchange your money and don't give it another thought... look forward

bge

Yeh thanks Tori thats exactly what i meen, thanks to all for replys,

Akaubear

I agree. We decided to just exchange the lot on completion day, whatever the exchange rate - then there's no gambling involved. (Turn's out we made the right choice - it's dropped like a stone since).

Plus - I believe (don't quote me on this!) that the interest rates in NZ are better here than in the UK, and the tax is less too (I think!!)

Nicola.

deedee

it fell quite drastically the other day because there was a suspected case of cjd...mad cow disease.However,the results are now showing another disease so it will recover again....the nz$ is like a yoyo,you need a crystal ball to get the best exchange rate.

smithone

This is one of the toughest decsions that you have to make when moving over here and the pound against the dollar is at a real low over at the moment.

If you look at the rates since 1998 the best it has been is 3.69 and the worst is 2.70 (which is right now). The average since 1998 is 3.16.

The approach that I took was to move my cash funds over to NZ when I moved there and put the cash in a term deposit which paid about 6% which was better than the UK.

If you move all your money over here and the rate plunges further then you can always transfer your money back (assuming you ndon't need the cash for house purchase )and reap the benefit, wait for the rate to rise and move it again.

Example

Transfer 100k GBP today at 2.70 = NZ$270k

Heaven forbit the rate drops to 2.60

Transfer your $270k back to the UK and your 100k is now nearly 104k.

This doesn't answer the question about what the rate will do but perhaps provides a fall back position should the rate change against you once you've transferred your money.

Roger

Thanks for the advice folks. Agree in 2000 I would have had only 50K and in 96 a negative 19K on the housing market. Will no doubt start grinning when the house completes.

Smithone's idea is quite novel - not sure I've the guts though. Any tax implications? Also on the short term if we hate it and plan to move back (yuk) will not have lost anything! Complicated or what.
Roger

nell m

were only buying a relatively cheap house 138,000 NZD but in the 7 weeks since we started the buying process to now (we tranfer the money tomorrow) the house is costing us an extra £4,000!

jandjuk

you could also try reading the economoc forecasts from the NZ banks. again nobody knows for sure, but they're probably better informed (I hope!) than you or I.

Last time I looked at the National Bank one it said something like 'the NZ dollar continues to strengthen and there is nothing on the horizon to suggest it will weaken'....

but then again....