GarryP

Anyone who doesn't think Australia is tied to the fortunes of China needs to look at what happened when China revalued the yuan by just 1.6% last night :



My reading says the Aus market shifted 1.3%

When the China bubble finally bursts, Australia is going to catch pneumonia - not only the currency tie, the coal, the resources, the inward investment, etc. It might seriously be worth getting the hell out of dodge the moment it happens, or earlier.

renth

I thought it was 1.9%, in any event I read they used 10% worth of their entire GDP to prop up their stock "market" over the last couple of weeks.

Also, a lot pundits in the webosphere called this a while ago, it was only a surprise to the mainstream media. Eventually they will completely unpeg the Yuan from the USD.

Could see 2.5 AUD to the GBP sooner than we expected.

Swerv-o

Probably too late to sell up already. Maybe time to start looking at work in Europe though...


S

GarryP

Actually looks like there were two of them, 1.6% & 1.9%.

Looks like China is considered to be panicking over export drops..

Suggestion is the yuan was 13% adrift from a fair 'floating' value. If you had a 1.6:1 ratio to the aussie dollar effect, that would result in an 8% change in the dollar, which on AU$2.1:£1 would result in somewhere around a 2.3:1 result.

So not enough on its own to hit 2.4 or 2.5 - but if Hockey continued to screw-up the Aussie economy and China continued to have even just hiccups, you could see it by spring.

astera

Anyone who clung onto the Aussie Dollar when it was above parity with the USD must have been mad. It had "SELL, SELL, SELL" written all over it.

It is still going to take a massive hit when either China or the US runs into a bit of trouble, be it in terms of the economy or just a stock market dive due to "overheating."

Two questions:

1. At what point should we move back to the AUD? How low does it have to go before it becomes worth taking?

2. USD vs GBP: this is the big one. Both currencies still have lots of upwards potential, but which one do you guys think will deliver more over the next 12 months?

GarryP

Day 1, Yuan devalued 1.9%
Day 2, Yuan devalued 1.6%
Day 3, Yuan devalued 1.1%

However markets have got used to the chinese central bank movements, and together with central bank support the later devaluations haven't hit the Aus dollar (which has actually strengthened).

Expectation now seems to be it will push more deflation globally, putting of interest rate rises in the US and UK.

bcworld

Pound is at A$2.17 now. Shanghai market down over 8%!

GarryP

Off the back of a stock market fall in the US on Friday.

People are talking of a china collapse again.

We'll see what happens tomorrow after this has circumnavigated the world and arrived back in our neck of the woods.

astera

Didn't China pump huge amounts of money to prop up the markets just recently? Seems like it hasn't stemmed the tide... wonder whether they'll continue to put the handbrake on to keep things calm.

Swerv-o

They did, yes. This will come as a nasty surprise to them I suspect - and just when they were starting to flex their international muscles.

This is looking like a massive tumble across the global market. I'm pointedly not going to check my super tonight...


S

astera

Just hope the AUD follows suit and starts dipping again. Already into the low 0.72s vs the USD.

bcworld

$2.24!

Cubiscus

When was this?!

bcworld

There was a huge spike around US market open...very short lived and back down to $2.20 almost immediately. Yahoo shows the day high at $2.2453.

paulry

It's tracking well for 2.5 to 1 by Christmas.