View Poll Results: Aussie Property prices over the next 6-12 months ?
fall 20% +
68
22.01%
fall 10-20%
65
21.04%
fall 0-10%
72
23.30%
same the same
55
17.80%
rise 0-10%
36
11.65%
rise 10-20%
6
1.94%
rise 20% +
7
2.27%
Voters: 309. You may not vote on this poll
Aussie house prices...a poll
Oct 25th 2008, 9:24 am
#16
Joined: Jun 2006
Posts: 4,555
Re: Aussie house prices...a poll
GE Money are now pulling out of the Australian mortgage market and are selling Wizard home loans if someone wants it.
Oct 25th 2008, 9:35 am
#17
BE Forum Addict
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 1,999
Re: Aussie house prices...a poll
my non-expert opinion.
Large falls almost everywhere, until the median property price mortgage per month is very close to the rental rate for the property.
So I think there is a long way to go down. $500K median down to $300K median. This assumes no massive inflationary rise in wages to raise rents.
This timescale will depend upon how many distressed sellers there are.
2 cents......
Large falls almost everywhere, until the median property price mortgage per month is very close to the rental rate for the property.
So I think there is a long way to go down. $500K median down to $300K median. This assumes no massive inflationary rise in wages to raise rents.
This timescale will depend upon how many distressed sellers there are.
2 cents......
Oct 25th 2008, 9:55 am
#18
Timelord
Joined: May 2006
Location: Lost in space...
Posts: 2,834
Re: Aussie house prices...a poll
So who's the piss taker that's voted for a rise of 20% or more... 
Oct 25th 2008, 10:33 am
#20
Has left the building
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 4,079
Re: Aussie house prices...a poll
So why are people always using this phrase when buying using short term focus?
Like the same crap about prices increasing every 7 years.
Other lovely phrases:
We are downsizing ?? after what just buying the property 6 months prior?
We decided to move to another area?
Good property will always sell in any market - actually no.
We have already had an offer ..... 2 weeks later what happened to that offer??? another agent in the office was dealing with it.
Like the same crap about prices increasing every 7 years.
Other lovely phrases:
We are downsizing ?? after what just buying the property 6 months prior?
We decided to move to another area?
Good property will always sell in any market - actually no.
We have already had an offer ..... 2 weeks later what happened to that offer??? another agent in the office was dealing with it.
Oct 25th 2008, 10:35 am
#21
BE Forum Addict
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 1,999
Re: Aussie house prices...a poll
So why are people always using this phrase when buying using short term focus?
Like the same crap about prices increasing every 7 years.
Other lovely phrases:
We are downsizing ?? after what just buying the property 6 months prior?
We decided to move to another area?
Good property will always sell in any market - actually no.
We have already had an offer ..... 2 weeks later what happened to that offer??? another agent in the office was dealing with it.
Like the same crap about prices increasing every 7 years.
Other lovely phrases:
We are downsizing ?? after what just buying the property 6 months prior?
We decided to move to another area?
Good property will always sell in any market - actually no.
We have already had an offer ..... 2 weeks later what happened to that offer??? another agent in the office was dealing with it.
Increasingly it is my view that property prices crashing are the very least of our worries over the next decade.
Oct 25th 2008, 10:38 am
#22
pink 'n' bouncy
Thread Starter
Joined: Jul 2006
Location: Zombie nation
Posts: 6,087
Re: Aussie house prices...a poll
I'll add my two cents to this and we'll make four cents between us. My own moderate opinion on the subject, widely expressed on many forums, is that just like every other housing market in the developed world, the majority of the Australian housing market is facing absolute, unmitigated carnage sooner than you think. Buy at your peril.
wow !
Lee
Oct 25th 2008, 10:45 am
#23
Timelord
Joined: May 2006
Location: Lost in space...
Posts: 2,834
Re: Aussie house prices...a poll
Depends upon your definitions I guess... 
But I certainly think that a return to more normal gearing ratios is a certainty... and it'll be no bad thing to see the end of houses being "worth" 8-10 times someone's salary...
Certainly feel sorry for those that bought very recently in the highs, but in all honesty doesn't anyone ever learn from previous times...???
But I certainly think that a return to more normal gearing ratios is a certainty... and it'll be no bad thing to see the end of houses being "worth" 8-10 times someone's salary... Certainly feel sorry for those that bought very recently in the highs, but in all honesty doesn't anyone ever learn from previous times...???
Oct 25th 2008, 10:48 am
#24
BE Forum Addict
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 1,999
Re: Aussie house prices...a poll
DrWho's right to suggest more sensible gearing ratios. What I'm suggesting though is that you need an economic system to have gearing ratios, and we're about to not have one of those any more, as fiat currency once again collapses because of the corruption and greed of private banks and the overspending lunacy of governments. Oh = carnage, and then post-carnage, sensible gearing ratios.
Just remember what Thomas Jefferson said:
"I sincerely believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people to whom it properly belongs."
The problem we all have is the number of morons out there who will happily borrow eight times their salary to buy a house 50% over-valued. They ruin it for us all.
Just remember what Thomas Jefferson said:
"I sincerely believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people to whom it properly belongs."
The problem we all have is the number of morons out there who will happily borrow eight times their salary to buy a house 50% over-valued. They ruin it for us all.
Last edited by Tableland; Oct 25th 2008 at 10:54 am.
Oct 25th 2008, 11:45 am
#25
Proudly Deplorable
Joined: May 2003
Location: Alloha snack bar
Posts: 24,246
Re: Aussie house prices...a poll
So why are people always using this phrase when buying using short term focus?
Like the same crap about prices increasing every 7 years.
Other lovely phrases:
We are downsizing ?? after what just buying the property 6 months prior?
We decided to move to another area?
Good property will always sell in any market - actually no.
We have already had an offer ..... 2 weeks later what happened to that offer??? another agent in the office was dealing with it.
Like the same crap about prices increasing every 7 years.
Other lovely phrases:
We are downsizing ?? after what just buying the property 6 months prior?
We decided to move to another area?
Good property will always sell in any market - actually no.
We have already had an offer ..... 2 weeks later what happened to that offer??? another agent in the office was dealing with it.
Oct 25th 2008, 12:07 pm
#26
Forum Regular
Joined: Apr 2005
Location: Tapping
Posts: 104
Re: Aussie house prices...a poll
DrWho's right to suggest more sensible gearing ratios. What I'm suggesting though is that you need an economic system to have gearing ratios, and we're about to not have one of those any more, as fiat currency once again collapses because of the corruption and greed of private banks and the overspending lunacy of governments. Oh = carnage, and then post-carnage, sensible gearing ratios.
Just remember what Thomas Jefferson said:
"I sincerely believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people to whom it properly belongs."
The problem we all have is the number of morons out there who will happily borrow eight times their salary to buy a house 50% over-valued. They ruin it for us all.
Just remember what Thomas Jefferson said:
"I sincerely believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people to whom it properly belongs."
The problem we all have is the number of morons out there who will happily borrow eight times their salary to buy a house 50% over-valued. They ruin it for us all.
The public debt levels are so high now that it can't carry on to even higher levels.
Property will no longer be seen as an investment - rather becoming what it is - shelter.
Governments are determined to stop this collapse at all costs - inflation to the rescuse of the debtors, unless deflation takes over.
The problem we all have is we all need shelter.
Oct 25th 2008, 12:12 pm
#27
Forum Regular
Joined: Jan 2008
Posts: 131
Re: Aussie house prices...a poll
Do you think investment properties could be nationalised?- scary prospect.........
Oct 25th 2008, 12:16 pm
#28
BE Forum Addict
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 1,999
Re: Aussie house prices...a poll
This is a little more severe than I had in mind - almost bearish GHPC levels.
The public debt levels are so high now that it can't carry on to even higher levels.
Property will no longer be seen as an investment - rather becoming what it is - shelter.
Governments are determined to stop this collapse at all costs - inflation to the rescuse of the debtors, unless deflation takes over.
The problem we all have is we all need shelter.
The public debt levels are so high now that it can't carry on to even higher levels.
Property will no longer be seen as an investment - rather becoming what it is - shelter.
Governments are determined to stop this collapse at all costs - inflation to the rescuse of the debtors, unless deflation takes over.
The problem we all have is we all need shelter.
It's out of any government's reach now, and maybe always was. Most governmental interventions into crises like this one only make things worse. Homes are shelter, but you have to own your own shelter or it can be taken away. This is why it is a crime to have allowed HPI to grow to this extent. It's coming down hard and heavy now though, and the scariest thing is it hasn't even started yet.
I add in edit that my original estimate was 30% off in three years, but I have revised this now because we already lost 13% in a year and it's accelerating. I am comfortable with my 50% off prediction, which of course is subject to further revision as more figures are revealed. Remember, bankers run countries, not governments. They have done so since time immemorial. That's what Jefferson is getting at - untl we issue our own currency this problem will return again and again for our entire history.
Last edited by Tableland; Oct 25th 2008 at 12:19 pm.
Oct 25th 2008, 12:27 pm
#29
Forum Regular
Joined: Apr 2005
Location: Tapping
Posts: 104
Re: Aussie house prices...a poll
There are plenty of people with some money for a deposit & reliable employment who can buy at the new lower prices, will they feel they got a bargin?
The previous owners (speculators) will become distressed sellers - finding the new bottom price through price discovery.
Oct 25th 2008, 12:35 pm
#30
Forum Regular
Joined: Apr 2005
Location: Tapping
Posts: 104
Re: Aussie house prices...a poll
It's out of any government's reach now, and maybe always was. Most governmental interventions into crises like this one only make things worse. Homes are shelter, but you have to own your own shelter or it can be taken away. This is why it is a crime to have allowed HPI to grow to this extent. It's coming down hard and heavy now though, and the scariest thing is it hasn't even started yet.
I add in edit that my original estimate was 30% off in three years, but I have revised this now because we already lost 13% in a year and it's accelerating. I am comfortable with my 50% off prediction, which of course is subject to further revision as more figures are revealed. Remember, bankers run countries, not governments. They have done so since time immemorial. That's what Jefferson is getting at - untl we issue our own currency this problem will return again and again for our entire history.
I add in edit that my original estimate was 30% off in three years, but I have revised this now because we already lost 13% in a year and it's accelerating. I am comfortable with my 50% off prediction, which of course is subject to further revision as more figures are revealed. Remember, bankers run countries, not governments. They have done so since time immemorial. That's what Jefferson is getting at - untl we issue our own currency this problem will return again and again for our entire history.
The governments would stop this very fast - no tax for them.