Rick b

I think you could be partly right. I guess it's difficult for them to judge what the best next step is. The widespread perception in Harare has been for years that strikes/stay aways don't work. All that happens is the workers lose money as the companies they work for lose profits for however long they are closed for. In my opinion, thats indicative that again the leadership of the MDC are a bit out of touch with the general population.

Well you could be right, there are so many rumours flying about over what has happened that no one really knows. Many people are more inclined to believe the rumour that he has been forced to stay by the heads of the Military. But then again there has been no real military presence on the streets.

I can only give my opinion on this, so please see it as that and not as fact.
In Harare especially much of the talk was about change. NOT about the MDC. I don't think it really mattered who the opposition was, the people would have voted for any change. Those that wanted it that is. Morgan has been involved over the past few years in more than his share of beatings, attacking those who disagree with him and targeting those who oppose his ideas. This is obviously hard to hear from a Western perspective where in the western media he is made out to be a saviour of Zimbabwe.
I think many are willing to vote for him (as has been apparent from the results posted on the booths after the election) but I don't think all that many are willing to fight, strike etc for him. However much it seems crazy from the UK and US media I have said on here before and newshoney has backed this up, that inside Zimbabwe day to day you are completely safe. Therefore many in Zim may be willing to get Morgan in by voting, but they are not willing to compromise that safety for someone who they don't really trust.

One leading train of thought is that Makoni was the best chance for real change in Zimbabwe. He had the support of some of Zanu PF moderates and genuinely wanted change. The Mutambara faction of the MDC realised that it was unlikely many Zanu PF supporters would support Morgan, but they could well support Makoni so instead of Mutambara tryig to split an opposition vote, he didn't stand and urged his members to vote for Makoni. Many believe Morgan believe too much of his own press and simply wants to be President instead of actually doing something like Mutambara did that would have given a much better chance of change.

Going forwards to today - people before the election didn't hold out too much hope for change. They honestly thought it would be another obviously rigged count and would be pointless. It was only in the 3 weeks prior to the election that suddenly people got so much hope. There was no intimidation, there was no stopping of rallies, the MDC and Makoni held rallies in rural areas and it seemed like there was a want for change through the whole population. Now people are more or less resigning themselves to their perception before the election. That is one of waiting until Mugabe dies and then there will be change. You have to remember that even in MDC's counting, which DIDN'T include the postal votes, he still got over 40% of the vote. He is still popular for liberating Zimbabwe and therefore many people are going back to getting on with their lives and waiting until he dies.

Pablo

Clearly not everybody is 'completely safe.'

Rick b

Sigh.

If you are not a journalist or you are not going about overtly supporting the MDC and just going about your daily business you are safe.

Pablo

Sigh. Like the farmers we hear about.

Pablo

"On Wednesday, the United States and Britain are expected to raise the Zimbabwe crisis at a high-level meeting in the UN Security Council, Western diplomats said, despite South African opposition."

France calls again for release of vote results in Zimbabwe
http://www.africasia.com/services/ne...9.f81j1kgs.php

why

i can't make any comment as i don't think i am worthy to say anything
but here's a cool song to lift everyone's spirit
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I54DgVennXU

shiftdelete

Makoni doesn't deserve anything- he has been part of the ruthless, corrupt, racist regime- now suddenly he appears as some sort of saviour. No-one can tell me this was not very carefully discussed with Mugabe before makoni 'jumped ship' (sarcasm).

The only way it seems is that mugabe dies, or many people die before him- either way some-one is going to die.... thanks sadc...for nothing!

Pablo

ShiftDelete, it was reported here that Mbeki wants Makoni (hardly a recommendation!) and that he was keen for Mugabe to rig the vote in favour of Makoni and against the MDC.

The same report - by Peter Oborne in The Spectator - commented that Mugabe is so detached from reality that he actually expected to win, and when the Electoral Commission people came to him and told him that he had lost, he flew into a rage.

The difficulty for Mugabe, and for Mbeki his lickspittle supporter, is that they have to try to preserve a figleaf of legitimacy to Mugabe's tyranny. Hence the desperate attempt to portray the election as somehow fair and democratic.

As for the MDC, when I hear these criticisms that they should somehow or other have opposed better, I wonder quite how they were supposed to do this when the media is controlled, the ballots rigged, the judiciary increasingly corrupted, and Mugabe's henchmen are ready to crush dissent. It is certainly understandable that a general strike in a country where most people are unemployed is unlikely to have a major effect. But what else, in the absence of free modes of dissent?

I suspect that nothing would please Mugabe and his thugs better than some sort of armed insurrection - which would enable them to unleash wholesale murder under cover of a state of emergency.

It can't go on for much longer, but there isn't going to be much left afterwards. Inflation is reaching Weimar levels. The place is little more than a gangster state now.

Rick b

Disagree. Obviously only opinion but a lot of people believe that Makoni was the "figurehead" of a large group of Zanu PF people who knew things had to change. When he was finance minister he was noted for disagreeing with Mugabe quite a bit. He may have been part of Zanu PF yes - but many business leaders and economists from outside the country saw him as really trying to stop inflation and trying to turn the economy around. He is also one of the few who has not been given a farm.

I agree that I and everyone else would much rather have a wholesale change in Government. But realistically if it means change would come and the stopping of the stupid economic policies of Mugabe and Gono, then a lot of people would have chosen to have that and have Makoni in as a kind of compromise.

shiftdelete

And I disagree with you then.

Morgan is the only person with enough guts to have done the hard yards over a long period. You can tell a person by their works/ stamina. He may not be a saint, rough as guts, but to compare him to a person who has taken leave of the mugabe regime, at what is virtually the end of a long cycle of opression and misery, is frankly quite disturbing.

Makoni has yet to be beaten up by mugabe.

Makoni's supporters have yet to be murdered and beaten and tortured by mugabe.

There is a reason for this- he's someone's puppet. I agree it has definitely been worked out with mbeki...no question pablo.

Zanu PF must be destroyed in its entirity- just like the National Party in SA was- it is evil, racist, oppressive regime that should be destroyed. Its worse than apartheid, because it should know better.

Al Jazeera tonight interviewed a number of old people in the country trying to scrape together a days meal. It was difficult to watch. These are the people zanu pf liberated- these are the people zanu pf will beat up in a heartbeat. This has been makoni's party for 20+ years- too absurd to laugh about really.

Cheers.

shiftdelete

Hi
sorry.....- didn't get it

maybe i'm just tired...tired of watching zimbabwe slowly destroy itself day by day for 10 years....checking every day to see what has happened....
geeeez- i need a life

I'll watch it again sometime, but joy, lift?- not for me....but nice gesture

post again sometime- we need a fresh spirit around here

Pablo

Well let us hope that Mbeki is publicly shamed for his hypocrisy. Still, I don't hold out much hope when it comes to the absurd United Nations....


Zim to haunt Mbeki at UN
http://www.mg.co.za/articlePage.aspx...ticleId=337071



And a piece today on Mugabe's terror victims... lest we prefer to forget.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main...16/wzim116.xml

TigerOC

I found a very insightful and balanced summary of what has happened and is going to happen here. It pretty well summarises what all of us expats have been saying for a long time. There are only 2 routes to change for the current regime.
1. A violent overthrow conducted and lead by military minds (perhaps ex Rhodies Special Forces who understand the people and terrain. There are many black former Selous Scouts outside Zim as I have met them.)

2. The total disintegration of the economy which also impacts severely on South Africa. At this point South Africa will stop the support. This may change if Zuma comes to power. I have not seen the same "brotherhood" that exists with Mbeki.

It is not a pretty sight and a lot of lives will be lost. Bob could not have done a better job for Smithy in proving that Africa is not and will not be ready for democracy for another 30 years.

shiftdelete

He's been on bbc a couple of times...tonight again. It is refreshing to hear a black zimbabwean speak with such quiet confident elegance. And he obviously knows whats going on.

sadc have sold the people of zimbabwe out but:

route 1 is undesirable and conceptually wrong;

route 2 (wait for the economy to completely kark it) = least path of of resistance therefore possibly least amount of violent death.

Reckon it is probably route 2.

Can't see MDC rallying the population from this point on. SADC have seen to that.

Pablo

Crisis what crisis?


Zim Economy Near to Collapse
http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?newsl...5a1a20080417at