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Old Dec 28th 2017, 3:54 am   #1141
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Default Re: The world of automation

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Originally Posted by ozzieeagle View Post
Personally I think the first widespread acceptance will come via Trucking on the Nullabour between Ceduna and Norseman. That'll take away at least 5 driver shifts per 3 truck convoy, assuming the front truck is manned. Australia could possibly be one of the first places in the world where driverless is a viable proposition in trucking at least. 2020 I give it.
That's Perth. Not exactly NSW, Vic and QLD. But here's the answer to that.

Truckies will be picking the goods up all along the route.

https://inlandrail.artc.com.au

Inland Rail will help reduce congestion on our highways and allow for increased passenger rail services in the busy Sydney network.
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Old Dec 28th 2017, 4:00 am   #1142
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Default Re: The world of automation

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Originally Posted by ozzieeagle View Post
Personally I think the first widespread acceptance will come via Trucking on the Nullabour between Ceduna and Norseman. That'll take away at least 5 driver shifts per 3 truck convoy, assuming the front truck is manned. Australia could possibly be one of the first places in the world where driverless is a viable proposition in trucking at least. 2020 I give it.
US has similar routes, so we should expect a similar roll out. Certainly I'd bet Tesla will be on it. Replace amphetamines with optical processing.

However, it seems the city taxi service is their prime focus. You could see Google doing all of Phoenix in 2018, followed by most of the US cities in 2019, with GM close behind and Uber running to catch up. Roll them out as 'test services' (aka beta release) and before you know where you are there is a country wide autonomous service without anyone being aware of it.

The more I think about it, the more I think they are being sneaky in 'doing a beta' to get acceptance without the razz of a full 'launch'. By the time we get to 2021 and the supposed official launch, they would just be taking down the 'beta' label on something that already existed. Any issues and it's just 'still in testing'.
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Old Jan 15th 2018, 6:06 am   #1143
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Default Re: The world of automation



This is what GM plans to roll out on 2019, cat 5 automation, no wheel.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/g...g-wheel-2018-1
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Old Jan 15th 2018, 9:51 am   #1144
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Default Re: The world of automation

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Originally Posted by GarryP View Post
https://static.businessinsider.com/i...b461e-1200.jpg

This is what GM plans to roll out on 2019, cat 5 automation, no wheel.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/g...g-wheel-2018-1
Crikey! It's coming quick.
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Old Jan 15th 2018, 10:15 am   #1145
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Default Re: The world of automation

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Crikey! It's coming quick.
Yep, everyone has been pulling in their timeframes from 2021 - which means assuming they are late, we'll still likely see it by the early 2020s.

Reason is, of course, they can smell the money in it, and they want to be sexy on the stock market again. Selling transportation services means the potential to get 10x as much profit out of each vehicle they make, in the midst of an upheaval that reshape the industry, and probably other industries too.

Sure beats having new ways cup holders can fold out.

However, governments aren't ready, passengers aren't ready, finance types aren't ready - and the clock is ticking down.
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Old Jan 15th 2018, 4:41 pm   #1146
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Default Re: The world of automation

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Originally Posted by GarryP View Post
Yep, everyone has been pulling in their timeframes from 2021 - which means assuming they are late, we'll still likely see it by the early 2020s.

Reason is, of course, they can smell the money in it, and they want to be sexy on the stock market again. Selling transportation services means the potential to get 10x as much profit out of each vehicle they make, in the midst of an upheaval that reshape the industry, and probably other industries too.

Sure beats having new ways cup holders can fold out.

However, governments aren't ready, passengers aren't ready, finance types aren't ready - and the clock is ticking down.
Good point. I guess the industry will push government, and we consumers will do what we are told! Remember when iPad came out and some people saw it as a flash in the pan. Automated Vehicles will make great sense for the elderly and for shuttles etc..
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Old Jan 15th 2018, 5:18 pm   #1147
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Default Re: The world of automation

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Good point. I guess the industry will push government, and we consumers will do what we are told! Remember when iPad came out and some people saw it as a flash in the pan. Automated Vehicles will make great sense for the elderly and for shuttles etc..

For me, it will make heavy traffic something almost something to look forward to because it will mean more time to read a book or browse the net or sleep even. Trouble is when everyone gets into driverless there probably won't be traffic jams anymore. It will definitely make heavy traffic far less of a pain in the arse.
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Old Jan 15th 2018, 11:28 pm   #1148
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Default Re: The world of automation

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Good point. I guess the industry will push government, and we consumers will do what we are told! Remember when iPad came out and some people saw it as a flash in the pan. Automated Vehicles will make great sense for the elderly and for shuttles etc..
There's quite a bit in it for government too - the death toll on roads costs quite a bit in healthcare. And it won't just be for elderly, etc. - my guess is that two car families will first become one car, and then pretty soon after no car, with the double garage turned into living space.

And if you want to realise why Ford and GM are so interested :

Code:
~$30k Earnings for manufacturer on building and selling 1 car
vs
   5  year vehicle life
  20  trips per day (ave)
 $10  per trip earnings
$365k total earnings for the vehicle manufacturer/owner

and if you use a robotaxi twice a day

$10 x 2 x 365 = $7300 cost
vs  
$8,469 average cost of owning a car per year in 2017
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Old Jan 15th 2018, 11:37 pm   #1149
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Default Re: The world of automation

Are the manufacturers looking at a service model rather than a sales model?
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Old Jan 15th 2018, 11:43 pm   #1150
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Default Re: The world of automation

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Are the manufacturers looking at a service model rather than a sales model?
Yep, you can see why from those numbers. I'm sure they will sell over priced vehicles for those that want them though.

It's basically why Uber jumped into trying to create their own robotaxi - the manufacturers are likely to say that their vehicles can only be robotaxis with THEM creaming off the profit. Certainly that's what Tesla have sneaked into their T&Cs for the Model 3.

And if one of them gets a patent on a key piece of technology needed to make it all work - then SHTF.
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Old Jan 16th 2018, 7:25 am   #1151
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Default Re: The world of automation

Quote:
Originally Posted by GarryP View Post
There's quite a bit in it for government too - the death toll on roads costs quite a bit in healthcare. And it won't just be for elderly, etc. - my guess is that two car families will first become one car, and then pretty soon after no car, with the double garage turned into living space.

And if you want to realise why Ford and GM are so interested :

Code:
~$30k Earnings for manufacturer on building and selling 1 car
vs
   5  year vehicle life
  20  trips per day (ave)
 $10  per trip earnings
$365k total earnings for the vehicle manufacturer/owner

and if you use a robotaxi twice a day

$10 x 2 x 365 = $7300 cost
vs  
$8,469 average cost of owning a car per year in 2017
Ah. Recurring revenue. Smart .... very smart.
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Old Jan 16th 2018, 7:15 pm   #1152
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Default Re: The world of automation

We know governments and infrastructure will be the final hurdle for transport automation.

Interesting to see the NSW government have technology and automation as part of their ports and freight plan.

Its a loooong way off though.

https://future.transport.nsw.gov.au/react-feedback/supporting-plans/freight-and-ports-plan/2-8-technology/
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Old Jan 16th 2018, 8:39 pm   #1153
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Default Re: The world of automation

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We know governments and infrastructure will be the final hurdle for transport automation.
It's the simple things, like doing road markings properly, making sure they are visible, making sure there up to date information on them that matches reality, keeping the roads in good condition.

It's also things like getting rid of tolls.

And there will be junctions that will be difficult for automation that they will need to remake to make them safer.

My guess is that the governments will try to facilitate automation, but unless they hire people with more clue, they will cock it up - it won't be the same old same old. And I expect the multinational companies operating the robotaxies will not be backward in taking them to court where they can demonstrate incompetence that costs them money.

Oh and hook turns are right out. They need to be getting rid of those now.
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Old Jan 16th 2018, 10:18 pm   #1154
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Default Re: The world of automation

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Originally Posted by GarryP View Post
It's the simple things, like doing road markings properly, making sure they are visible, making sure there up to date information on them that matches reality, keeping the roads in good condition.

It's also things like getting rid of tolls.

And there will be junctions that will be difficult for automation that they will need to remake to make them safer.

My guess is that the governments will try to facilitate automation, but unless they hire people with more clue, they will cock it up - it won't be the same old same old. And I expect the multinational companies operating the robotaxies will not be backward in taking them to court where they can demonstrate incompetence that costs them money.

Oh and hook turns are right out. They need to be getting rid of those now.
They are not simple things nor inexpensive.

We are a loooong way off.
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Old Jan 18th 2018, 9:17 am   #1155
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Default Re: The world of automation

http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/world-first-a-drone-has-been-used-to-rescue-two-swimmers-struggling-in-heavy-surf-20180118-h0kg9m.html

Now does this mean lifeguards are going to be done out of a job?
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