MiniBrit

I have some funds to transfer from the UK and obviously I want to get the best rate. At the moment the pound is $1.84, so its recovered a lot from a couple of months ago. I found one website which (at the time of posting) forecasts the pound going to $2.22 this month!! http://www.forecasts.org/pound.htm another one I found forecasts $1.83 which obviously its already exceeded http://www.marketvector.com/exchange-rate/pound.htm

I understand that there are so many factors at play here that its impossible to get an accurate forecast, but Im not the most 'money minded' person myself , so Im wondering what opinions you guys have about how high the pound might go this time. Or even some other links I could look at!!

I guess I could NOT be greedy and transfer it all now, or be greedy and hope it will go up, or even hedge my bets and transfer half now and see what happens.... Although the difference between transferring at $1.84 and $2.00 could mean the difference between having enough for a good down payment on a house or not-quite-so-good.

comments / suggestions welcomed.....

MB

Manc

currently selling my mums old house.

I hope it goes to $2.00 a quid..........

Big D

Have these been refreshed since you posted? can't find reference to $2.22?

Ah for a crystal ball - i am playing the same game waiting for it to strengthen so i can send dollars home!! Until Katrina I would have said the dollar would continue to strengthen - but the opposite might now be true. Although the pound doesn't appear to be strengthening despite rates being held again. Petrol prices are rising in UK too so we might just see the rate hover at current levels. To be honest if there was going to be a major change i think we would have seen it by now!

vegas

The SEP prediction is a typo if you look at the graph below it the prediction for september is still in the $1.8 range. If I was you I would take what is available at the time as there is just as much chance of it going up as going down.

paddingtongreen

Check the futures market, you may be able to make a decision and hedge the bet.

MiniBrit

LOL I thought it was too good to be true!! Thanks for pointing that out. Im very glad I asked on here now, might have been waiting a long time for it to get to $2.22

Ray

It will never happen ..all the big money dives out at just over the 1.90...

jaytee

Tough call. I don't trust team Bush/ Greenspan with retaining the value of the dollar. Their policy has been to cheapen it to where it is now. I'd rather go with keeping some, if not most of the money in pounds. I know it's not much consolation if the pound were to lose significant value against the dollar.

Anyone with a feel for the economy here has seen the price of homes, healthcare, gasoline, home heating oil (coming this winter) skyrocket while at the same time the dollar has sunk against the Euro and the British Pound.

Predictions, predictions.. Will the strength of the dollar be allowed to bear any relation to the state of the U.S. economy? That's what I want to know.



Americans drowning in personal, national debt


Lynchburg News & Advance
September 6, 2005



Americans are drowning in a sea of debt - from the home to the government to the world marketplace.

They seem to think that saving money and living within their means are old-fashioned ideas. Today’s mantra is spend, spend, spend, borrow, borrow, borrow.

But economists, including Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, are warning that ballooning trade and budget deficits threaten the long-term health of the economy.

Most Americans need look no further than their own households to know that debt has gotten out of hand. Credit card debt alone averages $7,200 per household. That means that debt now eats almost $1 out of every $5 American families have to spend on life’s necessities.

The lack of discipline is rampant. The average American saves about $1 out of $100 - a savings rate of 1 percent, compared with the average 8 percent of the 1950s.

That “I want it now� mentality is apparent in Americans insatiable appetite for stuff - clothes, cars, cell phones, computers. Most of that stuff is imported from other countries, which contributes to the national trade deficit. Americans are likely to spend $680 billion more on foreign goods this year than overseas buyers do on U.S. goods.

The instant-gratification sickness is also visible in rising obesity rates, and the analogy is apt. Americans are literally bloated - consuming more than their bodies need and more than their wallets hold.

Many Americans think the rising values of their homes might be able to save them in the event of a catastrophe. But with so much debt, a small increase in interest rates could force people out of those homes and into the street.

Americans who fail to save will also find it more and more difficult to retire - at any age.

When it comes to borrowing, politicians seem to be taking their lead from their constituency. The government’s budget surplus of $236 billion in 2000 evaporated into a $412 billion deficit in 2004. While the deficit is projected to go down to $331 billion in 2005, that’s still a mind-boggling number.

Other nations actually purchase that U.S. debt in the form of treasury bonds and notes. If Japan and China, the two biggest holders of U.S. debt, stopped buying U.S. securities or even started dumping them, that could send the dollar plummeting.

While some economists don’t accept such a doomsday scenario, there can be no question that Americans’ greedy ways are bad for their health, their stress levels and their future.

The consumption of unnecessary, mostly foreign, goods has a domino effect. Jobs go overseas. The global environment is filled with more chemicals from production, transportation and disposal of these goods.

Consumer advocates have a couple of pieces of advice. Cut up all your credit cards. Count out your hard-earned dollars by hand as you prepare to spend them. That will tend to make you think twice about what you’re doing. Think about what you buy, where it came from and the conditions of the workers who made the product.

Don’t buy houses and cars you can’t afford. Learn to live within your means. If average Americans take back control of their finances, maybe then they’ll expect their politicians to do the same.

Heavy debt load makes Americans vulnerable

Could an increase in interest rates or a change in foreign investments spell disaster in the U.S.?
http://www.detnews.com/2005/money/05...A06-295606.htm

doctor scrumpy

The Memsahib is cheered by this news, she has a 20 quid note from my mum for her birthday. Planning the right day to turn it into $ 44 !

Dimsie

$1.90 will do me fine !!

Taffyles

I'd be happy with that too

rincewind

I hope it doesn't. I'm sending money the other way to pay off debts and watching your dollars turn into pathetic sterling amounts is annoying

Big D

Me too! crash! crash! crash!

scrubbedexpat099

I need to top up my US funds so also have an interest.

In the 2 years I have been following the pundits they have been consistant, unfortunately consistantly wrong.

There was a similar thread on here when the Pound hit 1.93 ish, certain to go over 2.00 and what happened, nose dived.

If you can afford for it to go either way then take your hunch, otherwise lock in.

snowbunny

I've heard that American consumers have been propping up the economy, such as it is, and are pretty well maxed out. If business spending and hiring does not pick up, then ----> we're all headed for the toilet.