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US economy: set to implode?

US economy: set to implode?

Old Nov 29th 2012, 2:30 pm
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Default US economy: set to implode?

"I don't suggest y'all come over here any time soon. I feel like our economy is about to implode within the next 5-10 years."

Thus spake my brother from Georgia in a recent email. (My UKC husband and I are applying for his visa and hope to emigrate next year.) It could be that he's thinking of the Georgia economy in particular, but I think he does feel it's looking pretty bleak for the whole country.

What are others' thoughts on this?
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Old Nov 29th 2012, 3:14 pm
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Default Re: US economy: set to implode?

No idea, though I did just read that the economy grew faster in the last quarter than expected:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/...onomy/1729301/

I had an interesting drunk discussion with some family friends in Kansas over thanksgiving. I tried to explain to them that I saw a positive outlook for the economy, it would be slow and probably relatively well foundationed rather than boom and busty.

I think for a lot of people looking at the economy it is similar to the confusion between weather and climate. Scientists talk about global warming (more properly climate change) but the average person on the ground doesn't understand that global warming can mean your personal local temperatures may go down and really global climate is not the same as local weather. So you can talk about steady economic growth in Q3 all day long, but if that person has seen the value of their house halved, their stock investments for retirement decimated and been made unemployed they won't believe that the economy is in relatively good shape and heading in the right direction.
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Old Nov 29th 2012, 3:22 pm
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Default Re: US economy: set to implode?

Folks, I used to be a sincere Libertarian with extra points in anarcho-capitalist studies. I bought gold, stored food and water purification supplies, bought books on self-sufficiency, and learned to garden and build a house. I'm not sorry for the time I spent learning; the disaster supplies will maybe come in handy in case a hurricane hits again like Ike did. What I do regret is buying into the "every man for himself" mentality that half the nation embraces. Every man is NOT for himself, and the purpose and measure of a functioning society is to take care of the people in it.

Most people I know who moan histrionically about the country "going to Hell" believe that it's because of people claiming benefits to which they are not entitled. It's hard to see which benefits they think people ARE entitled to. But they don't seem to have a problem with corporate entitlement or politicians and other "people in power" with their hands in other people's pockets. No, it's the homeless, ill, hungry, children, elderly, you name it, that are the problem with the economy, you see.
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Old Nov 29th 2012, 3:46 pm
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Default Re: US economy: set to implode?

Originally Posted by sir_eccles View Post
No idea, though I did just read that the economy grew faster in the last quarter than expected:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/...onomy/1729301/

I had an interesting drunk discussion with some family friends in Kansas over thanksgiving. I tried to explain to them that I saw a positive outlook for the economy, it would be slow and probably relatively well foundationed rather than boom and busty.

I think for a lot of people looking at the economy it is similar to the confusion between weather and climate. Scientists talk about global warming (more properly climate change) but the average person on the ground doesn't understand that global warming can mean your personal local temperatures may go down and really global climate is not the same as local weather. So you can talk about steady economic growth in Q3 all day long, but if that person has seen the value of their house halved, their stock investments for retirement decimated and been made unemployed they won't believe that the economy is in relatively good shape and heading in the right direction.
Thanks for sharing the article. I think you're right about personal circumstances heavily colouring someone's view of the economy. Having said that, my brother is doing okay. It may be that there are many around him who are not, though.
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Old Nov 29th 2012, 3:47 pm
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Default Re: US economy: set to implode?

Originally Posted by Speedwell View Post
Folks, I used to be a sincere Libertarian with extra points in anarcho-capitalist studies. I bought gold, stored food and water purification supplies, bought books on self-sufficiency, and learned to garden and build a house. I'm not sorry for the time I spent learning; the disaster supplies will maybe come in handy in case a hurricane hits again like Ike did. What I do regret is buying into the "every man for himself" mentality that half the nation embraces. Every man is NOT for himself, and the purpose and measure of a functioning society is to take care of the people in it.

Most people I know who moan histrionically about the country "going to Hell" believe that it's because of people claiming benefits to which they are not entitled. It's hard to see which benefits they think people ARE entitled to. But they don't seem to have a problem with corporate entitlement or politicians and other "people in power" with their hands in other people's pockets. No, it's the homeless, ill, hungry, children, elderly, you name it, that are the problem with the economy, you see.
Ah, my brother classes himself as a libertarian and would probably blame a lot of what's happening on 'handouts', indeed, rather than corporate greed.
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Old Nov 29th 2012, 3:50 pm
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Default Re: US economy: set to implode?

He's probably pissed off about Obama getting in.

It depends on what your reasons are for emigrating whether it will be worth you doing so.
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Old Nov 29th 2012, 3:59 pm
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Default Re: US economy: set to implode?

Originally Posted by Speedwell View Post
Folks, I used to be a sincere Libertarian with extra points in anarcho-capitalist studies. I bought gold, stored food and water purification supplies, bought books on self-sufficiency, and learned to garden and build a house. I'm not sorry for the time I spent learning; the disaster supplies will maybe come in handy in case a hurricane hits again like Ike did. What I do regret is buying into the "every man for himself" mentality that half the nation embraces. Every man is NOT for himself, and the purpose and measure of a functioning society is to take care of the people in it.

Most people I know who moan histrionically about the country "going to Hell" believe that it's because of people claiming benefits to which they are not entitled. It's hard to see which benefits they think people ARE entitled to. But they don't seem to have a problem with corporate entitlement or politicians and other "people in power" with their hands in other people's pockets. No, it's the homeless, ill, hungry, children, elderly, you name it, that are the problem with the economy, you see.

The US Moto used to be "E Pluribus Unum" - roughly translates to "from the many, the one" - the US could not have got to where it is today without people working together. Building communities is what humans do. Being an isolated, individualistic person is fine u tip shit happens - even a tiny little turtle head...

Now it is "In God We Trust" - setting aside the obvious religious problems with this (a vengeful God, inconsistent, etc etc etc) - there's a pretty big separation of powers thing going on here, AND a mindset of 'leave it up to God' - not too dissimilar to "it is Allah's will".

And where has any of that got us, really?

To the original question... Is the US economy going to implode?

No.

But it will have it's adjustments...

Part of which will be people looking out for themselves more, before doing more of the mutual help/support thing that helped make the US great in the first place.
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Old Nov 29th 2012, 4:15 pm
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Default Re: US economy: set to implode?

Yesterday the New York Times had a front-page article on how after 5 years of steep decline California's economy is suddenly showing positive signs of growth. It was titled "California Finds Economic Gloom Starting to Lift" and the gist was that there's evidence that CA has turned the corner economically, and may be forging a path out of bad times that other severely recession-hit states may eventually follow....
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Old Nov 29th 2012, 4:18 pm
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Default Re: US economy: set to implode?

Originally Posted by snufkinette View Post
"I don't suggest y'all come over here any time soon. I feel like our economy is about to implode within the next 5-10 years."

Thus spake my brother from Georgia in a recent email. (My UKC husband and I are applying for his visa and hope to emigrate next year.) It could be that he's thinking of the Georgia economy in particular, but I think he does feel it's looking pretty bleak for the whole country.

What are others' thoughts on this?
Probably things will be pretty bumpy in both countries for the foreseeable future. So, I would say, you should relocate (or not) based on your own plans & priorities rather than macro forecasts.

I guess America is closer to North Korea, though.. in case the paratroopers are coming..
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Old Nov 29th 2012, 8:29 pm
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Default Re: US economy: set to implode?

Originally Posted by robin1234 View Post
Probably things will be pretty bumpy in both countries for the foreseeable future. So, I would say, you should relocate (or not) based on your own plans & priorities rather than macro forecasts.
Thanks for your reply. I didn't mean to suggest that we have any intention of cancelling or delaying our move. It's definitely our plan, but I was just curious to know people's reactions to my brother's rather bold statement. Interesting reading so far!
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Old Nov 29th 2012, 9:02 pm
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Default Re: US economy: set to implode?

Originally Posted by snufkinette View Post
"I don't suggest y'all come over here any time soon. I feel like our economy is about to implode within the next 5-10 years."

Thus spake my brother from Georgia in a recent email. (My UKC husband and I are applying for his visa and hope to emigrate next year.) It could be that he's thinking of the Georgia economy in particular, but I think he does feel it's looking pretty bleak for the whole country.

What are others' thoughts on this?
Did he predict the implosion of 07/08??

I think all western economies are going to struggle moving forward. Too much debt and a way more competitive world economy that will see China become the largest economy sooner rather than later. My biggest fear about the US is its inability to come to terms with the fact that it isn't number 1 (except militarily) any more. In this respect, I certainly see parallels between the US now and the UK in the 60's as the latter was moving into a post-empire age.
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Old Nov 29th 2012, 9:03 pm
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Default Re: US economy: set to implode?

I'm an optimist. Given the unique political and demographic advantages the US has over many strategic competitors and the exploding shale carbon driven oil economy of the US, I wouldn't bet against the US economy in the medium to longer term. Canada looks good too. We might not see 5% growth for a couple years, but after that I wouldn't be surprised.
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Old Nov 29th 2012, 9:11 pm
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Default Re: US economy: set to implode?

Originally Posted by Giantaxe View Post
My biggest fear about the US is its inability to come to terms with the fact that it isn't number 1 (except militarily) any more.
I keep hearing people say that but I'm not sure I understand why it's a big deal. So what? Beyond wounded pride, what are the real consequences of China becoming a bigger economy? Will the US somehow be a less attractive place to live and everyone flock to China?

Also, is this truly an irreversable trend? I don't necessarily buy it.
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Old Nov 29th 2012, 9:18 pm
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Default Re: US economy: set to implode?

Originally Posted by Hiro11 View Post
I keep hearing people say that but I'm not sure I understand why it's a big deal. So what? Beyond wounded pride, what are the real consequences of China becoming a bigger economy? Will the US somehow be a less attractive place to live and everyone flock to China?
It used to be easy to have a very comfortable standard of living in the US with very limited education. Many of the jobs that allowed that to be possible no longer exist in the US. And yet barriers to education are rising, namely in the form of reduced spending on education, vastly increased tuition fees for colleges etc. Similarly, social mobility in the US used to be higher than in other western countries. The reverse is now largely true. I find those two disconcerting trends that are indicative of how the US is struggling to adapt with a changing economic world.
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Old Nov 29th 2012, 9:26 pm
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Default Re: US economy: set to implode?

Originally Posted by Hiro11 View Post
I keep hearing people say that but I'm not sure I understand why it's a big deal. So what? Beyond wounded pride, what are the real consequences of China becoming a bigger economy? Will the US somehow be a less attractive place to live and everyone flock to China?

Also, is this truly an irreversable trend? I don't necessarily buy it.
It isn't just about the #1 economy, it's the tendency to say and believe that the US is best at everything and refusing to see the statistics that deny this. If one fails to see a deficit, in fact continues to believe there is no such deficit, one fails to do anything to correct it and falls further behind. Think healthcare; think infant mortality; think poverty and homelessness, think crime statistics; think incarceration statistics....Think of something I cannot write here except for productivity, and that is at the cost of quality of life for all but the Romneys of this country.
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