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-   -   Social Security in the current climate (https://britishexpats.com/forum/usa-57/social-security-current-climate-954422/)

Steerpike Mar 26th 2025 10:37 am

Social Security in the current climate
 
I was probably going to wait till I was 70 or so before claiming Social Security since I don't need the money, but with all the current 'noise' coming from Trump/DOGE/Musk, I'm thinking seriously about getting it now (mid-60s).

My thought is - they could either reduce the amount, or, simply make it really hard for a foreign-born citizen to claim. I am hearing that they are closing regional offices, and decimating the phone systems, making it virtually impossible to contact them (for identity verification, etc). It's unclear to me now whether as a foreign-born citizen I will have any trouble getting through the 'verification' stage.

Has anyone else gone through this thought process?

Mercury39 Mar 26th 2025 12:21 pm

Re: Social Security in the current climate
 
Was discussing this recently as I’d read this article from Dave Ramsey, which says everyone should take it at 62, you will be better off. The article explains how and why and it makes sense.

Steerpike Mar 26th 2025 4:06 pm

Re: Social Security in the current climate
 

Originally Posted by Mercury39 (Post 13304852)
Was discussing this recently as I’d read this article from Dave Ramsey, which says everyone should take it at 62, you will be better off. The article explains how and why and it makes sense.

Yeah, I'm starting to agree with his position. Yes, you get more dollars from SS if you wait longer (assuming you don't die!), BUT - if you have 'other money' and that money is well-invested (good returns), you may be better off taking SS and using it so you can leave your own money invested and keep those good returns.

But - I don't want to turn this into a 'what age to take SS at' discussion, I'm wondering whether people are worried that they will have difficulty making the claim thanks to Trump/DOGE/Musk shenanigans.

Lion in Winter Mar 26th 2025 9:13 pm

Re: Social Security in the current climate
 

Originally Posted by Steerpike (Post 13304864)
Yeah, I'm starting to agree with his position. Yes, you get more dollars from SS if you wait longer (assuming you don't die!), BUT - if you have 'other money' and that money is well-invested (good returns), you may be better off taking SS and using it so you can leave your own money invested and keep those good returns.

But - I don't want to turn this into a 'what age to take SS at' discussion, I'm wondering whether people are worried that they will have difficulty making the claim thanks to Trump/DOGE/Musk shenanigans.


Yes, worried. We need our SS payments, they are not "extras" for us. The worry stems from two sources, first the practical, bureaucratic side and second the anti-immigrant feeling and policies that are being promoted by the current administration.

Specifically:
  • While I am a US citizen (taken later, not born there), OH is not. Was a permanent resident. So both of us ought to be treated the same as US-born citizens in terms of getting our money, but in the current, nativist climate who knows.
  • Trump's willingness to use executive power, backed by the constitution and courts or not, to exert his personal power and preference over Federal agencies and quasi-Federal agencies.
  • The seeming inability or willingness of Congress to control that or act on it
  • We are tax-resident in the UK, not the US, another possible point of vulnerability.
  • Cuts to staffing making an already slow process (to start claiming) even slower and clunkier, especially for those not in the US.
  • We actually screenshot and downloaded our SS statements recently just in case some 22-year-old on Red Bull pushes the wrong button and deletes some data. Absurd, but fail-safe measure. :blink:

We are all at risk of having the amount reduced anyway, due to the upside-down curve of claimers vs younger workers paying in. That is irrespective of Trump, other than that in an ageing population, importing younger workers may be prudent.

robin1234 Mar 27th 2025 12:39 am

Re: Social Security in the current climate
 
Leaving aside the contemporary uncertainty of the Trump administration taking actions that were previously thought impossible in a democracy…

I’ve always been fascinated by the implacable logic of actuarial calculations vs. the simple fact that neither you nor the government know when you are going to die. It is prudent to plan for a very long life (95? 102?) because you or your carers will be glad that your income streams will be as high as possible going forward. That argues for delaying taking pensions and retirement income. But, of course, many people die younger than break-even point so would have been better off taking income as early as possible.

Lion in Winter Mar 27th 2025 2:17 am

Re: Social Security in the current climate
 

Originally Posted by robin1234 (Post 13304900)
Leaving aside the contemporary uncertainty of the Trump administration taking actions that were previously thought impossible in a democracy…

I’ve always been fascinated by the implacable logic of actuarial calculations vs. the simple fact that neither you nor the government know when you are going to die. It is prudent to plan for a very long life (95? 102?) because you or your carers will be glad that your income streams will be as high as possible going forward. That argues for delaying taking pensions and retirement income. But, of course, many people die younger than break-even point so would have been better off taking income as early as possible.


Another variable is how much income anyone has at their disposal - and this tends to determine when they can retire. It can easily be the case that someone must stagger on until 70 in order to then earn enough to live off, no matter how long or short their post-retirement life may end up being. So the actuarial bit drops away and necessity crowds in.

USADragon Mar 27th 2025 2:52 am

Re: Social Security in the current climate
 
Do the verification now (if you haven't already). Make sure you have a "my social security" account and keep a record of your employment info and up to date statement. Once you have that set up, I think the online claim to start receiving benefits is easy. My husband applied for his online and I don't remember any further verification being required. He took his slightly early at 66. I understand the logic of waiting for the maximum so that I will get more $$ should I outlive him, but tbh I don't trust them either. There's already a proposed bill to require beneficiaries to be citizens, and while it may not pass, who's to know what will come next. I'd rather spend their money now and save our own for later.

Glasgow Girl Mar 27th 2025 2:55 am

Re: Social Security in the current climate
 
Keep it simple …..a bird in hand is worth two in the bush!

Lion in Winter Mar 27th 2025 3:46 am

Re: Social Security in the current climate
 

Originally Posted by USADragon (Post 13304916)
Do the verification now (if you haven't already). Make sure you have a "my social security" account and keep a record of your employment info and up to date statement. Once you have that set up, I think the online claim to start receiving benefits is easy. My husband applied for his online and I don't remember any further verification being required. He took his slightly early at 66. I understand the logic of waiting for the maximum so that I will get more $$ should I outlive him, but tbh I don't trust them either. There's already a proposed bill to require beneficiaries to be citizens, and while it may not pass, who's to know what will come next. I'd rather spend their money now and save our own for later.


I don't think you can start verification until you want to start drawing benefits, can you?

I see this bill in the Senate about raising benefits,

https://www.help.senate.gov/dem/news...ocial-security

But I don't see one regarding citizenship.

ddsrph Mar 27th 2025 4:49 am

Re: Social Security in the current climate
 

Originally Posted by Mercury39 (Post 13304852)
Was discussing this recently as I’d read this article from Dave Ramsey, which says everyone should take it at 62, you will be better off. The article explains how and why and it makes sense.

I took mine at 62. I did a calculation and came up with numbers that would make it start to go negative after age 78 assuming you lived beyond 78. However if you take the money at 62 and put it into a good investment like the S&P 500 index fund I think you would be very far ahead.

Pierre_Tete Mar 27th 2025 5:29 am

Re: Social Security in the current climate
 

Originally Posted by ddsrph (Post 13304928)
I took mine at 62. I did a calculation and came up with numbers that would make it start to go negative after age 78 assuming you lived beyond 78. However if you take the money at 62 and put it into a good investment like the S&P 500 index fund I think you would be very far ahead.

If you wan to run various scenarios of claiming, especially if you have a spouse, and particularly a spouse who is significantly older or younger and may be claiming based on your own SS record I highly recommend this calculator:

https://opensocialsecurity.com

It also calculates survivor benefits payable after one spouse passes.


Pierre_Tete Mar 27th 2025 5:58 am

Re: Social Security in the current climate
 

Originally Posted by USADragon (Post 13304916)
Do the verification now (if you haven't already). Make sure you have a "my social security" account and keep a record of your employment info and up to date statement.

Be aware that since last year you can no-longer access the SSA website directly - you need to sign in via login.gov or ID.me. Setting up access via either of those might be problematic if you are outside the USA. I use login.gov because I've had an account there since getting enrolled in Global Entry several years ago. I don't remember all the steps used to validate my identity but I had a few problems with ID.me (which I tried for reasons other than SS). Here are some things you might encounter with one or the other:

1) Any method requires 2 factor authorization, which in its simplest form uses SMS text via a cellphone. I do not know if this will work with non-US numbers.
2) You might have to upload a photo of your US passport and maybe other documents using your cellphone. My older cellphone (Android 8 at the time) did not want to cooperate for some reason. I can't remember how I got around that tbh. Maybe I uploaded the docs some other way.
3) ID.me uses your US credit history as part of the validation process (I'm not sure if that also applies to login.gov). I had issues with that because I have security freezes on my credit. In theory that does not prevent ID.me from looking at my file (it just prevents someone opening an account using my name and SS number), but ID.me baulked at that and refused to validate me. So you might need to unfreeze things, and again, if you are overseas that might also prevent validation.

If you can get validated by one of those services, SSA then mails you a one-time login code for the first time you access the SSA website via the secure login process. Note that SSA will only give you the code via the mail, and I think I remember that can take up to 3 weeks. I do not know if they will mail your security code to an overseas address. If I had to suggest one method, I think login.gov is perhaps the easier.



Steerpike Mar 27th 2025 6:04 am

Re: Social Security in the current climate
 

Originally Posted by Lion in Winter (Post 13304922)
I don't think you can start verification until you want to start drawing benefits, can you?
...

Simple answer - you can submit the application up to 4 months ahead of when you want to start receiving payments. So - if you want to start receiving at 67, you can apply anytime after you are 66 and 8 months. If you want to start receiving at 70, you can submit the application anytime after you are 69 and 8 months, etc.

But the bigger question your question raises is 'what does 'verification' mean?' In order to submit the application, you need a 'mySocialSecurity' account. And in order to create a mySocialSecurity account, you need either a 'login.gov' or an 'id.me' login (and as I understand it, they are favoring the login.gov login; I had an id.me login and I was required to create a login.gov account anyway). In order to get the login.gov account, you have to do a fair amount of 'verification' - I think you have to submit details of your passport and/or drivers license, etc. I created my 'login.gov' a while back, and the 'mySocialSecurity' account decades ago - you need these accounts just to be able to check your balance, etc.

But once you have the login.gov account, and the mySocialSecurity account, is the application itself straight-forward or are there EXTRA verification steps required during the application process? That I intend to find out today as I'm going to try to submit my application.





Pierre_Tete Mar 27th 2025 6:19 am

Re: Social Security in the current climate
 

Originally Posted by Steerpike (Post 13304937)
But once you have the login.gov account, and the mySocialSecurity account, is the application itself straight-forward or are there EXTRA verification steps required during the application process? That I intend to find out today as I'm going to try to submit my application.

If your application is straightforward - in other words you are claiming based solely on your SSA contribution record and not your spouse - the process starts entirely online via your SSA account login. But be aware, if mine and my wife's recent experience is typical, the application will get stuck at 'Step 2' in the the review process. My application said to should take 30 days. After 60 days it was still in phase 2 so I called and they then proceeded to move on to the next step. Wife was similar, but with some more complexity. Basically, it looks like they will not proceed to finalize your claim until you follow up with a phone call. Maybe this is part of their process to weed out fraudulent claims?


Steerpike Mar 27th 2025 6:24 am

Re: Social Security in the current climate
 

Originally Posted by Pierre_Tete (Post 13304934)
Be aware that since last year you can no-longer access the SSA website directly - you need to sign in via login.gov or ID.me. Setting up access via either of those might be problematic if you are outside the USA. I use login.gov because I've had an account there since getting enrolled in Global Entry several years ago. I don't remember all the steps used to validate my identity but I had a few problems with ID.me (which I tried for reasons other than SS). Here are some things you might encounter with one or the other:

1) Any method requires 2 factor authorization, which in its simplest form uses SMS text via a cellphone. I do not know if this will work with non-US numbers.
2) You might have to upload a photo of your US passport and maybe other documents using your cellphone. My older cellphone (Android 8 at the time) did not want to cooperate for some reason. I can't remember how I got around that tbh. Maybe I uploaded the docs some other way.
3) ID.me uses your US credit history as part of the validation process (I'm not sure if that also applies to login.gov). I had issues with that because I have security freezes on my credit. In theory that does not prevent ID.me from looking at my file (it just prevents someone opening an account using my name and SS number), but ID.me baulked at that and refused to validate me. So you might need to unfreeze things, and again, if you are overseas that might also prevent validation.

If you can get validated by one of those services, SSA then mails you a one-time login code for the first time you access the SSA website via the secure login process. Note that SSA will only give you the code via the mail, and I think I remember that can take up to 3 weeks. I do not know if they will mail your security code to an overseas address. If I had to suggest one method, I think login.gov is perhaps the easier.

You posted this while I was creating my response, so I duplicated a lot of what you say here. Good information.

You raise the issues of getting the Id.me and login.gov accounts (I have both; IRS.gov only accepts id.me). I know it was a tricky/finicky process, but I don't remember the details now. I have no recollection of having to receive anything via USPS (snail) mail, but you could be right. It may depend on other factors (maybe if there are address changes involved, they want to send something by mail to verify?).

FYI, I set up 'Google Authenticator' as the 2FA step, rather than 'text message to phone', though I think they allow me to choose either at the time of login. Ever since my cell phone was stolen a while back, I started looking for alternative ways to do 2FA as I was dead in the water without my cell phone.

The big question I have is - ONCE you go through the hoops of setting up login.gov, is that 'it' as far as verification goes, or, do they have additional verification steps during the actual application process? I plan to find out today as I'm going to submit my application!


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