whatever

Gutted! We are getting ready to exchange within the next 2 weeks and I have to say the current rate is rather sobering! XE.com = 1.76... which to us little people would be an exchange of about 1.74!
Not 2 months ago we were looking at 1.84 up to 1.88
You just can't tell can you!

Can anyone recommend a good currency forecasting site just to get a feel for things (to be taken with a pinch of salt of course - 6 weeks ago 'they' were saying we would see the £1/$2 very soon - I WISH!)

sibsie

Speak to your bank in the US and try to negotiate a better rate that the standard tourist rate. Aim for the commerical rate, especially if you're transferring a lot of money.

scrubbedexpat099

Unfortunately no such thing, well if you knew what it was going to be then thats what the price would be now, give or take.

FX pundits are very much like share pundits, a pin probably is as effective.

If the Bank of England does gofor an early rate rise then you will be quids in, vice versa if the US Fed gets there first.

All very simplistic....

John Murray

Whatever -

I am almost at the same stage as yourself- we are movingto the US in June, and are watching the exchange rate on xec.om about 5 times a day to check on the prices.

This link

http://www.fxcm.com/currency_forecas...link+Ed+text+3

shows forecasts of Pound v Dollar for 1 month, 3 months and 1 year ahead.

According to that site - price in one months time is 1.83, 3 months time is 1.88 and 1 years time is 1.84.

The site claims that its index is "a compilation of the forecasts of 33 leading investment banks as of 3/15/04". So, we are about one month into their predictions and their rate of 1.83 is already looking extremely unlikely!!

I wish there was an exact science to work out the best move, but Bolier is right - there's no real way to tell.

When we'll be ready to exchange, a variation of 10c per pound will make almost a $4000 difference to the amount we get at the other end.

The rate last time I went to US was $1.6 or so, so the current rate is still better than a few months ago - however at one point we were hitting $1.90 and some people were predicing $2.00 !

scrubbedexpat099

I wonder what they were predicting a month ago...

You can buy forward if you wish to lock in to a rate for a given sum at a specific point in the future.

whatever

How do you do that? Can you do it through your bank?

weiser

yes you can lock the rate you want as long as you put down 10% now

try this site

http://www.hifx.co.uk

pedro66

Hi

We are waiting on our Visa's at the moment but have already changed our savings to US$, we used Nationwide International and have our money sitting in a savings account earning interest we also got $1.84 in March

http://www.nationwideinternational.com/

We also thought that even if everything didnt work out we would make a profit if the dollar returned to its normal level of around $1.45 making around $0.39 per dollar.

honeymommy

wow you did great,......

So lets pray it drops to GBP1.20 to the dollar, and then if you need to, you make a great profit changing yours back to GBP and we won't lose so much if we are forced to return to the UK in 6 weeks.....


howsat?????

Pulaski

There is often a lot of confusion about what the forward rate for a foreign currency (or any other commodity) is - it is not some speculative guess on what the actual rate will be at a future date.

:lecture: The forward rate is, with very few (and most peculiar) exceptions, the current "spot" rate adjusted for the difference in interest rates between the two currencies over the time to the date in future on which you want to make the exchange.

The future rate is effectively the exchange rate that makes you indifferent as to whether you exchange £ for $ today and put the $ on deposit until the future date, or keep your £ on deposit until the future date and exchange then.