Zen10

Sure. Ken Bickers from CU-Boulder and Michael Berry from CU-Denver.

http://www.colorado.edu/news/release...ado-study-says

paddingtongreen

Watching Morning Joe.

They put up the poll results, 32% say economy going in the wrong direction, 16% say economy going in the right direction. and they can't understand why the Prez. can survive this much upside-downness.

I scream at the box that it is the Congress as well, we are not idiots, we know the Congress blocked some of his key initiatives.

paddingtongreen

There are hundreds, probably thousands, of prognosticators. Since and including 1980, there have been eight elections, 256 possible combinations if we ignore third parties; some would have forecast correctly regardless of their method.

OT but interesting. What would be the state of things if the vice president was still the runner up in the presidential election. McCain would have been Obama's VP.

HarryTheSpider

The economy has a direction?!

MostlyYank

That's a definite maybe

Pete

HarryTheSpider

Thanks.

Models are helpful tools, in that by building a model that closely models a real system, we understand that system better.

I wonder to what extent it accounts for the phenomenon of 'people like us'? And also of Congress having a lower approval rating than the incumbent even though the economy sucks...?

HarryTheSpider

The debt crises in Europe and the negative impact austerity has had on growth and the overall economy in many EU countries, plus the large slowdown in China will not help sentiment in many places as we head into the quietest 2 economic quarters. That much of Europe takes much of the summer off, Christmas and then the Chinese New Year serve to reduce economic activity. In the middle of this is the election.

The GOP platform will cut much of government... Just look at the effects that had in Europe. I think Obama can point to this and similar things, painting a picture of very tough times if the country goes GOP.

Obama has achieved much in these troubled times, including with an arguably dysfunctional Congress. http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-me...ises/obameter/

Suggesting much of this, the foundation for recovery and a good society, is at danger if the country chooses GOP could be persuasive enough in swing states.... But it will be close...

Leslie

Oh good. No need to even have an election then!

What did these Nostradomi predict for 2000 ?

A. Bush would win.
B. Gore would win.
C. It would be the douchebaggiest boondoggle in the history of the world.
D. All of the above.

Sally Redux

Crying over unemployed people, wanting to close Guantanamo Bay, come out of Afghanistan tomorrow and stop using gas-guzzlers.

Leslie

And they put him on prime time.

Sally Redux

The speech that keeps on giving

Zen10

They correctly predicted 2000 as well. It's going to be interesting to see if they keep their 100% record. They are one of the few models that focuses on the electoral college. Romney, and Mr Under Three Hours will be bad news for America so let's hope they are wrong this time.

Octang Frye

Am I the only one who enjoyed Clint's speech? It was ad-libbed, and come-on, it's fricking Clint Eastwood!

sir_eccles

While their prediction for 2000 may match the "official result", it is worth pointing out many people think the result might have gone the other way had they actually counted the votes.

Derrygal

I bloody well hope not!!! I'll actually be in the UK during the US election. I have told my kids that if Romney is elected not to bother showing up at the airport to meet me. I probably won't come back here!! (wish it was that simple).