CIA Predicts The EU To Collapse in 15 Years
Jan 20th 2005, 2:20 pm
#1
Thread Starter
Joined: Jun 2004
Posts: 3,649
CIA Predicts The EU To Collapse in 15 Years
How's this for a report.
http://news.scotsman.com/topics.cfm?tid=591&id=56762005
THE CIA has predicted that the European Union will break-up within 15 years unless it radically reforms its ailing welfare systems.
The report by the intelligence agency, which forecasts how the world will look in 2020, warns that Europe could be dragged into economic decline by its ageing population. It also predicts the end of Nato and post-1945 military alliances.
In a devastating indictment of EU economic prospects, the report warns: "The current EU welfare state is unsustainable and the lack of any economic revitalisation could lead to the splintering or, at worst, disintegration of the EU, undermining its ambitions to play a heavyweight international role."
It adds that the EU’s economic growth rate is dragged down by Germany and its restrictive labour laws. Reforms there - and in France and Italy to lesser extents - remain key to whether the EU as a whole can break out of its "slow-growth pattern". . . .
The report says: "Either European countries adapt their workforces, reform their social welfare, education and tax systems, and accommodate growing immigrant populations [chiefly from Muslim countries] or they face a period of protracted economic stasis."
As a result of the increased immigration needed, the report predicts that Europe’s Muslim population is set to increase from around 13% today to between 22% and 37% of the population by 2025, potentially triggering tensions.
http://news.scotsman.com/topics.cfm?tid=591&id=56762005
THE CIA has predicted that the European Union will break-up within 15 years unless it radically reforms its ailing welfare systems.
The report by the intelligence agency, which forecasts how the world will look in 2020, warns that Europe could be dragged into economic decline by its ageing population. It also predicts the end of Nato and post-1945 military alliances.
In a devastating indictment of EU economic prospects, the report warns: "The current EU welfare state is unsustainable and the lack of any economic revitalisation could lead to the splintering or, at worst, disintegration of the EU, undermining its ambitions to play a heavyweight international role."
It adds that the EU’s economic growth rate is dragged down by Germany and its restrictive labour laws. Reforms there - and in France and Italy to lesser extents - remain key to whether the EU as a whole can break out of its "slow-growth pattern". . . .
The report says: "Either European countries adapt their workforces, reform their social welfare, education and tax systems, and accommodate growing immigrant populations [chiefly from Muslim countries] or they face a period of protracted economic stasis."
As a result of the increased immigration needed, the report predicts that Europe’s Muslim population is set to increase from around 13% today to between 22% and 37% of the population by 2025, potentially triggering tensions.
Jan 20th 2005, 2:27 pm
#2
@matthewb76
Joined: Jul 2003
Location: Missouri
Posts: 21,886
Re: CIA Predicts The EU To Collapse in 15 Years
ohhh...
Jan 20th 2005, 2:29 pm
#3
Thread Starter
Joined: Jun 2004
Posts: 3,649
Re: CIA Predicts The EU To Collapse in 15 Years
Of course, this is from the CIA that has done such a sterling job over the last 10 years.
It's also from the same agency that laughed at the idea of the Soviet Union collapsing in 1989.
It's also from the same agency that laughed at the idea of the Soviet Union collapsing in 1989.
Jan 20th 2005, 2:31 pm
#4
@matthewb76
Joined: Jul 2003
Location: Missouri
Posts: 21,886
Re: CIA Predicts The EU To Collapse in 15 Years
Originally Posted by cuckoofrommars
It's also from the same agency that laughed at the idea of the Soviet Union collapsing in 1989.
If the EU starts to have problems, do you think people will fix it?
I do.
The CIA seems to think it will be left to rot.
I really do think that the USA is paranoid of the EU.
Jan 20th 2005, 2:43 pm
#5
Thread Starter
Joined: Jun 2004
Posts: 3,649
Re: CIA Predicts The EU To Collapse in 15 Years
I do think people will try to fix it, but end up over regulating it. It's certainly within most European-bloc countries interests to tie themselves to a good economic market what with China and India growing as fast as they are. In 10-15 years, if the EU doesn't start growing faster it could be behind them both and the US.
Do you think the chiefs at the CIA bet on sports? I bet they never ever win.
Do you think the chiefs at the CIA bet on sports? I bet they never ever win.
Jan 20th 2005, 2:46 pm
#6
@matthewb76
Joined: Jul 2003
Location: Missouri
Posts: 21,886
Re: CIA Predicts The EU To Collapse in 15 Years
Originally Posted by cuckoofrommars
In 10-15 years, if the EU doesn't start growing faster it could be behind them both and the US.
it's not just an EU problem, at least the EU is looking to import labour and widen its labour force bringing in new countries.
Jan 20th 2005, 2:56 pm
#7
Thread Starter
Joined: Jun 2004
Posts: 3,649
Re: CIA Predicts The EU To Collapse in 15 Years
You know I have this big fancy theory that the United States won't exist as is for too much longer after a big battle over the Constitution and America's place under international law. I really get the feeling that the US will end up in a post-constitutional phase with states gaining alot more power than they currently have.
Still, at the moment the US is in far far better shape than most European countries. But something that bothers me a great deal is the current admin intentionally farting about with the numbers. The employment anf GDP growth figures are all good and correct. But the deficit numbers have been ****ed around with. The claim is that in one quarter the deficit has been slashed and everything is hunky-dory. This was done by measuring the current deficit against an amount prospected to have been spent, but actually wasn't. So in other words the amount of deficit is the same, but it could have been worse, but we didn't spend it, so yay us! That's called lying. If this sort of "ooh isn't the economy doing amazingly!" nonsense keeps up without any faster growth the US does have a tough time ahead.
Still, at the moment the US is in far far better shape than most European countries. But something that bothers me a great deal is the current admin intentionally farting about with the numbers. The employment anf GDP growth figures are all good and correct. But the deficit numbers have been ****ed around with. The claim is that in one quarter the deficit has been slashed and everything is hunky-dory. This was done by measuring the current deficit against an amount prospected to have been spent, but actually wasn't. So in other words the amount of deficit is the same, but it could have been worse, but we didn't spend it, so yay us! That's called lying. If this sort of "ooh isn't the economy doing amazingly!" nonsense keeps up without any faster growth the US does have a tough time ahead.
Jan 20th 2005, 3:01 pm
#8
@matthewb76
Joined: Jul 2003
Location: Missouri
Posts: 21,886
Re: CIA Predicts The EU To Collapse in 15 Years
Originally Posted by cuckoofrommars
You know I have this big fancy theory that the United States won't exist as is for too much longer after a big battle over the Constitution and America's place under international law. I really get the feeling that the US will end up in a post-constitutional phase with states gaining alot more power than they currently have.
Still, at the moment the US is in far far better shape than most European countries. But something that bothers me a great deal is the current admin intentionally farting about with the numbers. The employment anf GDP growth figures are all good and correct. But the deficit numbers have been ****ed around with. The claim is that in one quarter the deficit has been slashed and everything is hunky-dory. This was done by measuring the current deficit against an amount prospected to have been spent, but actually wasn't. So in other words the amount of deficit is the same, but it could have been worse, but we didn't spend it, so yay us! That's called lying. If this sort of "ooh isn't the economy doing amazingly!" nonsense keeps up without any faster growth the US does have a tough time ahead.
Still, at the moment the US is in far far better shape than most European countries. But something that bothers me a great deal is the current admin intentionally farting about with the numbers. The employment anf GDP growth figures are all good and correct. But the deficit numbers have been ****ed around with. The claim is that in one quarter the deficit has been slashed and everything is hunky-dory. This was done by measuring the current deficit against an amount prospected to have been spent, but actually wasn't. So in other words the amount of deficit is the same, but it could have been worse, but we didn't spend it, so yay us! That's called lying. If this sort of "ooh isn't the economy doing amazingly!" nonsense keeps up without any faster growth the US does have a tough time ahead.
that's why you have a Masters and I have a HND.
Jan 20th 2005, 3:04 pm
#9
Thread Starter
Joined: Jun 2004
Posts: 3,649
Re: CIA Predicts The EU To Collapse in 15 Years
Yeah but I have a one in Humanities. Which means I earn **** all and can help no one.
And I get headaches trying to figure out my insurance.
And I get headaches trying to figure out my insurance.
Jan 20th 2005, 3:23 pm
#10
You fat bastard
Joined: Aug 2003
Location: Columbus, OH, US of A
Posts: 523
Re: CIA Predicts The EU To Collapse in 15 Years
Maybe they should let people invest their social security on the stockmarket.... 
Think the addition of new countries in the EU and so the integration of their workforces will more than make up for the aging population. Actually, I think the admission of these countries is probably a tactic to address this problem.
Why don't they predict the breakup of the US if the red state morons keep going for the Bush dynasty and we don't get someone more moderate in.
Think the addition of new countries in the EU and so the integration of their workforces will more than make up for the aging population. Actually, I think the admission of these countries is probably a tactic to address this problem.
Why don't they predict the breakup of the US if the red state morons keep going for the Bush dynasty and we don't get someone more moderate in.
Jan 20th 2005, 3:36 pm
#11
Joined: Aug 2003
Location: East Seaxe
Posts: 72,545
Re: CIA Predicts The EU To Collapse in 15 Years
Oh it's all right. If it all falls apart the U.S. can just invade and rescue us.
Jan 20th 2005, 5:09 pm
#12
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Feb 2004
Posts: 14,577
Re: CIA Predicts The EU To Collapse in 15 Years
Here's an interesting artical on SS in the NY Times;
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/01/16/ma...d=1&oref=login
(You'll need to register unless you have FF and BugMeNot)
-tom
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/01/16/ma...d=1&oref=login
(You'll need to register unless you have FF and BugMeNot)
-tom
Jan 20th 2005, 5:30 pm
#13
@matthewb76
Joined: Jul 2003
Location: Missouri
Posts: 21,886
Re: CIA Predicts The EU To Collapse in 15 Years
Originally Posted by anotherlimey
Here's an interesting artical on SS in the NY Times;
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/01/16/ma...d=1&oref=login
(You'll need to register unless you have FF and BugMeNot)
-tom
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/01/16/ma...d=1&oref=login
(You'll need to register unless you have FF and BugMeNot)
-tom
Jan 20th 2005, 5:31 pm
#14
@matthewb76
Joined: Jul 2003
Location: Missouri
Posts: 21,886
Re: CIA Predicts The EU To Collapse in 15 Years
Originally Posted by anotherlimey
Here's an interesting artical on SS in the NY Times;
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/01/16/ma...d=1&oref=login
(You'll need to register unless you have FF and BugMeNot)
-tom
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/01/16/ma...d=1&oref=login
(You'll need to register unless you have FF and BugMeNot)
-tom
Jan 20th 2005, 5:36 pm
#15
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Feb 2004
Posts: 14,577
Re: CIA Predicts The EU To Collapse in 15 Years
Originally Posted by Manc
can't read it, do us a favor and cut n paste mate
-tom