freerskier

notaclue

We're looking at buying remote land in Scotland when Brexit crashes the economy - Not for personal gain, we simply want to own a piece of home for sh*ts and giggles. Other than that I wish there was a way to get my family over here so they can abandon the sinking ship. I truly wish Scotland would just gain its independence and cut ties with this Brexit nonsense and return some stability (To Scotland at least).

FYI I had originally wanted to vote 'leave' but was out of the country at voting so didn't get the chance - I truly wish I'd voted to stay.

As far as financially, I don't think anyone is questioning that the pound will fall through the floor for several months at the very least when it happens before climbing - How well it recovers is the real question.

My 'common sense' logic would be abandon ship and take the booty with ye afore she sinks.

freerskier

Thanks notaclue - pretty much what I thought as I was writing the post really. The pound will get clobbered probably, the Euro may take a hit too....And, as you say how strong/long the recovery would be is anyone's guess.

Total agreement with the Scotland thing although the social finances, healthcare systems, taxation and how Scotland could go it alone are interesting. That said if I were to go back it would probably be to Scotland anyway. I'll be refreshing my XE account shortly.

cranston

Trying to predict long-term currency movements or economic events is a fools game.

Invest your money in a good fund like Terry Smiths Fundsmith fund. Quality stocks are the place to be.

scrubbedexpat099

You will find many threads on here discussing exchange rates and movements, agree anybody who got it right was more by luck.

StuBear65

Unfortunately no one can predict the outcome of Brexit; Mrs May has quite brilliantly managed to alienate both sides of the argument with her total disregard for any other opinion but hers, a skill she acquired in the Home Office! I too voted leave, but with the current shambolic political situation in the UK I think I would prefer to stay now.

Oh well, at least I'm moving to a stable political environment in the US!

freerskier

Yeah, I saw that guys success etc. But is it just - and his success - UK based?

freerskier

Nice x 2. Brexit is freaky but I live here now. Tough choice if such a thing exists.

cranston

The fund is UK based in GBP and I am not sure what countries they accept investors from.

His success is based on global investing. Their youtube page explains their investing process and there is lots on the web about them.

https://www.youtube.com/user/Fundsmith

freerskier

AndyEODV8

freerskier

vindico

Fortunately, and largely by happy accident, I moved a load of GBP out to USD at $1.41 over several transactions. So I managed to ride the peak.

However, I think <$1.30 is undervaluing GBP. I am no expert, but I do follow GBP-USD closely as I run an export business, and I think that $1.35-1.40 is probably a natural value right now based on the fundamentals of the economy. Anything else is just 'political weather' blowing the rate around.

I also think that the current hammering is due to latest political posturing ahead of the next round of negotiations and that at the end of the negotiations are more reasonable outcome will have been achieved and GBP will recover a little. (There are always hard line public statements in advance, and a more emollient tone afterwards once progress is 'hailed').

Certainly don't take my advice as gospel, but I still have a load of GBP in the UK and if I were in your position I would say if you are able to leave it I would sit tight and wait for GBP to come back to the $1.35 range and then bring across.

isi16

Just adding my tuppenceworth here , pun intended. For various reasons my immigration journey has taken almost 2 1/2 years and have watched the value of my cash I will be taking over to the states loose big style-and made me weep! I have kept in touch with a broker that I'm using to transfer my cash over in a few months when I've settled my affairs in Scotland. His advice last week is still to hold on until I absolutely need to transfer money and only as much as I need interim if needed for a house before the end of the year. All the 'experts' have said the dollar pound rate is fully expected to be back at $1.40 to $1.45 by November/december. Only time will be the correct prediction I think. Brexit has been a twat!

cranston

There are no experts when it comes to currency movements. There are only people who don't know and people who don't know they don't know.

Signed
An Expert