RICH

I know. We are doing "What if". Love is the reason a lot of people here want a visa.

ian-mstm

Since we're playing with conjecture... if there ever was a visa that required love, it's the H-4. No one in their right mind would voluntarily accept such a shitty visa if it wasn't for love!

Ian

jeffreyhy

It seems that your thinking is limited to family-based, or perhaps even marriage-based, visa petitions? (Although I-129 is an employment-based petition, I expect that you meant I-129f?) A few statistics to help understand the magnitude of USCIS' workload:

Persons Obtaining LPR Status
2011 1,062 thousand total
2011 482 thousand newly arrived
2011 580 thousand by AOS
includes:
2011 79 thousand spouses, newly arrived
2011 150 thousand spouses, by AOS not K1 not self-petitioning
2011 24 thousand spouses, by AOS from K1
2011 5 thousand spouses, by AOS self-petitioning

2002 1,059 thousand total
2002 384 thousand newly arrived
2002 675 thousand by adjustment of status
includes:
2002 54 thousand spouses, newly arrived
2002 238 thousand by AOS

Low 703 thousand total in 2003
High 1,266 thousand total in 2006

Persons Naturalized
2011 756 thousand filed
2011 694 thousand naturalized
2011 57 thousand denied

2002 701 thousand filed
2002 573 thousand naturalized
2002 140 thousand denied

Low 523 thousand filed in 2003
High 1,383 thousand filed in 2007

Applications for Benefits
Dec 2010 ~300 thousand received
Dec 2010 ~300 thousand approved
Dec 2010 ~1,600 thousand pending

Dec 2012 ~430 thousand received
Dec 2012 ~365 thousand approved
Dec 2012 ~2,410 thousand pending

Low received ~300,000 Dec 2010
High received ~600,000 Feb 2012 and Oct 2012

Low approved ~300 thousand Oct, Nov, & Dec 2011
High approved ~600 thousand Apr 2012

Low pending ~1,600 thousand Feb 2011
high pending ~2,400 thousand Dec 2012

My observations:
- There significant are spike and dips month-to-month and year-to-year, like a roller coaster.
- The variations are not possible to predict, and even if they could be predicted they are too large and too rapid to follow by hiring and firing people.
- Only a very small portion involve spouses and fiancees.

Regards, JEff

slummymummy

So the numbers have not changed much since 2002 but there was a spike in 2006-2007 for the 2 first categories you quoted. Interesting. Just before the financial crisis. Maybe it was an upward trend that was killed off by the financial crisis that started in 2008. Just speculation... it could be "random".

Do you happen to know/remember anything about waiting times for these years? Do they correspond...? And yes I meant I-129f. (Not so good at the K-1 route as it was not one I took myself.)

--------------
Also I have one more thing for my list of "visa" rules I would change! If you lose your green card or have it stolen, you have to pay about $400 to get a new one. When you lose your drivers license it's free or $25 depending on if it was stolen or just lost. I would significantly lower the fee for replacing a green card, this seems outrageous.

(Luckily I did not have to do this as my GC was expired anyway when it got stolen and I had already paid the hefty fee for filing the I-751 and will hopefully get a new GC later this year.)

scrubbedexpat099

There was a bubble due to the last amnesty.

slummymummy

Oh ok. So it seems there is no rising trend anymore due to more online romances and increased traveling etc.

jeffreyhy

I pulled the 2002 and 2011 numbers from the DHS 2011 Yearbook of Immigration Statistics. Look through it yourself - it's only 115 pages - to see what trends you can identify. You can find out how USCIS analizes its costs and determines what fees should be here:
Federal Register Volume 75, Number 112 (Friday, June 11, 2010)

I'm curious as to what you think would be a reasonable cost to cover the expenses associated with replacing a lost greencard, and why you think the cost to replace a lost drivers license is a valid comparison. Regards, JEff

slummymummy

Good idea! I wish someone would pay me for it though...

This sounds interesting.

Both are a small plastic card with a photo and a name on them. If it really costs that much more to replace a GC fair enough. Does it?

Noorah101

But have you noticed how much more sophisticated, and how much more information, is on the GC? A DL doesn't have all that.

Rene

Apfelkuchen

What info is on the GC? I don't have one (yet! ), so I'm curious.

With the new fee, USCIS have put a price of $165 on issuing a GC. What accounts for the difference between that and the ca. $400 cited by Slummymummy to replace a lost or stolen card? Or is the hefty fee just meant to encourage carefulness?

Noorah101

Oh no! It's top secret and you will just have to inspect both sides of your GC very closely to see all the interesting details!

I thought of that, too. I'm not sure, but it's a good point.

Rene

Steve_

If I was writing the laws, the US immigration system would be entirely different to what it is now, but no-one is going to let me write them.

First thing I'd do is make the application for a visa a single-step process, instead of this nonsense of applying to USCIS and then USCIS passes it onto the NVC run by the State Dept. Then you have to apply separately for a visa. It's crazy, just have one application form, one background check, send in your passport at the correct time, get the visa.

I'd also merge USCIS and CBP on the immigration front so you'd deal with one agency rather than three as at present. Also possibly take responsibility off the DoL for labour certifications and turn that over to one agency as well.

Also massively increase the quota for employment-based immigrant visas and use a points system like the UK, Canada and Australia use.

Scrap all the bizarre family-based immigration categories and parents of US citizens would no longer be in the "immediately available" category.

Have some sort of Schengen-style arrangement between the US and Canada as well and possibly some of the Caribbean countries too.

It's all pretty obvious really, but Congress doesn't do obvious.

All I can say is, wait until you see what the sticking points are over the EU-US FTA, that will blow your mind.

slummymummy

Nope I didn't notice. And now I don't have one to check, boo-hoo! Apfel will have to tell me when she gets hers. My new drivers license looks pretty shiny and sophisticated though. And my teeth look whiter than in real life, in fact I look american.

slummymummy

Thanks for that, it is a good point! I wouldn't mind so much paying that for a replacement but not the $400+ which I think it's crazy unless someone can tell me why. Especially for stolen with a police report.

Steve_

"Nowadays" - the I-94 requirement was introduced in 1924, IIRC and was basically intended to be used primarily by ship passengers and back then you would rarely cross the ocean more than once a year. This is one of the reasons Canadians were made exempt, because they could cross by land so it didn't make sense.

And... it's still in use. In fact it's called a "departure record" but I-94s for employment purposes are usually stamped "multiple entry", this came about back in the 1930s when people could use this new-fangled thing called an "aircraft" so it became awkward to re-issue the I-94.

This is how stupid bureaucracy starts. "Oh we can't change that, it will invalidate x decades worth of caselaw."