Gary Butner

My Russian stepdaughter and her son are in the First Family Preference, and
we have already received approval from the Nebreask Service Center, and the
National Visa Center. We paid the $760 fee for the visas 3 months ago to the
Moscow Consulate.
However, their priority date is August 30, 2002, and I have noticed the
dates for Russia and almost all places have moved only a couple of months in
the last year. Can anyone tell me why the priority dates are not moving, and
what and when we can expect to hear from the consuate? We have already been
waiting almost 4 years, and with the current slowdown it is looking like it
will take 12 to 15 years, and this for the First Family Preference.

Gary

amanda772007

Gary Butner wrote:
    > My Russian stepdaughter and her son are in the First Family Preference, and
    > we have already received approval from the Nebreask Service Center, and the
    > National Visa Center. We paid the $760 fee for the visas 3 months ago to the
    > Moscow Consulate.
    > However, their priority date is August 30, 2002, and I have noticed the
    > dates for Russia and almost all places have moved only a couple of months in
    > the last year. Can anyone tell me why the priority dates are not moving, and
    > what and when we can expect to hear from the consuate? We have already been
    > waiting almost 4 years, and with the current slowdown it is looking like it
    > will take 12 to 15 years, and this for the First Family Preference.

It will move soon enough. Hang on.

    >
    > Gary

Folinskyinla

    > My Russian stepdaughter and her son are in the First Family
    > Preference, and
    > we have already received approval from the Nebreask Service Center,
    > and the
    > National Visa Center. We paid the $760 fee for the visas 3 months ago
    > to the
    > Moscow Consulate.
    > However, their priority date is August 30, 2002, and I have noticed
    > the
    > dates for Russia and almost all places have moved only a couple of
    > months in
    > the last year. Can anyone tell me why the priority dates are not
    > moving, and
    > what and when we can expect to hear from the consuate? We have already
    > been
    > waiting almost 4 years, and with the current slowdown it is looking
    > like it
    > will take 12 to 15 years, and this for the First Family Preference.
    > Gary

Gary:

This is educated speculation --

First -- remember that the "245(i)" window for establishing priority
dates was December 21, 2000 to April 30, 2001. Furthermore, many of the
245(i) filings were made quite late in the time period -- many in the
very last week.

Second -- The statutory visa allocation system is based upon immigrant
visa being the preferred mode of immigrating -- it is the Department of
State that allocates the visa numbers. In theory, statesided adjustment
of status is to be a rarely used exception to the preferred system and
its run by DHS. Decades ago, the former INS would obtain a visa number
early on in the adjustment process. Now, DHS adjustments don't even
enter the visa allocation system until they are ready to be COMPLETED.

What you now have is analogous to the picutres of a thin snake which has
swollowed a large animal and you see the big bulge working its way down
the snake.

Visa numbers ARE being used -- but right now, the 245(i) bulge of
filings has to be digested first. It will take some time to get to
April 30, 2001 and then should move pretty fast. [Warning -- there is a
possiblity they may go backwards from time to time as more completed
adjustments come on line from time to time. This is happening in the
employment side of things in a big way].

--
Posted via http://expatforums.com

Gary Butner

Is that just speculation on your part, or do you know something of which I
am not aware? It has moved only 2 months in the past year.

Gary

<[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected] oups.com...
    > Gary Butner wrote:
    >> My Russian stepdaughter and her son are in the First Family Preference,
    >> and
    >> we have already received approval from the Nebreask Service Center, and
    >> the
    >> National Visa Center. We paid the $760 fee for the visas 3 months ago to
    >> the
    >> Moscow Consulate.
    >> However, their priority date is August 30, 2002, and I have noticed
    >> the
    >> dates for Russia and almost all places have moved only a couple of months
    >> in
    >> the last year. Can anyone tell me why the priority dates are not moving,
    >> and
    >> what and when we can expect to hear from the consuate? We have already
    >> been
    >> waiting almost 4 years, and with the current slowdown it is looking like
    >> it
    >> will take 12 to 15 years, and this for the First Family Preference.
    > It will move soon enough. Hang on.
    >> Gary
    >

Folinskyinla

    > Is that just speculation on your part, or do you know something of
    > which I
    > am not aware? It has moved only 2 months in the past year.
    > Gary
    > <[email protected]> wrote in message
    > news:[email protected] oups.com...
    > > Gary Butner wrote:
    > >> My Russian stepdaughter and her son are in the First Family
    > >> Preference,
    > >> and
    > >> we have already received approval from the Nebreask Service Center,
    > >> and
    > >> the
    > >> National Visa Center. We paid the $760 fee for the visas 3 months
    > >> ago to
    > >> the
    > >> Moscow Consulate.
    > >> However, their priority date is August 30, 2002, and I have noticed
    > >> the
    > >> dates for Russia and almost all places have moved only a couple of
    > >> months
    > >> in
    > >> the last year. Can anyone tell me why the priority dates are not
    > >> moving,
    > >> and
    > >> what and when we can expect to hear from the consuate? We have
    > >> already
    > >> been
    > >> waiting almost 4 years, and with the current slowdown it is looking
    > >> like
    > >> it
    > >> will take 12 to 15 years, and this for the First Family Preference.
    > > It will move soon enough. Hang on.
    > >> Gary
    > >

Hi Gary:

It will move -- when we don't know. I know that I do not have access to
the actual numbers of applicants. The problem is that rather than
giving you an actual number [e.g. "you are #5,283 on the waiting list],
they give a cut-off DATE. Let me make another analogy is you will:
assume a popular movie -- theater has 200 seats and the movie is shown
ever 2 hours.

There is one waiting for the movie when 600 people show up between 6:30
and 6:32 pm. The movie will be shown to 200 people at 7:00, 9:00 and
11:00 pm -- but the "cut off time" will move only 2 minutes.

BTW, I have one client in removal proceedings with an April 24, 2001
priority date. So, I'm simply giving the explanations I'm giving her
every month.

--
Posted via http://expatforums.com

Gary Butner

Since my stepdaughter falls in the Europe First Preference, and the date for
that catagory is now 22 April 2001, shouldn't we be close to the bulge you
mentioned be just about digested?

Gary


"Folinskyinla" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected].. .
    >> My Russian stepdaughter and her son are in the First Family
    >> Preference, and
    >> we have already received approval from the Nebreask Service Center,
    >> and the
    >> National Visa Center. We paid the $760 fee for the visas 3 months ago
    >> to the
    >> Moscow Consulate.
    >> However, their priority date is August 30, 2002, and I have noticed
    >> the
    >> dates for Russia and almost all places have moved only a couple of
    >> months in
    >> the last year. Can anyone tell me why the priority dates are not
    >> moving, and
    >> what and when we can expect to hear from the consuate? We have already
    >> been
    >> waiting almost 4 years, and with the current slowdown it is looking
    >> like it
    >> will take 12 to 15 years, and this for the First Family Preference.
    >> Gary
    > Gary:
    > This is educated speculation --
    > First -- remember that the "245(i)" window for establishing priority
    > dates was December 21, 2000 to April 30, 2001. Furthermore, many of the
    > 245(i) filings were made quite late in the time period -- many in the
    > very last week.
    > Second -- The statutory visa allocation system is based upon immigrant
    > visa being the preferred mode of immigrating -- it is the Department of
    > State that allocates the visa numbers. In theory, statesided adjustment
    > of status is to be a rarely used exception to the preferred system and
    > its run by DHS. Decades ago, the former INS would obtain a visa number
    > early on in the adjustment process. Now, DHS adjustments don't even
    > enter the visa allocation system until they are ready to be COMPLETED.
    > What you now have is analogous to the picutres of a thin snake which has
    > swollowed a large animal and you see the big bulge working its way down
    > the snake.
    > Visa numbers ARE being used -- but right now, the 245(i) bulge of
    > filings has to be digested first. It will take some time to get to
    > April 30, 2001 and then should move pretty fast. [Warning -- there is a
    > possiblity they may go backwards from time to time as more completed
    > adjustments come on line from time to time. This is happening in the
    > employment side of things in a big way].
    > --
    > Posted via http://expatforums.com

ian-mstm

Perhaps... there may only be 100 people ahead of you now... or there might still be 15,000 people ahead of you! You ask these questions as though the dates bear some resemblence to reality! Following processing dates is the first step on the road to madness!

Ian

Folinskyinla

Hi Gary:

On the pedantic side, she is in the Worldwide category. The only regional allocations are in the "diversity" lottery. Otherwise, unless a country hits a percentage ceiling, the world-wide cutoff is the applicable date [notice that none of the cutoffs go past the worldwide -- which can have some mighty strange effects at some times - a topic not applicable here].

Right now FB-1 **IS** in the bulge. This has happened in other categories before -- once the April 2001 bulge is digested, the numbers advance dramatically.

On top of things, the advance of Family Based numbers are going to be adversely affected by developments on the employment based end of the shop. For years, employment based applications were bollixed up in labor certification hell -- accordingly, they did not even get into the visa allocation system at all. Since too few labor based cases were documentarily ready for visa numbers, the categories were UNDER-utilized.

The way the allocation system works, unused visa numbers in the employment based end of the shop are "recaptured" for use the following year in the family based end of the shop. Well, now the 2001 bulge has now burst out of labor certificate hell causing huge backlogs in the employment based visa allocations -- result, there will be no numbers to be "recaptured" for family based from now on.

Also, expect the 2002 "Child Status Protection Act" to have an effect. In the past, many of the "derivative" children of Family Based beneficiaries would "age-out" and not use the avaiable visa numbers. That will be reduced in the future and there will be more "derivative" numbers used from the same size visa pool.

Bottom line: you hae got to be patient. They are issuing visas -- but there are a lot of people in line ahead of you.